I have yet to have a big win this season. I had a better week than last, but alas, broke even. That seems fairly strange due to almost all of my picks producing voluminously. Sometimes even if you find the plays it is hard to put together the winning combination, and it seems I did not cover that coveted ground in my GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) differentiation this week. I feel good about this week and am excited like a school boy for that first sweat.
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It seems we have another week of low lines with the 49ers Packers tilt being the highest at 48.5. Take the over. What do you know, Aaron Rodgers‘ offense is in the highest over/under game this week. I wonder if that will happen again this season. The highest team total is the Indianapolis Colts at 29, suggesting an Andrew Luck explosion, but I won’t be dancing down that avenue this week, even against the hapless Jaguars. Well enough talking, let’s get money!
Vanilla Flavored Chalk(Obvious Plays)
($8,200/$7,400)Randall Cobb@ SF – Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 29.75 Spread: -9.5
Boom. Boom! BOOM! We watched Cobb dash and dive to a 3 touch down effort in Monday’s tilt vs KC. This was against a decent pass defense. The 49ers defense is not a semblance of that notion, having given up the 6th most pass yards per game at 284.3. Attack the 49ers secondary at will going forward. Cobb has had only 28 targets through 3 games(not bad), but his targets are so efficient with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball and he was dinged up week 1.
($9,400/$9,300)Julio Jones vs HOU – Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 26.5 Spread: -6.5
This guy has the flame that the Pacific Ocean couldn’t extinguish. He’s about to drop his first hit album ‘7 Fire Emojis'(s/o to Noah). He has amassed a gluttonous 34 receptions for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is on pace for 453.3 fantasy points, 30.8% more than the 313.6 of the fantasy WR 1 of last year, Antonio Brown. You can’t afford to not have him in all your lineups.
($8,400/$6,900)Matt Ryan vs HOU – Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 26.5 Spread: 6.5
This goes along with all the Julio Jones notions. The receiver producing at a legendary ground breaking level suggests the deliverer will be producing in a similar facsimile. Julio-Ryan stack is in play once again. Houston has a decent run stopping unit, but can’t cover in the secondary. Ryan will be slinging the ball all over.
($7,900/$7,300)DeAndre Hopkins @ ATL – Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 20 Spread: 6.5
The spread suggests Houston will be playing from behind, leading to increased passing game opportunity for Hopkins. His week 1 – 3 targets are 13, 11, and 14. He is averaging 12 looks a game and is a game breaking player that can score with the ball in his hands from anywhere on the field. Ryan Mallet has a cannon and he isn’t afraid to use it. Hopkins is sure to corral a large percentage of his looks vs the bottom 10 pass defense of the Falcons and cannon ball into the end zone. At sub 8K he is certainly under priced.
($6,300/$5,400)Greg Olsen @ TB – Over/Under: 40 Team Total: 21.5 Spread: -3
The offensive centerpiece of a team is rarely the tight end. Greg Olsen is that. He is one of the few tight ends with a high target floor in the league having received 3, 14, and 12 targets so far this season. With Kelvin Benjamin (ACL) out for the season they are making a concerted effort to manufacture looks for Olsen. He blew up last week for 8 receptions 134 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Confident Calls
($9,100/$9,100)Odell Beckham Jr. @ BUF – Over/Under: 47 Team Total: Spread: 6
Wu tannng! Oh we’ve decided it’s OBJ not ODB, that’s right. I liked thinking of the late New York rapper when talking Giant’s wide outs, but it’s ok. The spread suggests they will be playing from behind. Boom targets for the Giants offensive mail vain. He has a touchdown in each of his last 2 games and is averaging 89.7 reception yards per game with 8-12-9 targets and deserves a look every week.
($7,800/$7,000)Eli Manning @ BUF – Over/Under: 47 Team Total: 20.5 Spread: 6
When I say OBJ you say Eli. OBJ! Eli! Yes, as I have mentioned before, wide receivers set to go off need a vessel for the ball to travel from god into your fantasy scores. That joy carrying ship is Eli Manning. Buffalo is a perceived difficult match up but has been torched for 326.7 yards per game so far, 2nd worst in the league. I see this trend continuing. The pass rush may be there but I’m not worried, especially in Ben Mcadoo’s quick hitting offense.
($8,400/$7,600)A.J. Green vs KC – Over/Under: Team Total: 23.75 Spread:-3.5
Can you say career game? Green tallied an otherworldly 10 receptions for 227 yards and 2 touchdowns to finish as the WR1 on the week. He may not accrue those insane statistics this week, but I certainly like him for 100 yards and a touchdown vs the team that was torched for 333 yards through the air by Aaron Rodgers for the whole world to see on Monday night.
($7,400/$5,500) Joseph Randle @ NO – Over/Under: 46.5 Team Total: 21.25 Spread: -4
I have vehemently denied the coming of Randle as a high production fantasy asset. I still don’t think he is good but with <strong>Brandon Weede</strong>n manning the helm, they have shown they will run the ball. Randle faces the 7th worst rush defense of the saints giving up 126 rushing yards on average per game after a 3 touchdown performance. They raised his price 900$ but he is still worth it
($5,600/$4,500)Jordan Reed vs PHI – Over/Under: 47.5 Team Total: 22.25 Spread:3
He is Kirk Cousins go to guy all over the field. He’s running a ton of different routes from all over and succeeding on all levels of the secondary. Reed should be viewed as a top 6 tight end going forward. His targets through 3 weeks are 11-6-9.
($9,200/$7,900)Aaron Rodgers @SF – Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 29.75 Spread: -9.5
I’m sure a lot of folks were wishing they had Rodgers in their lineups after just a quarter on Monday night football with the packers QB having already put up 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. He finished with 5 touchdowns like it was a stroll through the park, and he says himself the offense is just warming up. I think he may be right.
($7300/$6,200)Steve Smith @ PIT – Over/Under: 44 Team Total: 23.5 Spread: -3
This fantasy stud is having a rebirth encore, producing even more fruitfully than last seasons incredible start. He has 39 targets through 3 games and I don’t expect the Pittsburgh secondary to thwart his power stride. In fact, I expect them to boost it, with the secondary being the dumpster inferno it is.
(7,600/$5,800)Tyrod Taylor Over/Under: 47 Team Total: 26.5 Spread: -6
He has finished as the QB19, QB2, and QB4 through 3 weeks. Those games were vs the Colts, Patriots and Miami, which are all bottom half pass defenses, but with the amount of quality pieces surrounding him in Buffalo and his rushing floor, I think he can produce in almost any match up. He had 17.9 FanDuel points when he was QB19, which is certainly a decent total whose view is skewed due to many quarterback fantasy explosions week 1. He is a rock solid QB1 high upside play this week vs the leagues worst passing defense of the Giants.
Indiana Jones Plays
($7,500/$6,300)Latavius Murray@ CHI – Over/Under: 44 Team Total: 23.5 Spread: -3
A Raiders offensive piece will always be an Indiana Jones play, even SPARQ legend Latavius Murray. The Raider’s clearly read my letter to them and decided to give Murray the job. He is finally a thing, which I stated in my Week 3 Quickhit Takeaways. He had his coming out party in a big way vs last year’s worst rush defense to the tune of 149 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries, at a 5.3 yard per carry clip, and one reception. That was the warm up lap, get ready for the marathon to ensure. The Raider’s are favored on the road, which feels extremely odd, even vs the woeful Bears. However, the spread does suggest an Oakland lead and that would equate to more carries for Murray. Chicago is allowing a ton of rush yards averaging 135.7 a game, 6th worst in the league. There’s a new Murray in town.
($7,600/$6,600)Alshon Jeffery @ CHI – Over/Under: 44 Team Total: 20.5 Spread:3
Alshon is coming off of injury, facing a terrible defense, giving up the 3rd most reception yards per game at a whopping 323 clip. Can Clausen Jimmy his way out of this pickle? I can help, feed your 6’3″ wide receiver.
($6,000/$5,300)James Jones @ SF – Over/Under: 48 Team Total: 29.75 Spread: -9.5
The 49er defense is bad, especially through the air being the 5th worst in the league per game at a 284.3 clip. His role is pretty secure seeing 4-3-8 targets through 3 weeks. 4 and 3 looks? What do you mean secure role? Even if he isn’t the most high volume receiver, the looks he is getting are so efficient with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, and also because of the two’s rapport, especially due many of them occurring in the red zone. Jones had 2 touchdowns week 3 and had a touchdown and another called back in the second game on those low targets. He seems to have passed up Davante Adams in the pecking order currently, and the ankle injury Adams is suffering is not helping his cause. I expect James Jones‘ targets to be in the 5-10 range week to week going forward, and he is a great bet for hitting pay dirt this week. He is on pace for double digit touchdowns.
($8,300/$7,100)Matt Forte vs OAK – Over/Under: 44 Team Total: 20.5 Spread: 3
Forte is the offense of the Bears. He amassed only 74 yards last week on the ground, not catching any of his measly 3 targets. Jay Cutler‘s looking like the hottest girl in the bar now. People may be off Forte due to Clausen likely to start and the overall ineptitude of the team, which is good reason. Look for him to bounce back vs the Raiders, a surprising top half rushing defense.
($6,300/$3,400)Karlos Williams – Over/Under: 47 Team Total: 26.5 Spread: -6
Reports are LeSean McCoy will be given some rest this week due to his ailing hamstring. Karlos Williams has been producing standalone value as a backup and now faces the yet to be revealed NYG rush defense who has been performing above their pedigree to start the season. I like them to fall back to earth this week.
Featured Image Credit: By Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
