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Daily Fantasy Football: DraftKings Week 6 Picks

Tyler Eifert, Daily fantasy Football

Interest in daily fantasy sports has never been higher.  While DFS controversies both real and fake swirl in the mainstream media, major sites like DraftKings recently reported recorded participation rates.  The state of the industry is strong.

More players are crunching more data and playing more contests than ever before.  Throughout the NFL season, PlayerProfiler and XN Sports will be providing a handful of top value plays on DraftKings each week.

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–              $7 million prize pool
–              $1.2 million first place prize
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–              Top 83,000 finishing positions are paid out
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The following players are noteworthy value plays who could either serve as the cornerstones of an optimal cash lineup or add upside variance to a GPP/tournament roster, or both.

The Great Recovery

Sam Bradford, $6,000
Projected PPR Fantasy Points: 21.55

With every passing week, Sam Bradford looks more and more like a quarterback who lost a season and has finally regained his rhythm.  Over the last two games, Bradford is averaging 300 yards and 2.5 touchdowns.

Most encouraging, Bradford has honed in on the deep ball specifically.

The Eagles face the Giants in week 6.  New York just gave up over 250-yards and two touchdowns (including a mere 2 sacks and zero turnovers) to Colin Kaepernick, one of the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL.  Giants are allowing 22.8 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the No. 10 friendliest defense for fantasy QBs.  Note that includes games against mobile QBs and game managers Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick, and Kirk Cousins.  However, two of the league’s more prolific pocket passers, Matt Ryan and Tony Romo, both exceeded 350-yards passing versus Giants generous secondary.   Week 5 is shaping up as the ultimate “I’m back” game for Sam Bradford.

 

The Johnson to Grab Duke Johnson, $4,500.00 Projected PPR Fantasy Points: 13.88 After missing parts of training camp with a hamstring strain and concussion, Duke Johnson started the season with a limited role within the Browns offense.  After catching zero passes in weeks 1 and 2, Johnson was suddenly targeted heavily in the passing game in week 3 recording six receptions.  Then in week 4, Duke Johnson received a total of 17 touches for 116 yards and a touchdown, including 9 catches on 10 targets.  In week 5, Johnson rolled up another six receptions demonstrating that he is one of the best route running and pass catching running backs in the NFL.  The Browns clearly intend to feed him this season. In week 6 against Denver, the Browns will need Duke Johnson’s pass catching prowess more than ever.  While Denver only allows 19.6 (No. 15) non-PPR fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, the team is allowing 28.2 (No. 8) PPR fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.  How is this possible? Denver’s stout defensive front allows only 3.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs.  The Broncos’ sublime secondary is allowing 6.1 yards per attempt and only three touchdowns while forcing seven interceptions.  Opponents cannot throw run inside or throw to wide receivers.  Denver’s league-best defense squeezes its opponents who are forced to throw running back screens and check downs in order to matriculate the ball downfield.  Marcel Reece and Roy Helu combined for 10 catches for 61-yards and a touchdown.  The Browns will likely lean on Duke Johnson this week.  A low ownership and inexpensive price tag makes Johnson the perfect running back GPP play in week 6. 

 

The New No. 1 Kamar Aiken, $4,300.00 Projected PPR Points: 15.30 Steve Smith is suffering with four micro-fractures in his back, and his ability to play will depend on pain tolerance.  Whether the 36-year old with the broken back is active or not in week 6, Kamar Aiken will operate as Baltimore’s defacto No. 1 wide receiver.  Fortunately, he is not a decrepit shell like Steve Smith or an athletic void like Marlon Brown.  At 6-2, 215-pounds, Aiken owns a 106.3 (83rd-percentile) Height-adjusted Speed Score and a 126.1 (74th-percentile) Burst Score on PlayerProfiler.com. Kamar Aiken is a playmaker priced like he is just a guy.  Since Steve Smith was injured in week 4, Aiken has posted 77 and 78 receiving yards, including a touchdown, while averaging 8 targets per game.   Kamar Aiken‘s recent production spike should continue against San Francisco in week 6.  The 49ers are allowing 41.7 (No. 5) fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and just allowed 121 yards and a touchdown to Odell Beckham in week 5.

 

The Ascending Star Tyler Eifert $4,900.00 Projected PPR Points: 15.26 Tyler Eifert’s 17.0 fantasy points per game is second in the NFL behind only the mythical Rob Gronkowski. Fitting that Eifert, a player with an athletic profile and playing style similar to Jimmy Graham, would assume Graham’s place in the pantheon of elite fantasy tight ends. Tyler Eifert was the best college tight end prospect to enter the NFL since Kellen Winslow Jr.  From his 26.9-percent (82nd-percentile) College Dominator Rating to his 10.22 (87th-percentile) Catch Radius, Eifert’s college production and athlete testing supported the Bengals’ decision to select Eifert with the 21st overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Now in his third season, Tyler Eifert is realizing his potential posting top-10 efficiency metrics across the board from Production Premium to Yards Per Target to Contested Catch Conversion Rate.   This week, Eifert faces a Buffalo Bills team that allows 13.7 (No. 8) fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.  In week 5, Eifert shredded Kam Chancellor and the Seahawks rolling up 8 catches for 90 yards and two game breaking touchdowns.  Buffalo has no answer for the match-up nightmare that is Tyler Eifert, and priced under $5,000on DraftKings, Eifert is the bargain of the week.  

 

May the game flow be ever in your favor.

Photo Credit: Navin75/Flickr

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