Vanilla Flavored Chalk(Obvious Plays)
($8,500)Le’Veon Bell @ SD – Over/Under: 45 Spread: 21 Team Total: 3
High floor and ceiling every week. In his first 2 games back he has 55 touches over his 2 games back with 282 all-purpose yards with 2 touchdowns. San Diego has the 4th worst rush D 126.75. With Michael Vick at the Helm, the Steelers have shown pause with pushing the ball downfield. Bell totaled 29 touches last week vs the Ravens, and I think that is his touch floor for this week. I could see him having 35+. As I tweeted Le’Veon Bell paints Van Goghs with his feet. I mean it.
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($7,200)Keenan Allen vs PIT – Over/Under: 46 Team Total: 24.75 Spread:-3.5
I don’t think Antonio Gates being back will affect Allens’ targets too much. Gates will get most of the looks Ladarius Green was getting, but he is aging and may not necessarily be an every snap player going forward.
Keenan Allen is connecting well with Philip Rivers and Allen is being a playmaker, converting on a long diving touchdown bomb from Philip Rivers in week 4. Allen has 46 targets through 4 games.
($5,800)Justin Forsett vs CLE – Over/Under: 43.5 Team Total: 25 Spread: -6.5
Coming off 150 yard performance, Forsett is facing the 2nd worst rush defense in the league, giving up 141.5 yards on the ground on average per game. Steve Smith has been ruled out with a number of fractured ribs and the wide receiver core was already inept as they come. Look for Forsett to be the offensive vein of the Ravens offense. He has seen a ton of touches averaging
He has received 18, 19, 14, and 27 rush attempts with target totals of 7, 4, 7, from weeks 1-4 in order. Forsett is in for a whopper with cheese. 30 burger with all the condiments. I’m calling it.
($9,200)Julio Jones vs WSH–Over/Under: 47.5 Team Total: 26 Spread: -8.5
Julio was underwhelming last week with only 4 receptions for 38 yards. The run game was effective, with Devonta Freeman tallying 3 touch downs 2 weeks in a row. We are used to the Falcons needing to target Julio Jones heavily on every drive due to the ineptitude of the run game over the past years and a general lack of play makers outside of number 11. He has 52 targets through 4 games 2nd most in the league. Sure to have lower ownership this week after many were burned, fire him up with confidence in all formats.
($7,800)Jamaal Charles vs CHI – Over/Under: 45.5 Team Total: 27.5 Spread: -9.5
“LeBron James” faces the 9th worst rush defense yielding 119.25 yards per game. He is an every week difference maker and cash game staple. Your only fear here is they whup up on the bears quickly and Charles gets a rest.
($7,500)Rob Gronkowski vs DAL – Over/Under: 49 Team Total: 28.5 Spread: -8
After Greg Olsen‘s less than sub par fantasy performance, we are all excited for Gronk to be back. Dallas has been stout vs tight end, being bottom 5 in points allowed to the position, but this is no ordinary tight end. He is a cash game staple week to week and this week is the same as any other.
Confident Calls
($6,100)Mike Evans vs JAX – Over/Under: 42.5 Team Total: 22.7 Spread: -3
Coming off of an unimpressive inefficient game he caught 3-of-8 targets for 32 yards. The Jaguars are the 8th worst pass defense 278.5 yards per game. They have also showed to be fairly stout vs the run meaning the Bucs will be forced to pass the ball a ton. The upside on Evans almost $6K price tag at DraftKings is insane.
He has 25 targets in 2 active games. He should be having bigger scores than this, but Jameis Winston has not been playing at an optimum level for wide receiver production.
($7,400)Emmanuel Sanders vs OAK – Over/Under: 43 Team Total: 24.25 Spread: -5.5
I prefer Sanders price compared to Demaryius($8600/$8100), as they offer the same upside in this plus match up. He has 41 targets through 4 games, creating a high floor and ceiling. The Raiders host the 2nd worst pass defense in the league at a 310.5 yard clip per game.
($5,700)Karlos Williams @ TEN – Over/Under: 42.5 Team Total: 22.75 Spread: -3
The match up is far better this week than last. He is going through the concussion protocol so check prior to lineup lock to see if he has been cleared. If he has bottom 15 rush defense.
Indiana Jones(GPP only)
($6,000)Jeremy Maclin vs CHI – Over/Under: 45.5 Team Total: 27.5 Spread:-9.5
Coming off of two strong performances of 11 rec 148 yards week 4 and 8 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown the week prior after slow start. Now he faces Chicago. BUM BUM BUMMMM.
($5,500)Allen Robinson @ TB –Over/Under: 42.5 Team Total: 19.75 Spread: 3
Robinson is the number 1 target of Blake Bortles, who is often in comeback mode, as the spread suggests will happen once again. His wide receiver counterpart Allen Hurns blew up last week, but don’t be confused, Robinson is the alpha dog. He leads the team in targets at 39 over 4 games. Look for athletic freak Robinson to bust some big gains on contested catches vs the hapless Bucs defense.
($6,000)Sam Bradford vs NO – Over/Under: 48.5 Team Total: 26.5 Spread: -4.5
Bradford’s play has been up and down after looking promising week one. This is going to be the boom. NO is a bottom half pass defense that has yet to be fully exposed. Look for Chip Kelly’s spread system to tear apart the Saints secondary. They have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks at an average of 22.1.
($6,000)Jordan Matthews vs NO – Over/Under: 48.5 Team Total: 26.5 Spread: -4.5
I’ve touched the stove many a time, and I will continue to do so like I forgot the 3rd degree burns. The Eagles offense is finally beginning to take shape. He has seen 38 targets through 4 weeks. This is the week.
($4,800)Dion Lewis @DAL – Over/Under: 49 Team Total: 28.5 Spread: -8
This is the highest total of the week and New England is favored by 8 which would suggest a LeGarrette Blount game, but I am going to zag.The Dallas rush defense is for real. They have held opposing offenses to 91.75 yards per game on the ground at 8th best in the league. Dion Lewis is going to get a ton of dump offs and screens. Tom Brady will get him in space to get him past the line so he can make hay where receivers have accumulated 256 yards per game, a bottom 15 measure in the league. This sets up perfectly for a Dion Lewis game.
($7,200)DeAndre Hopkins vs IND – Over/Under: OFF Team Total: OFF Spread: OFF
Hopkins is the target leader through a quarter of the season at 60 looks. He is seeing too much volume to not be in your player pool every week. Even if Vontae Davis shadows DeAndre Hopkins he will shake free plenty. Indianapolis has the 10th worst pass defense, yielding 268 yards per game through the air.
($6,700)Eddie Lacy vs STL – Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 28 Spread: -9.5
The beast of a workhorse back on the best offense vs the 7th worst rush defense at 120.25 yards per game. Lacy has had a slow start to the season and this sets him up for a low ownership explosion. The DraftKings price is insane.
($4,300)Todd Gurley @ GB – Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 18.5 Spread: 9.5
“God Gurley” has already taken over the Rams back field from Tre Mason. That was a tester nick name, back to the drawing board. He will be highly owned this week due to the mass excitement. He had 146 yards on 19 carries at a 7.7 yard per carry rate last week breaking chunk plays left and right vs Arizona, a good run stopping unit.
($3,600)Denver Defense @OAK –Over/Under: 43 Team Total: 24.25 Spread: -5.5
Derek Carr and the Raiders are already having nightmares about Von Miller and the Denver pass rush. It’s not going to be pretty, unless you have Denver defense in your lineup, then it will be more beautiful than the rising sun over cascading mountains and lakes.
Lines as of 10.6.15
Featured Image Credit: By Andrew Campbell (Flickr) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
