XN Sports will present values and picks for DraftKings each and every week throughout the season for all your daily fantasy needs. Check out all the contests at DraftKings here, and be sure to enter the Week 17 freerolls right away.
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The details of this week’s contest:
Contest Details
-DraftKings $100K Play-Action
-Turn $2 into $10,000
-$100,000 in Total Prizes
-$10,000 First Place prize
-Just $2 to enter
Without further ado, your value plays and lineups for Week 16.
Value Plays
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings ($5,900)- If there were any doubts regarding who is the best quarterback in this draft class, Teddy silenced them. It still bothers me that people scrutinized his pro day so much, but that’s for another day. Bridgewater has played very well as of late, throwing multiple touchdown passes in four of his last five contests. And during that span, he’s averaging nearly 19 fantasy points per game, a very respectable number for a lower-tier signal caller. Combined his strong play with a dream matchup against the Bears, and he’ll be in some of my lineups this week, for sure.
No team in football has allowed more passing touchdowns this year than the Chicago Bears, who have done so a whopping 33 times. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 2.2 passing scores per game against Chicago, also the most in the league. Oh, and they are also averaging 20.36 fantasy points per game against the Bears, which is second-worst in football. Since Week 12, Teddy is quietly 11th among passers in fantasy points per game, and I think he keeps it going this week. Also, keep in mind that he’s been a top-12 quarterback each of the last two weeks, despite facing two top-eight pass defenses, according to numberFire metrics. Stack him with a guy like Charles Johnson in a GPP and spend up elsewhere.
Running Back
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,300)- Look. I really am not a fan of Doug Martin. Like, at all. However, despite the talk of Charles Sims‘ emergence, Martin has still served as the lead back in Tampa Bay. According to Bryan Fontaine, Martin has seen 69 percent of Tampa’s running back carries over the last two weeks, a relatively healthy number. Again, I’m not crazy about Martin, but the combination of the matchup with the Saints and that price is very, very intriguing. He’s cheaper than guys like DeAnthony Thomas and Khiry Robinson, for goodness sake.
Meanwhile, the Saints stink, allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing rushers since Week 12, and the fourth-most all year long. A healthy 36 percent of total touchdowns allowed by New Orleans this year have come on the ground, good for the seventh-highest percentage in football. Backs are also averaging 4.8 yards per carry, the second-highest yards per clip in the league this year. A running back has found the end zone in four of the last five games against the Saints, and while Martin won’t salvage his fantasy season, he could win you some money this week.
Wide Receiver
Albert Wilson, Kansas City Chiefs ($3,800)- Wilson has quietly emerged as the Chiefs’ number one wideout over the last two weeks, catching 8-of-12 targets for 156 yards during that span. The undrafted wideout certainly has talent, and I like his matchup this week. Bryan Fontaine does an awesome job in his advanced matchups column, and he points out that he’ll square off against the likes of Shareece Wright, who is currently ranked as the third-worst coverage corner in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. With Chase Daniel under center, I think Wilson will get a few more shots down the field against a San Diego secondary that ranks 24th in the league according to Football Outsiders DVOA.
I think San Diego shuts down Travis Kelce, as they’ve been tough against tight ends all year long, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game, as well as two total scores to the position all year. Having said that, I like Wilson to make some big plays with Daniel under center, and the two have played together in the preseason and in practice more than people realize. And at $3,800, it’s a nice combination of upside and salary relief.
Tight End
Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders ($3,300)- The last time I wrote up Rivera, he was facing this Denver defense that was better and healthier a few weeks back. He proceeded to catch six balls for 64 yards and a score. And despite only seeing four targets last week against Buffalo, he’s still the clear-cut number one option in the Raiders’ passing game, just seven targets shy of 100 on the season. In this game against Denver, Oakland should be trailing, forcing them to play some huck-chuck football early, giving Rivera a nice uptick in volume. I love him in this spot, as Denver’s linebackers are really banged up, and they’ve also struggled against tight ends all year long, surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. Tight ends are also averaging 6.4 catches on 8.5 targets per game against the Broncos this year, and I like Rivera to exploit this matchup against some vulnerable Denver linebackers.
Lineup 1
QB- Teddy Bridgewater ($3,800)
RB- Le’Veon Bell ($9,500)
RB- Arian Foster ($7,900)
WR- A.J. Green ($8,300)
WR- Greg Jennings ($4,300)
WR- Albert Wilson ($3,800)
TE- Mychal Rivera ($3,300)
FLEX- Devonta Freeman ($3,600)
D/ST- 49ers ($3,200)
Lineup 2
QB- Cam Newton ($7,500)
RB- Dan Herron ($4,200)
RB- Matt Forte ($8,500)
WR- Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,600)
WR- Kelvin Benjamin ($6,200)
WR- Albert Wilson ($3,800)
TE- Mychal Rivera ($3,300)
FLEX- Devonta Freeman ($3,600)
D/ST- Dolphins ($3,100)
