Caution. Danger ahead.
Prior to the Week 13 slate of games, the trend had been creeping towards underdogs after an explosion of favorites in Week 10. Two straight weeks of underdogs getting the edge had set up a nice rebound by favorites in Week 13. It never came to fruition.
We entered this week with the expectation that our previous assumption still held true — namely, that favorites making a playoff push would dominate the week. With that, we began to consider each matchup as clear-cut and one-sided, sticking to a plan formulated prior to games now one week removed.
But, isn’t that exactly what we constantly preach to avoid?
Nothing is obvious. Nothing is easy. The moment we scoff at the Jaguars or the Jets beating the spread two straight weeks is the moment we fall victim to a trap. Once each game began to reveal itself its true nature upon further inspection, the edge for the week swung convincingly towards the underdogs.
This is exactly what we want.
One website, NFLPickwatch.com, tracks picks against the spread by 40 experts throughout the industry. Entering Week 14, our picks rank second overall, and highest among all experts that pick every single game. But we have reached this point through one mindset — take nothing at face value.
We expected the favorites to take control last week. We expected that, when it didn’t happen in Week 13, Week 14 would pick up the slack. Once we were willing to revise our thought process, we are thrilled to have been proven wrong. Therefore, we will be taking the points in nearly every game.
Be careful, favorites.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team and an asterisk denotes one of the week’s most confident picks.
*Confidence Picks: 7-1 (Season: 47-33)
All Picks Against Spread: 9-7 (Season: 108-83-1)
