It was really something to watch – to see Rick Nash struggle to score during the 2014 NHL Playoffs. Through 25 games, Nash managed just three postseason goals on 83 shots. That led to him being fairly undervalued in fantasy drafts this season, and he had an average draft position on ESPN of 94.6 overall, or behind Jaromir Jagr, Jordan Eberle, and Jonathan Drouin. With hindsight being 20/20, Nash is proving that he was a little disrespected.
The Talent
The first point that needs to be made about Nash is that he is a player who single-handedly creates offense. Much like Ilya Kovalchuk in his heyday, when Nash gets the puck with speed through the neutral zone, it’s a “watch this” moment. He had to in order to score goals: from 2007-2012, Nash’s three most common forward line mates at 5 on 5 were Kristian Huselius, Derick Brassard, and R.J. Umberger. Huselius cracked 30 goals and 70 points once (neither with Columbus), Brassard hasn’t cracked 20 goals or surpassed 30 assists in his career, while Umberger has never gotten to 60 points in a season. Nash wasn’t playing with true first line talents – he made second and third line players into first liners.
So just how good was Rick Nash in Columbus? Well…
From 2003-2012, only four players had at least seven 30-goal seasons: Jarome Iginla, Ilya Kovalchuk, Alex Ovechkin, and Rick Nash.
Setting Nash aside, Iginla and Ovechkin are future Hall of Famers, while Kovalchuk probably would have been if he stayed in the NHL (and he still might be). Nash, despite playing with less-than-elite talent, was about as consistent as some of the most talented players of this past generation.
The Playoffs and Shot Distance
Shooting variance is something that some hockey fans have trouble grasping. Here are a couple of recent playoff performances that were negatively viewed in recent memory, only to see the player rebound immediately next year:
- Tyler Seguin scored one goal in 22 playoff games during the Bruins’ 2013 Stanley Cup run. He was traded in the offseason, and scored 37 goals the following year.
- Jaromir Jagr, in the same playoff as Seguin, scored zero goals in 22 games. Jagr signed with the New Jersey Devils, and scored 24 goals in 82 games for them last year.
- Rick Nash scored three goals in 25 games last playoff season. So far this year, he’s tallied 15 goals in 21 games (at time of writing).
Here are three elite players (well, at least two), and they scored four combined goals in 69 total playoff games (0.06 goals per game). In the following 183 games between these players, they combined for 76 goals (0.42 goals per game).
It should be fairly intuitive that shots closer to the goalie have a higher chance of going in. The goalie has less time to react, and a well-placed shot is pretty much unstoppable from 20 feet. Chris Boyle of Sportsnet looked into this, and found save percentages for goalies with regards to shot distance. Here’s his chart for save percentages at all strengths:
Notice that it’s not just shots from the slot that are dangerous. Even as far out as the face-off dots produce a save percentage of .900 or lower, meaning a player scores on one out of every 10 shots from that range.
From Sporting Charts, here is Rick Nash’s heat maps for the regular season last year on the left, and beside it, the playoffs:
The first thing to notice is the shot distance; the difference between regular season distance and playoff distance was about 0.57 feet. Notice the shooting percentages; Nash’s playoff shooting percentage fell off by a relative measure of about 64-percent. Looking at Boyle’s charts, and then Nash’s percentages, should a half of a foot further in average shot distance equate to a shooting percentage drop off of nearly two-thirds? Probably not.
So here’s the same Nash heat maps, only this time with specific points, and the goaltender “danger zone” imposed on top, showing roughly the area where save percentages are .900 or less:
By rough count, there are 38 shots within that pentagon. Even at a rate of 1 goal every 10 shots, he should have had 3-4 goals alone on those shots in close. And that assumes each shot in that area has a 10-percent chance of going in; looking at Boyle’s save percentage map, the shots closer to the net for Nash would have a 25-percent chance or more of going in. Even an unlucky player should have had five or six goals with those shots. Nash was beyond unlucky, and fantasy owners who drafted him this year are reaping the rewards.
Moving Forward
Obviously, Nash’s age is a concern now. He’ll be 31 years old next season, and history tells us he’s definitely in the decline of his career. For this year, there’s little chance he maintains that 20-percent shooting rate, but even shooting 10-percent the rest of the season could produce 20 more goals at Nash’s current shot rate. I will say that in a keeper league, it might be a good idea to see what Nash would fetch on the trade market right now. If he can be traded for a top-25 player, that trade should be made.
Nash, like Seguin and Jagr before him, should serve as a warning for fantasy hockey players. Avoid the “he doesn’t go to the net” or “he doesn’t look right” narratives from the media. Look at the numbers, and know the track record of the player. More often than not, that will lead fantasy owners in the right direction.
*Some stats and information courtesy of Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Sporting Charts, Sportsnet, ESPN, and Arctic Ice Hockey
