Daily Fantasy Football: NFL Week 3 Contest Winning Plays

NFL picks against the spread

How did you do last week in daily fantasy football? Talk to me: @3rdowndotcom I didn’t do very well. I lost a small bit of money which is always disappointing. But after a good week one I am not licking my wounds just yet. My picks from the week prior turned out average, but I hit on less players than I would like — although only a few were complete busts. Merrily we roll along to this next week.

This week has a lot of low over/unders with the highest being Chiefs vs Packers at 48 points. This is a far cry from the high 55 point totals we have seen over the past two weeks, but we will still navigate to where the fantasy goodness lies.

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Vanilla Flavored Chalk

($7,500)Le’Veon Bell @ STL – Team Total: 24.3 Spread: -1

It’s his first available week and I’m diving in head first with Bell in my lineups. This game is tricky, as the Rams defense is known to be an unbreakable fortress that could stop the juggernaut at a sprint. Matt Jones just gashed them 123 yards 2 TDs on 19 carries, for giving up a total of 182 rushing yards to Redskin backs . It is the second highest over/under of the week in a week of low totals. If Bell has a resemblance of the success the Redskins had, he is in for an enormous game. Even if the Rams front tightens back up and stops the run, Bell will catch a ton of balls. The spread is -1, favoring the Steelers, suggesting Pittsburgh won’t be able to take their foot off the pedal.

($8,900)Antonio Brown @ STL – Team Total: 24.3 Spread: -1

Clearly the Steelers have been running a lot of 1 wide receiver sets because I only see one guy out there catching balls, and he is BALLIN. Lock Antonio Brown in your lineups this week in this perceived tough match up. I think the Steelers will throw the ball a ton in this one, and you don’t have to guess who it’s going to.

($7,400)Marshawn Lynch vs CHI – Team Total: 29.0 Spread: -14.5

The spread suggests Seattle will be in the lead a significant amount of time, which should lead to Lynch clock killing carries. Chicago is abysmal vs the run being beaten down consistently giving up 115 yards to the decrepit AZ run attack last game and 133 to the Packers rushers the week before. Shake off the slow 2 game start, Marshawn is necessary in a high percentage of your lineups this week.

($3,400)Seattle Defense vs CHI – Over/Under: Spread:

This is the chalk play of the week at Defense. Don’t get cute. Clausen is a known interception thrower and the Seattle defensive front should apply pressure enough for some sacks and turnovers.

Confident Calls

($6,200)Brandon Marshall vs PHI – Team Total: 25.0 Spread: -2.5

The week has finally come to play Marshall. In a game they are projected to trail he will see voluminous targets. Eric Decker is currently questionable for the tilt with a knee injury which would also help that theory. In addition, those targets will be against the 8th worse pass defense through 2 games. Marshall produced handily vs the Colts converting 7 of 10 opportunities for 101 yards and a touchdown. Philadelphia has been a bottom half defense vs wide receivers the first 2 weeks.

($9,000)Odell Beckham Jr. vs WSH – Team Total: 24.0 Spread: -4

Boom! Beckham’s bounce back has taken place to the tune of 146 yards and a touchdown. He now faces the horrid Redskins’ secondary that has yet to be truly exposed this season. The WSH front is performing exceedingly well and I believe is what has been hiding the back end. Look for OBJ to capitalize in a match up that seems to set up for Eli Manning chucking the ball 50 times.

($7,100)Matt Ryan @ DAL – Team Total: 22.8 Spread: -1

Matty Ice has never been known as a clutch, but the man had got it done in comeback mode 2 weeks in a row. The Dallas defense has been acceptable, but the secondary will really be blown open by Ryan and Julio Jones. I feel this team total is a bit low.

($9,000)Julio Jones @ DAL – Team Total: 22.8 Spread: -1

A common found package, Julio with Matt Ryan, and a stack is in play. Every week you see Matt Ryan on here you can bet Julio Jones will be somewhere near. Julio is the clear focus of the offense. He had 15 targets last week and 11 the week before. High floor, high ceiling.

($7,400)DeAndre Hopkins vs TB – Team Total: 23.5 Spread: -6.5

The target hog Hopkins travels to sunny Florida, where cornerbacks and safeties do not reside. The spread suggests they will be playing from behind leading to many passes. Hopkins has had 11 and 13 targets the past 2 weeks. Volume meets talent meets plus match up. We have the trifecta. Certain to be on winning lineups this week.

($4,400)Danny Woodhead @ MIN – Team Total: 21.3 Spread: 2.5

Carlos Hyde gashed Minnesota and what would usually be a negative game script for most running backs helps Woodhead, so he’ll be fine either way the spread falls. He followed up his 20.2 week 1 performance with 13.4 points. Woodhead has a high floor and ceiling each week due to his role, especially in the redzone, and his ability to produce in tough matchups.

($7,900) Andrew Luck vs TEN – Team Total: 24.3 Spread: -3.5

I usually try to find a sub $8000 qb in my lineups, but this is the first week Andrew Luck enters the realm of my DFS player pool. Look for him to bounce back in a big way after Monday night’s disappointments vs the Jets in this cake match up. T.Y. Hilton and Luck stack in play pending no hamstring setbacks for Hilton.

($6,700)T.Y. Hilton @ TEN – Team Total: 24.3 Spread: -3.5

Should I have moved this pick later in the article to mix it up? A stack usually means both those 2 players are set to go off so here we are. You saw Johnny Football toss 2 bombs to Travis Benjamin vs the Titans last weekend. Replace those players at their respective positions with Luck and Hilton. Are you seeing what I’m seeing? BOOM!

($7,400) Jamaal Charles @ GB – Team Total: 20.5 Spread: 7

Charles is a cash game staple in even less than decent match ups. When a player is their respective teams vessel through which the chains move every week, they present an uncommon high floor and astronomical ceiling. Shake off the 2 fumble, albeit still good fantasy football finish, and throw him in lineups confidently. Green Bay is the 3rd worst team in the league vs the run through 2 weeks of the season.

($4,900) Jonathan Stewart vs NO – Team Total: 24.0 Spread: -3

Thus far Stewart has disappointed. There is no question about that. This will be the week vs the defense that coughed up a 5.8 yard per carry rate week one to the frail Andre Ellington. Stewart is a bruiser. Look for him to bounce back after his slow start to the season. He has had 18 22 and touches this season, so the workload is there.

Indiana Jones Plays

($3,200) Vernon Davis @ AZ – Team Total: 18.5 Spread: 6.5

This is a GPP only play due to the volatility of Davis’ week to week role. Vernon does seem to finally be a part of the 49ers game plan once again, drawing 7 targets Sunday, catching 5 for 62 yards. Arizona allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to tight ends last season, although through 2 weeks in 2015 they have been the 13th best vs the position. I believe this is simply due to the ineptitude of the first 2 dumpster fire teams they faced, the New Orleans Saints and the Chicago Bears.

($6,800) Keenan Allen @ MIN – Team Total: 21.3 Spread: 2.5

This is a well that will be hard to return to after poisoning all it’s drinkers, but that is what makes it an Indiana Jones play. We saw Allen have 2 catches vs the Bengals after a 15 reception performance, but he simply had a bad game fumbling early and committing a bad drop. I think he will land somewhere in the prime meridian of those 2 fantasy north and south poles.

($3,800) Jordan Reed @ NYG – Team Total: 20.0 Spread: 4.0

There will be no DeSean Jackson once again this week, leaving Reed as the best pass catching option for the Redskins. Don’t be tempted to play Garcon(6/7 23 yards, TD last week), Reed is the best fantasy option. He caught 6 of 6 targets last week for 82 yards. He is a great bet for a touchdown.

($3,000) James Starks vs KC – Team Total: 27.5 Spread: -7

Injury Special here. Eddie Lacy is expected to miss this week’s Monday night showdown vs the Chiefs. That makes Starks an excellent play functioning as an every down back with Aaron Rodgers running the offense. He is not a recommended play for Thursday start contests due to Lacy’s possibility of starting. Make sure to check Lacy’s status prior to lineup lock, and it may be better to play him on sites that have late swap due to this match up occurring on Monday.

Lines as of 9.22.15

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Featured Image Credit: By Mr.schultz (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons

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Matt Dulcan