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Fantasy Football Week 11 Worksheet

Rich Hribar

Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer.

Let’s hit the 14 games in Week 11 bullet point style….

Bills @ Dolphins
5 Spread -5
18.5 Team O/U 23.5
63.8 Plays/Gm 65.8
65.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.0
39.9% Rush % 41.9%
60.1% Pass % 58.1%
39.0% Opp. Rush % 38.9%
61.0% Opp. Pass % 61.1%

 

  • Buffalo is last in the league in red zone touchdown percentage at 39 percent (13 of 33 drives).
  • Since taking over as the starter in week 5, Kyle Orton is 7th in the league in completions (124), 10th in passing yards (1,394) and tied for 9th in touchdown passes (10).
  • Fred Jackson has a target on 16.3 percent of his snaps this season, third behind only Reggie Bush (18 percent) and Devonta Freeman (16.7 percent) of all running backs.
  • After allowing just 405 rushing yards over their first six games of the season (67.5 yards per game), Buffalo has allowed 460 rushing yards over their past three (153.3 per game).
  • In five career games facing Buffalo, Ryan Tannehill averages 4.8 yards per attempt with no games over 6.0 Y/A.
  • Jarvis Landry was targeted on 20.8 percent of his snaps last week, the highest percentage by a Miami receiver since week three.
  • Mike Wallace has scored a touchdown in 10 of his past 16 games.

Trust: Mike Wallace

Bust: Ryan Tannehill, Kyle Orton, Lamar Miller

Reasonable Return: Fred Jackson, Sammy Watkins, Jarvis Landry

 

Texans @ Browns
3 Spread -3
19.3 Team O/U 22.3
61.9 Plays/Gm 65.4
68.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.2
50.6% Rush % 50.8%
49.4% Pass % 49.2%
40.9% Opp. Rush % 41.7%
59.1% Opp. Pass % 58.3%

 

  • Cleveland has allowed just six touchdowns on their opponents past 54 drives (11 percent), lowest percentage in the league over the past four weeks.
  • Opposing quarterbacks are completing only 50.9 percent of their passes versus Cleveland over the past four weeks, lowest in the league.
  • The Browns are the only team yet to allow a top 10 scoring quarterback on the season.
  • Cleveland’s 52 rushing attempts last week were the most in a game this season and more than 50 total rush attempts the Chargers have had over their past three games.
  • Brown’s running backs points per rushing attempt: Isaiah Crowell 0.93, Ben Tate 0.56. Terrance West 0.54.
  • Over the past three games, DeAndre Hopkins has been targeted on 26.1 percent of his routes. He was targeted on just 17.9 percent over the first six games.
  • Andre Johnson has scored a touchdown in just five of past 41 games played.
  • Arian Foster‘s 102.8 rushing yards per game would be a career high. He averaged 101.0 yards rushing per game in 2010.
  • Foster’s six 100-yard rushing games are two behind his career high which was also set in 2010.

Trust: DeAndre Hopkins

Bust: Brian Hoyer, Andre Johnson, Ryan Mallett

Reasonable Return: Terrance West, Ben Tate, Andrew Hawkins, Alfred Blue

 

Falcons @ Panthers
1 Spread -1
22.5 Team O/U 23.5
62.7 Plays/Gm 65.0
67.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.0
36.5% Rush % 40.8%
63.5% Pass % 59.2%
46.2% Opp. Rush % 41.9%
53.8% Opp. Pass % 58.1%

 

  • Julio Jones has scored in his only two games at Carolina and Roddy White has scored in each of his past four games versus the Panthers.
  • Jones leads the league with 18 receptions of 20 yards or more.
  • The last Falcon running back to rush for 100 or more yards was Michael Turner in Week 9 of 2012.
  • Matt Ryan holds a 9.7 yards per attempt in the Georgia Dome this season as opposed to a 6.6 Y/A mark away from home this season.
  • Cam Newton has thrown an interception in six consecutive games, the second longest active streak behind Blake Bortles (8).
  • Since his QB1 performance in week 6 versus the Bengals, Newton’s weekly finishes are QB19, QB30, QB21 and QB14.
  • Greg Olsen leads all tight ends with six weeks as a top 6 scorer.
  • Carolina has only five individual 100-yard rushing performances since 2011 and two are by Newton.
  • Kelvin Benjamin‘s seven receiving touchdowns are the most by a rookie through 10 games since Marques Colston on 2006.

Trust: Julio Jones, Roddy White, Greg Olsen

Bust: Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, Johnathan Stewart

Reasonable Return: Matt Ryan, Kelvin Benjamin, Cam Newton

 

Vikings @ Bears
3 Spread -3
21.5 Team O/U 24.5
64.4 Plays/Gm 63.9
61.9 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.4
41.0% Rush % 36.9%
59.0% Pass % 63.1%
43.1% Opp. Rush % 42.9%
56.9% Opp. Pass % 57.1%

 

  • The Bears are one of five teams yet to score 30 points in a game this season. The others are the Jags, Jets, Titans and Raiders.
  • Chicago has allowed 40 or more points six times since the start of last season, the most in the league.
  • Over their past three games, Chicago has begun each possession with an average point differential of -22.4 points.
  • Chicago has allowed 75.5 percent of opposing passes to be completed over their past three games, worst in the league.
  • The Bears have six offensive touchdowns at home this season, tied with San Francisco for the fewest at home this season.
  • After allowing 11 rushers to reach 100 yards on the ground last season, Chicago has yet to allow one this season and the individual season high is 86 yards.
  • Greg Jennings has finished as WR25, WR31 and WR25 over his past three games.
  • The season high for receiving yards by a tight end against the Vikings is only 54 yards by Jimmy Graham in Week 3.
  • The Bears have allowed nine touchdowns to opposing tight ends over their past five games.

Trust: Greg Jennings, Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Forte

Bust: Cordarrelle Patterson, Martellus Bennett, Matt Asiata

Reasonable Return: Jerick McKinnon, Jay Cutler, Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall

 

Bengals @ Saints
8 Spread -8
21.3 Team O/U 29.3
62.3 Plays/Gm 71.0
72.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.0
45.1% Rush % 38.9%
54.9% Pass % 61.1%
43.7% Opp. Rush % 40.7%
56.3% Opp. Pass % 59.3%

 

  • The Bengals average 92.2 fewer yards on the road than at home, second largest negative differential on the road in the league (Falcons).
  • Cincinnati averages 63.3 rushing yards per game on the road this season, second to last in the league (Oakland at 50.6 yards).
  • The Bengals have allowed only one individual back to top 100 rushing yards against them this season, but are allowing 143 yards on the ground per game (second to last) and have allowed a rushing touchdown in every game this season except to Atlanta.
  • After having only one 100-yard rushing game and only one game with 20 or more rushing attempts through the first 40 games of his career, Ingram has three consecutive games reaching both marks.
  • Ingram finished as a top 10 scoring back in five of his six games played this season.
  • Ingram leads all running backs with a touch on 58.1 percent of his snaps.
  • Brandin Cooks‘ PPR scoring weeks at home have been WR23, WR17, WR7 and WR15.
  • Drew Brees has thrown multiple touchdowns in 32 of his past 36 home games.

Trust: Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Jimmy Graham, A.J. Green, Mohamed Sanu

Bust: Marques Colston, Jermaine Gresham

Reasonable Return: Brandin Cooks, Jeremy Hill, Andy Dalton

 

Broncos @ Rams
-10.5 Spread 10.5
30.8 Team O/U 20.3
66.8 Plays/Gm 61.2
67.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.8
38.8% Rush % 40.5%
61.2% Pass % 59.5%
31.1% Opp. Rush % 46.6%
68.9% Opp. Pass % 53.4%

 

  • Opposing defenses have scored six touchdowns facing the Rams this season, most in the league.
  • The Rams have allowed six or more sacks in two of their past three games.
  • Defenses facing St. Louis have finished in the top eight seven of nine games this season.
  • Peyton Manning is the only quarterback to throw multiple touchdowns in every game this season and has thrown two or more touchdowns in 15 straights regular season games.
  • Emmanuel Sanders had six receiving touchdowns all of 2013. He has six over his past four games.
  • Sanders never had a 100-yard receiving game in 59 career games with the Steelers. He has five in nine games as a Bronco.
  • Denver has allowed a tight end to score in four of their past five games with five or more receptions to an individual tight end in four of those games.
  • The Broncos have allowed only one top 12 quarterback since week 3 despite seeing the most pass attempts in the league (264) and most per game (44.0) over that stretch.
  • 121 players have more receiving yards since the start of last season than the 572 yards receiving by Tavon Austin.
  • St. Louis has allowed only one top 12 tight end on the season, tied with New Orleans and Minnesota for the fewest in the league.
  • The Rams haven’t allowed an opposing running back to rush for 70 yards since week 5.
  • Touch percentage of snaps for Rams running backs: Tre Mason 53 percent, Benny Cunningham 19.8 percent.

Trust: Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders

Bust: Tre Mason, C.J. Anderson, Montee Ball, Wes Welker

Reasonable Return: Julius Thomas, Jared Cook

 

Seahawks @ Chiefs
0 Spread 0
21 Team O/U 21
61.9 Plays/Gm 63.0
61.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.8
50.1% Rush % 47.1%
49.9% Pass % 52.9%
40.7% Opp. Rush % 40.2%
59.3% Opp. Pass % 59.8%

 

  • 53.2 percent of the offensive yards gained by Seattle have been passing, lowest percentage in the league.
  • The Chiefs are still the only team yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season, but are allowing 4.7 yards per carry, second to last in the league.
  • Marshawn Lynch already has 12 touchdowns on the season, making him the only player to have double digits over each of the past four seasons.
  • All nine of Lynch’s rushing scores have come at home this season.
  • Seattle has allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends (second most in the league), but have allowed only two top 12 scoring weeks to the position and have allowed only one tight end (Antonio Gates) to reach 40 yards receiving.
  • 40.4 percent of Russell Wilson‘s fantasy output stems from rushing, the highest dependency in the league. 22.2 percent of his points last season were from rushing.
  • Wilson ran on 21.9 percent of his snaps last week, the highest percentage by a quarterback this season.
  • Wilson ranks 22nd in the league in passing points, four spots lower than Alex Smith.
  • Only Teddy Bridgewater (16.6 percent) has had a fewer amount of his fantasy points come from touchdown passes than the 24 percent of Wilson.
  • Jamaal Charles is averaging 3.2 fewer carries and 2.2 receptions per game than he did last season.
  • Charles has scored a touchdown in 10 of his past 13 games played and 19 total touchdowns in those games.

Trust: Marshawn Lynch

Bust: Dwayne Bowe, Alex Smith

Reasonable Return: Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce, Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin

 

49ers @ Giants
-4 Spread 4
24 Team O/U 20
65.7 Plays/Gm 66.2
60.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.4
44.5% Rush % 41.9%
55.5% Pass % 58.1%
38.5% Opp. Rush % 45.7%
61.5% Opp. Pass % 54.3%

 

  • Frank Gore had a touch on 48 percent of his snaps last week, his second highest total of the season.
  • The Giants have given up 25 runs of 15 or more yards, the most in the league.
  • Colin Kaepernick has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just 13 of his 32 career starts and thrown for 300 or more yards just three times.
  • Michael Crabtree hasn’t finished higher than PPR WR34 since week 3.
  • Anquan Boldin hasn’t finished lower than PPR WR34 since week 4.
  • Vernon Davis is being targeted on 14.7 percent of his routes this season. He was at 20.4 percent in 2013.
  • Rueben Randle‘s PPR finishes since Victor Cruz was lost for the season: WR29, WR39 and WR39.
  • Odell Beckham‘s finishes: WR10, WR8 and WR18.
  • Randle’s ranks 50th in yards per target, 49th in points per target and 48th in points per reception amongst the top 50 scorers at receiver.

Trust: Frank Gore, Anquan Boldin

Bust: Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Andre Williams, Rueben Randle, Larry Donnell

Reasonable Return: Odell Beckham, Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick

 

Buccaneers @ Washington
8.5 Spread -8.5
18.5 Team O/U 27
59.6 Plays/Gm 62.9
67.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.8
36.6% Rush % 40.6%
63.4% Pass % 59.4%
44.1% Opp. Rush % 42.7%
55.9% Opp. Pass % 57.3%

 

  • Washington is tied with Denver for the league lead in yards per offensive plays (6.2 yards).
  • Washington is the best in the league on first down, averaging 6.4 yards per play.
  • DeSean Jackson has nine receptions of 40 or more yards this season, which is four more than next closest player.
  • Jackson has four 100-yard receiving games since week 5, tied with Golden Tate for the second most behind Demaryius Thomas over that time.
  • Jackson’s 12.9 yards per target leads all receivers in the top 50 scorers.
  • Jordan Reed leads all tight ends with a touch on 14.4 percent of his snaps.
  • Alfred Morris hasn’t rushed for 100- yards in 16 consecutive games.
  • Tampa Bay has allowed only one 100-yard rusher all season.
  • Mike Evans was the first Tampa Bay rookie wide receiver to ever have back to back 100-yard receiving games.
  • Evans has posted a higher yards per target mark than Vincent Jackson in every single game they’ve both been active this season.
  • Evans has a 12.1 yards per target average over the past three games compared to 5.8 by Jackson.

Trust: Robert Griffin, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Mike Evans

BustBobby Rainey, Charles Sims

Reasonable Return: Jordan Reed, Alfred Morris, Vincent Jackson, Josh McCown

 

Lions @ Cardinals
1 Spread -1
20.3 Team O/U 21.3
66.1 Plays/Gm 64.0
60.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.9
38.2% Rush % 40.6%
61.8% Pass % 59.4%
36.9% Opp. Rush % 36.7%
63.1% Opp. Pass % 63.3%

 

  • Detroit is last in league in yards per play on first down at 4.2.
  • Golden Tate has seven or more receptions in six consecutive games, tied with Demaryius Thomas for the longest active streak. He had two games with seven or more receptions in 58 career games with the Seahawks.
  • Calvin Johnson‘s past two lines over each of the past two seasons versus Arizona: 10/121/0 and 6/116/2.
  • Johnson was targeted on 25.9 percent of his snaps in his return, the fourth most in a game by any receiver this season with at least 45 snaps played.
  • Andre Ellington has 20 or more touches in seven games this season, tied for the second most with Le’Veon Bell behind DeMarco Murray.
  • Denver is the only team to score more than two offensive touchdowns facing Arizona this season.
  • Arizona has trailed in the fourth quarter in four of their eight wins this season.
  • Only the Raiders have punted on a higher percentage of their dives (53 percent) than the Cardinals this season (50 percent).
  • John Brown in week 3 (WR11) was the only Cardinals’ receiver to post a week inside the top 20 in Drew Stanton‘s three starts earlier in the season.
  • Brown is being targeted on 22.1 percent of his routes, Fitzgerald 18.5 percent and Michael Floyd 14.9 percent this season.
  • Larry Fitzgerald was a top 15 scorer in three of his past five games. His weekly finishes with Stanton as the starter were WR30, WR64 and WR43.
  • Detroit ranks 31st in yards per rushing attempt (3.1) while Arizona allows the fourth fewest yards per attempt (3.4).
  • The highest running back finish versus Arizona this season in PPR is RB16 by DeMarco Murray in week 9.

Trust: Calvin Johnson

Bust: Andre Ellington, Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, Michael Floyd, John Brown

Reasonable Return: Golden Tate, Matt Stafford, Larry Fitzgerald

 

Raiders @ Chargers
11.5 Spread -11.5
16.5 Team O/U 28
59.2 Plays/Gm 61.7
67.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.3
31.1% Rush % 43.2%
68.9% Pass % 56.8%
50.4% Opp. Rush % 41.9%
49.6% Opp. Pass % 58.1%

 

  • Oakland ranks third best in the league in red zone touchdown percentage (73 percent) but has reached the red zone a league low 15 times.
  • Oakland has allowed an opposing running back to score in every game except one (New England) this season.
  • The Chargers rank dead last in yards per carry at 3.06 per attempt.
  • Derek Carr‘s 8.3 Y/A versus San Diego in week 6 was the only game in which he’s had a Y/A above 7.0.
  • San Diego is allowing the 7th most passing points per attemt (0.48) and the past four quarterback finishes against the Chargers have been QB7, QB15, QB7 and QB3.
  • 16 of Mychal Rivera‘s 34 receptions this season (47 percent) have come in the fourth quarter while trailing, highest percentage in the league.
  • After posting top 10 scoring weeks in five of his first six games to open the season, Philip Rivers has finished outside the top 12 over his past three and QB20 or lower in two of those games.
  • Chargers receivers’ points per target and league rank: Malcom Floyd 2.25 (4th), Eddie Royal 2.17 (7th), Keenan Allen 1.38 (47th).
  • Floyd’s past five PPR weekly finishes versus Oakland: WR1, WR24, WR8, WR19 and WR11.

Trust: Derek Carr, Philip Rivers, Malcom Floyd

Bust: Antonio Gates, Branden Oliver, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Mychal Rivera

Reasonable Return: Keenan Allen, James Jones, Andre Holmes

 

Eagles @ Packers
5.5 Spread -5.5
24.5 Team O/U 30
71.2 Plays/Gm 59.7
70.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.7
40.1% Rush % 42.1%
59.9% Pass % 57.9%
43.4% Opp. Rush % 45.5%
56.6% Opp. Pass % 54.5%

 

  • Green Bay leads the league in points per offensive play (0.516). In perspective, the Broncos averaged 0.488 last season when they were the highest scoring team in league history.
  • In four games at home this season, Aaron Rodgers has 15 touchdowns to zero interceptions and a 9.9 Y/A.
  • Rodgers has the fourth most passing points in the league (190.3), but ranks 20th in pass attempts (277).
  • The Packers are allowing just 16.2 points per game at home this season (6th best) as well as 105 fewer yards per game as opposed to on the road this season.
  • The Packers have allowed 120 or more rushing yards in eight games this season, most in the league.
  • Since Mark Sanchez entered the game in week 9, Jordan Matthews and Jeremy Maclin each have seen 11 targets.
  • Darren Sproles is averaging 2.6 receptions per game, his lowest total since 2009.

Trust: Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, LeSean McCoy

Bust: Jeremy Maclin, Eddie Lacy, Darren Sproles

Reasonable Return: Mark Sanchez, Jordan Matthews, Randall Cobb

 

Patriots @ Colts
2.5 Spread -2.5
27.5 Team O/U 30
67.8 Plays/Gm 74.0
65.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.7
40.9% Rush % 38.3%
59.1% Pass % 61.7%
41.6% Opp. Rush % 35.9%
58.4% Opp. Pass % 64.1%

 

  • Andrew Luck has 40 or more pass attempts in seven games this season, most in the league.
  • Luck has thrown for 300 or more yards in seven consecutive games and eight times this season. The next highest total is a three way tie at five games with 300 or more passing yards.
  • Dwayne Allen has scored a touchdown in seven games this season, tied for the second most in the league with Dez Bryant and Julius Thomas.
  • The Colts allow on average 2.3 red zone touchdowns per game, second worst in the league.
  • New England averages 3.0 red zone touchdowns since week 4, most in the league.
  • The Patriots have scored on 64 percent (35 of 55) of their drives over the past six weeks.
  • In the five weeks prior to his bye, Rob Gronkowski was third in the NFL in receptions (36), 5th in receiving yards (516) and tied for second in touchdown (5).
  • Indianapolis has allowed seven top 12 scoring tight ends, tied for the most with Dallas.
  • Brandon LaFell has been a top 20 receiver in four of past six games (three in the top eight). Julian Edelman has finished there in just two of those weeks.
  • LaFell has been targeted only one fewer time (47) than Edelman over that same stretch.
  • Shane Vereen has played 76 percent of the Patriot snaps since Stevan Ridley was lost for the season. The six weeks prior, he played 48 percent of the snaps.

Trust: Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Shane Vereen, Rob Gronkowski

Bust: Brandon LaFell, Reggie Wayne

Reasonable Return: T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, Julian Edelman, Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jonas Gray

 

Steelers @ Titans
-7 Spread 7
26.8 Team O/U 19.8
67.6 Plays/Gm 57.1
60.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.9
39.5% Rush % 40.1%
60.5% Pass % 59.9%
40.5% Opp. Rush % 47.1%
59.5% Opp. Pass % 52.9%

 

  • 84.9 percent of the offensive yards gained by Steelers the past three weeks have been passing, highest percentage in the league.
  • Pittsburgh has scored a touchdown on just 12 percent of their drives (six of 50) on the road, 29th in the league. At home, they’ve scored a touchdown on 36 percent (21 of 59), third best in the league.
  • After beginning the season with 100 or more yards from scrimmage in all eight games, Le’Veon Bell has amassed only 127 total over the past two weeks with only 56 yards rushing on 21 attempts.
  • Tennessee is allowing 154.3 rushing yards per game over their past three, third worst in the league over that stretch.
  • Martavis Bryant has been targeted on 29.4 percent of his routes over the past three weeks, third highest in the league behind Demaryius Thomas and Percy Harvin.
  • Bryant has a touchdown reception in each of his first four games, joining Donte’ Stallworth and Charlie Brown as the only players to catch a touchdown in their first four games (Brown’s streak went five games).
  • Justin Hunter has played 94.2 percent of the Titan’s snaps over the past five games and has finished as a top 40 receiver in only two of those games.
  • There have been 19 better rushing performances by rookie runners than the 61 yard season high by Bishop Sankey this season.

Trust: Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown

Bust: Bishop Sankey, Justin Hunter

Reasonable Return: Ben Roethlisberger, Martavis Bryant, Kendall Wright

 

Context Key:

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

 

*Statistics provided by ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com. All Vegas Lines Provided by 5Dimes