There are 10 games on tonight’s slate, and all but one of them has an over/under of 7.5 or higher. That means we should be expecting a high scoring night. Let’s take a look at some matchups to target:
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Pitchers
1. Zack Greinke: Sports a sparkling 5-0 record to go along with a dominant 1.56 ERA. Tonight’s game is in LA, which has always been a run suppressing ball park (this is expected to be the lowest scoring game tonight). Greinke is also the best bet for a W on tonight’s slate considering Vegas has him pegged as a 2:1 favorite.
2. Gerrit Cole: Cole is on the road in a hitter friendly environment, but I’ll take him ahead of Scherzer tonight because the matchup is still too good. Cole has been exceptional this season (4-1, 2.27), and he’s a big betting favorite against the Phillies pathetic offense.
3. Ubaldo Jimenez: Jimenez has been lights out in Camden Yards this season where he is 2-0 over 14 scoreless innings (14 K’s). One of those starts was against the Blue Jays. Jimenez has also fared well against the Blue Jay’s hitters (Bautista: 2/29; Donaldson: 1/12). He wasn’t great in his last start, but If you’re looking for a less expensive gamble tonight, Ubaldo is your guy.
Catchers
1. Yasmani Grandal: The man is seeing beach balls at the dish right now. He’s 13 for his last 19 with 3 HR’s. He’s also 2/2 vs. Tom Koehler in his career.
2. Salvador Perez: 2/6 with a HR vs. Colby Lewis. The ballpark in Arlington has always been a hitters haven.
3. Tucker Barnhart: He’s batting 8th tonight, and has one HR in 3 career AB’s vs. Miller. Follow the weather reports closely if you plan to target this game.
First Basemen
1. Eric Hosmer: “Hoss” has been raking to start the season (.320-5-25). Tonight he gets a favorable matchup against Colby Lewis who he’s 4/10 against lifetime.
2. Joey Votto: 3 XBH’s in 12 AB’s vs. Miller. As noted above, watch the weather if you’re taking Reds or Braves tonight.
Second Basemen
1. Dustin Pedroia: 1.438 OPS vs. Kazmir over 39 AB’s. That’s what you call ownership.
2. Logan Forsythe: 4/9 with a HR vs. Sabathia makes him a fantastic value play tonight.
Third Basemen
1. Evan Longoria: 1.390 OPS with 6 HR’s vs. Sabathia over 58 AB’s! If Pedroia owns Kazmir, what is this? Longo is swinging the bat well over his last 5 games as well.
2. Mike Moustakas: He’s using the whole field this year, and has seen his batting average explode as a result. 4/7 with a HR vs. Lewis makes him another strong play in the Royal’s lineup tonight….stacking Royals wouldn’t be a bad way to go tonight.
Shortstops
1. JJ Hardy: Just coming back from injury, but homered last night. Great value play at home in a game that is expected to be high scoring (O/U set at 8.5).
2. Ian Desmond: starting to come around with the bat as Bryce Harper takes all the pressure off. 2/6 with a HR vs. Collmenter.
Outfielders
1. Ryan Braun: Really starting to juice up…I mean heat up with 7 hits in his last 16 AB’s. 9/18 vs. Samardzija with 3 HR’s.
2. Andrew McCutchen: Only hitting .223 on the season but starting to show signs of life with 8 hits in his last 20 AB’s. He’s 3/6 with 2 HR’s vs. Williams.
3. Gerardo Parra: Known mostly for his glove, his bat’s not too shabby either. 4 for his last 10 with a HR and 6 RBI’s. 4/11 with a HR vs. Samardzija.
Players to avoid
1. Jeff Samardzija: 0-3 with a 6.09 ERA in Miller Park…stack the Brew Crew?
2. Jose Bautista: He’s dealing with a shoulder injury, and is just 2/29 vs. Jimenez.
3. Freddie Freeman: Just 1/15 vs. Mike Leake (that one hit was a HR though).
4. Jacob deGrom and Jon Lester: The wind is howling out to right field in Wrigley.
