Week 10 Fantasy Football: Last-Minute Lineup Advice

Andre Ellington

It’s week 10 in fantasy football, and time for another Sunday Stat Day, where all the significant stories and impactful numbers have their place. Here is the most relevant last-minute advice to make start and sit lineup decisions for your fantasy football team.

Andre Ellington stands fifth in the NFL with 22.6 touches per game, and also ranks fifth among running backs with 32 receptions this season. He has run for 562 yards, and 291 yards after contact, which respectively are seventh and eighth best in the league. In a year largely defined by running back uncertainty, Ellington is one of the few sure bets available for fantasy football lineups.

Carson Palmer ranks eighth among all quarterbacks with 277.0 yards per game, and eighth with 2.2 touchdowns per game. His touchdown to interception ratio is fourth best in the NFL, as he’s thrown for 11 scores and just two picks. And on the fantasy field, Palmer sits seventh with 19.2 points per game in standard scoring.

Julio Jones averages 6.6 receptions for 91.8 yards and 0.4 touchdowns, while Roddy White catches 4.7 passes for 59.9 yards and 0.4 scores per game. Jones ranks eighth in the league in yards per game. He’s 13th among receivers with 11.2 fantasy points per week. White’s 8.6 points per game rank 26th within the position. The Falcons travel to Tampa Bay this week to visit the 31st ranked pass defense, who is also dead last in scoring.

Within the red zone, the Baltimore backfield has been a pretty even split. Inside the opponent’s 20, Lorenzo Taliaferro has rushed 14 times, where Justin Forsett has carried 16 times and Bernard Pierce has 15 attempts. Within the 10, each back has seven carries, though Taliaferro has four scores, Pierce has two, and Forsett has been held scoreless.

Over the last two games, Forsett has averaged 17.0 touches for 95.0 total yards and no scores, while Taliaferro has 9.5 touches for 60.5 total yards and 1.0 touchdowns.

Sammy Watkins missed practice this week, and the head coach expressed pessimism about his availability. “No, I don’t think it is until the trainers tell me that he can go,” Doug Marrone said. “The guy can’t practice.” In his last two games, the rookie has caught 12 of 20 targets for 279 yards and three touchdowns.

Fred Jackson is listed as questionable for the 1:00 start against Kansas City. The Chiefs are bringing their 19th ranked run defense to town this weekend. They also rank number one against the pass and second in scoring.

Kyle Orton hasn’t had the starting job long in Buffalo, but he ranks seventh in the NFL with 282.0 yards per game. His average of 2.3 touchdowns is sixth best in the league.

Welcome back to the “DeAngelo and J-Stew Show.” You know ’em, you love ’em. You may have even been crazy enough to draft one or both of them. DeAngelo Williams returned from knee and ankle issues last week, after missing the previous four games. Last week against New Orleans, Williams ran eight times for 20 yards, and caught one pass for 30 yards. Jonathan Stewart rotated in the game for eight carries and 46 yards.

Since Stewart entered the league in 2008, the two backs have played 67 of 107 possible career games together. When united, Williams averages 14.4 touches for 74.4 total yards and 0.6 scores, while Stewart gets 11.5 touches for 57.3 total yards and 0.4 touchdowns. The Panthers get Philadelphia’s 20th ranked run defense on Monday Night Football.

Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery came off two difficult losses before their week nine bye. Miami’s number two and New England’s 15th ranked pass defenses held the receivers in check. Marshall averaged 4.5 catches for 41.5 yards, and Jeffery caught 3.5 passes for 34.0 yards each game. For the season, Marshall is on pace for 68 grabs, 768 yards, and 10 touchdowns, while Jeffery is projected for 76 receptions, 1,126 yards, and six scores. Chicago hopes to rebound this week at Lambeau Field, where Green Bay’s ninth ranked pass defense will host.

Despite missing nearly a game and a half, Tony Romo ranks 10th in the league with 15 passing touchdowns. This week, Dallas travels to Wembley Stadium to face the 1-8 Jaguars. This will count as a home game for Jacksonville, who ranks 25th against the pass, 24th against the run, and 30th in scoring.

DeMarco Murray continues his sheer dominance over NFL running backs. After rushing for 100 yards or more in his first eight games, Murray was held to just 79 yards in week nine’s loss to Arizona. The team has lost two in a row while their workhorse got just 19 carries in each game. Since Murray was drafted in the third round of 2011’s NFL Draft, Dallas is 17-1 in games where he garners 20 or more carries, and 8-20 when he attempts less. Without Murray on the field since 2011, they are 5-6.

Dez Bryant has scored twice in the last two weeks, one from each quarterback. Brandon Weeden started last week, and the team’s Pro Bowl receiver caught just two of 10 targets for 15 yards and a score. Bryant’s 99.5 fantasy points rank ninth among wideouts this year.

Since taking over lead back duties in week five, Ronnie Hillman has ranked fourth in the NFL with 363 rushing yards, and fifth among all runners with 72.4 fantasy points. He has averaged 20.0 touches for 96.8 total yards over that time. Hillman has four touchdowns in the last three games, having scored twice against San Francisco and twice last week in New England. Denver travels West to face Oakland’s 27th ranked run defense who is 26th in scoring.

Calvin Johnson practiced all week, and is probable to start week 10 against Miami. Detroit had their bye week nine. In Atlanta week eight, Joique Bell got 16 touches for 61 yards, and Theo Riddick got 11 touches for 79 yards and a score. Reggie Bush (ankle) is probable to return this week for his first action since week seven. ESPN Lions reporter Mike Rothstein said “the Lions still plan on giving his replacement, Theo Riddick, touches and snaps when they host the Dolphins.”

Green Bay
Since telling Packers fans to “R – E – L – A – X,” Aaron Rodgers has passed for 279.0 yards each week, while throwing 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He has the third most fantasy points during this stretch, with 24.4 each week.

This season, Eddie Lacy has surpassed 63 yards just once, and garnered over 14 carries only one time. The second-year back is averaging 15.8 touches for 79.6 total yards and 0.5 scores. His rookie season dazzled fantasy owners with an average of 21.3 touches for 95.7 total yards and 0.7 touchdowns. Lacy played 15 games last year, and Rodgers missed all or most of eight of them. From week five through season’s end, no one had more carries than the Packers’ feature back. Lacy’s 1,127 yards during that span were second only to LeSean McCoy‘s 1,138. Week five was when Green Bay came back from a bye, after Lacy was concussed in week two and missed the next game.

Denard Robinson harnessed the starting role in week seven, and has ranked second in rushing since, behind only DeMarco Murray. Shoelace also ranks fourth in carries over this time, averaging 20.0 touches for 116.3 total yards and 0.7 scores.

Kansas City
Over the last three weeks, Jamaal Charles ranks second among NFL running backs with 18.4 points per game. Since returning to health in week four, he has averaged 20.2 touches for 99.6 total yards and 1.4 touchdowns.

Lamar Miller has scored five times in the last five games. He ranks 10th in the NFL with 520 yards rushing. Miller leads the league in carries within the opponent’s 10-yard line (18) and 5-yard line (10), having scored five and four times respectively with those attempts.

New Orleans
Mark Ingram is getting a lot of red zone work as well, ranking second in carries within the opponent’s 5-yard line (9), and third within the 10-yard line (13). Over the last two weeks, Ingram ranks first in the NFL with 54 carries, 272 yards, and three touchdowns. Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson have been ruled out again for Sunday’s game against the 49ers.

New York Giants
Rashad Jennings (knee) is out for week 10, having not seen the field since week five. That leaves another week for Andre Williams to prove himself. Over the last four games, the rookie has averaged 17.5 touches for 59.8 total yards and 0.5 scores.

New York Jets
Fantasy owners have one more week of Percy Harvin before his second bye week and third non-playing week of 2014. He missed an extra game in transit, having been traded after the Jets played a Thursday night game in week seven. Harvin was the third most targeted receiver last week, having 13 passes thrown his way in the loss to Kansas City. Michael Vick connected on 11 of 13 to the former Seahawk, for 129 yards through the air. Harvin also ran once for eight yards and returned two kicks for 88 yards.

Among all 2014 running backs, Chris Ivory ranks fourth in missed tackles (26) and seventh with 303 yards after contact. His seven carries within the opponent’s 5-yard line are the ninth most.

James Jones is the leading receiver in Oakland, on pace to catch 78 of 118 targets for 886 yards and six scores.

Mark Sanchez stepped up in relief of Nick Foles last week, and completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 202 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Through eight games, Foles ranked 12th in the NFL with 2,039 yards.

Since week five, LeSean McCoy has averaged 25.3 touches for 115.0 total yards, but without a score. During that stretch, McCoy ranks second in the NFL in touches and fifth in total yards per game.

Le’Veon Bell ranks third in the league with 711 yards, third with 380 yards after contact, and second among all running backs with 47 receptions.

Ben Roethlisberger has become the story in town, however, after setting a new NFL record with 12 touchdown passes over two weeks. Perhaps that guy in your league is proposing new Roethlisberger trades now. That may have seemed downright looney a couple weeks ago. But if you play re-draft fantasy, listen up. Roethlisberger ranks second in completions (231), attempts (338), and yards (2,720), and his 22 touchdowns are third best. Only Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning have him beat in scoring, while Luck stands alone atop those remaining categories.

San Francisco
Frank Gore ranks ninth in rushing attempts this season, but his top ten status in rushing categories ends there. Gore averages 15.1 touches for 68.3 total yards, while rookie Carlos Hyde gets 7.1 touches for 24.4 total yards. They have each scored twice this year, and Hyde remains the preferred back at the goal line. In the red zone, Hyde has 15 carries to Gore’s 12. And within the opponent’s 5-yard line, Hyde has five rushes, where Gore has just two.

Despite the drama, Marshawn Lynch remains a feature back, and he still plays for the Seahawks. He is averaging 19.3 touches for 96.5 total yards and 1.0 touchdowns. Lynch’s 32 missed tackles rank third in the league, and he sits in second with 26 red zone carries.

St. Louis
Last week in San Francisco, Tre Mason got 19 carries for 65 yards. Benny Cunningham ran four times for 10 yards, while opening day starter Zac Stacy did not play a single snap. Over the last three weeks, Stacy has played 16 snaps (0.1 percent of team’s snaps), and gotten eight touches for 20 yards. Cunningham has played 53 snaps (32.9 percent), using 19 touches to create 132 total yards and a touchdown. Over this span, Mason has played 85 snaps (52.8 percent), and touched the ball 46 times for 175 total yards and a score.

Tampa Bay
Doug Martin missed the last game with an ankle injury. Bobby Rainey rose to the occasion, getting 20 touches for 121 total yards. Rookie Charles Sims was activated from injured reserve on Saturday, November 1. Bucs reporter Tom Krasniqi of Tampa Bay 620 WDAE said, “From the sound of things, RB Charles Sims will play a TON when he’s ready.” Sims is listed as questionable to face Atlanta’s 25th ranked run defense. “The time is here now,” the rookie said after practice Friday.

Zach Mettenberger made his first NFL start before Tennessee’s bye last week. The rookie connected on 63.0 percent of his passes for 316 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Titans travel to Baltimore Sunday to square off versus the league’s 24th ranked pass defense.

Stats and data courtesy of pro-football-reference.com, footballguys, espn, and profootballfocus.com.

author avatar
Dave Major
Senior Fantasy Analyst for @XNSports. While not wasting immeasurable time as a stand-up comic in New York, Dave Major can be found watching three football games at once and telling people how to live their fantasy lives. If you're out of ideas, use your one phone call on !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');