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Fantasy Football Week 8 Worksheet

Rich Hribar breaks down every game in the NFL to find the best fantasy football matchups.

Sammy Watkins

We’re past the halfway mark of the fantasy regular season, so let’s get going downhill by hitting the week 8 games bullet point style…

Chargers @ Broncos
9.5 Spread -9.5
22 Team O/U 29
64.0 Plays/Gm 64.2
59.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.0
46.0% Rush % 41.3%
54.0% Pass % 58.7%
40.2% Opp. Rush % 32.8%
59.8% Opp. Pass % 67.2%

 

  • Denver has allowed 130 rushing yards total the past three weeks.
  • The Broncos have allowed just eight runs of 10 or more yards this season, fewest in the league.
  • San Diego is still last in the entire NFL in fantasy points per rushing attempt (0.39).
  • Quarterbacks facing the Broncos the past three weeks have completed only 50.4 percent of their passes.
  • These two offenses have combined to turn it over on only seven of 139 possessions this season.
  • Denver has scored a touchdown on 42 percent (14 of 33) of their first half possessions this season, best in the league. The Chargers rank third, scoring a touchdown on 12 of 36 first half drives.
  • In their three meetings last season, San Diego dominated time of possession by +22:50, but scored a touchdown on just seven of their 30 possessions and ran the same number of offensive plays (183) as Denver did.
  • Wes Welker has seen just 14 percent of the team targets since returning.
  • Antonio Gates has scored just six touchdowns in his past 17 games against the Broncos and totaled six catches for 85 yards in their two meetings last season.
  • Julius Thomas has four or fewer targets in four of six games this season.

Trust: Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders

Bust: Ronnie Hillman, Branden Oliver, Antonio Gates, Keenan Allen

Reasonable Return: Wes Welker, Julius Thomas, Philip Rivers, Eddie Royal

 

Lions at London Falcons
-3.5 Spread 3.5
25.3 Team O/U 21.8
65.9 Plays/Gm 64.1
61.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.6
40.1% Rush % 33.9%
59.9% Pass % 66.1%
36.3% Opp. Rush % 50.2%
63.7% Opp Pass % 49.8%

 

  • Atlanta is the second lowest scoring team in the NFL over the past three weeks at 13.3 points per game.
  • The Falcons average only 2.0 red zone drives per game, second to last in the league (Oakland).
  • Atlanta averages 105 fewer yards (342.8) per game outside of ther Georgia Dome this season.
  • Matt Ryan‘s past four weekly finishes have been QB14, QB19, QB21 and QB23.
  • Detroit has allowed just six pass plays of 25 or more yards, fewest in the league.
  • The Lions have allowed the fewest fantasy passing points on the season (72.2) and the fewest per attempt (0.29).
  • Golden Tate has 32 percent of the team targets over the past four weeks and his 32 receptions over that stretch is second behind only Matt Forte (33).

Trust: Golden Tate, Joique Bell

Bust: Matt Ryan

Reasonable Return:  Julio Jones, Roddy White, Matt Stafford

 

Bills @ Jets
2.5 Spread -2.5
19 Team O/U 22
64.3 Plays/Gm 66.6
64.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.4
38.9% Rush % 43.6%
61.1% Pass % 56.4%
38.5% Opp. Rush % 39.6%
61.5% Opp Pass % 60.4%

 

  • The Bills rank 32nd in the league in first downs per offensive play, while the Jets rank 31st.
  • As a result, the Bills have punted the second most times (41), while the Jets the third most (37).
  • Sammy Watkins 16 game pace with EJ: 68-788-8. With Kyle Orton: 96-1259-11.
  • Kyle Orton leads the league in completions (85) and is fourth in passing yards (890) since taking over as the starter.
  • The Jets are the only team to allow multiple touchdown passes in every game this season.
  • Jace Amaro is being targeted on 28 percent of his routes, fourth highest at tight end.

Trust: Sammy Watkins, Kyle Orton

Bust: Bryce Brown, Anthony Dixon, Chris Ivory

Reasonable Return: Geno Smith, Eric Decker, Percy Harvin, Robert Woods

 

Ravens @ Bengals
0 Spread 0
23 Team O/U 23
65.4 Plays/Gm 61.2
64.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 75.7
44.8% Rush % 44.4%
55.2% Pass % 55.6%
36.4% Opp. Rush % 39.9%
63.6% Opp Pass % 60.1%

 

  • The Bengals have averaged 428.3 yards of offense at home this season as opposed to 278.3 yards per game on the road.
  • Baltimore is allowing a league low 0.231 points per play to opposing offenses.
  • The Ravens have allowed two first half touchdowns this season, fewest in the league.
  • Cincinnati is surrendering 179.3 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks, most in the league.
  • The Bengals have allowed 75 or more yards to the tight end position in five of six games, including 14 catches for 117 yards to Dennis Pitta and Owen Daniels in week 1.
  • After catching 11 passes over the first two weeks, Gio Bernard has nine receptions over his past four games.
  • Bernard has 19 total catches in three games facing the Ravens and five or more in each game.
  • Andy Dalton has never had a 20 point fantasy game against the Ravens in seven games and has completed just 55 percent of his career passes facing them.
  • Torrey Smith has scored once every 9.8 targets on the season, fourth best of all receivers.
  • Smith is being targeted on only 16.3 percent of his routes, 67th of qualifying receivers.

Trust: Justin Forsett, Owen Daniels

Bust: Torrey Smith, Jeremy Hill, Andy Dalton

Reasonable Return: Steve Smith, Joe Flacco, Gio Bernard

 

Seahawks @ Panthers
-5 Spread 5
24.5 Team O/U 20
60.0 Plays/Gm 65.4
62.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.4
47.2% Rush % 39.1%
52.8% Pass % 60.9%
42.4% Opp. Rush % 41.0%
57.6% Opp Pass % 59.0%

 

  • Only 19.7 percent of the yards gained by Carolina this season have been rushing, lowest mark at home this season.
  • Over the past three weeks, quarterbacks have completed 77.7 percent of their passes against Carolina.
  • Seattle ran 39 plays this past week down double digits (72% pass). They ran 47 plays down by 10 or more all of 2013.
  • Over the past five weeks, Carolina has allowed 23 runs of 10 or more yards, most in the NFL, and 18 passes of 20 or more yards, fifth most.
  • Russell Wilson already has 50.7 rushing fantasy points; nearly double that of the next best quarterback (Colin Kaepernick, 26.2).
  • Wilson has more 100-yard rushing games (two) than Marshawn Lynch (one) this season.
  • Only 28.6 percent of Wilson’s fantasy output has come from touchdown passes, which is 35th in touchdown dependency out of all quarterbacks.
  • Doug Baldwin had 30.5 percent of the Seattle targets last week, he had 18.4 percent of the targets weeks 1-6.
  • In Greg Olsen‘s past 16 games, he has 84 catches for 949 yards and nine touchdowns.
  • Cam Newton has finished as a top 10 quarterback only once so far this season.

Trust: Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch

Bust: Cam Newton, Johnathan Stewart

Reasonable Return: Greg Olsen, Kelvin Benjamin, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse

 

Texans @ Titans
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
59.6 Plays/Gm 57.7
68.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.1
51.1% Rush % 42.3%
48.9% Pass % 57.7%
41.2% Opp. Rush % 45.5%
58.8% Opp Pass % 54.5%

 

  • The last time Andre Johnson reached 100 yards in a game versus the Titans was in 2009.
  • Johnson is being targeted on 27.4 percent of his routes (5th best at WR), while DeAndre Hopkins has been targeted on 19.1 percent of his (48th).
  • Hopkins has been a weekly top 24 scorer in five of seven games so far, while Johnson just twice.
  • Justin Hunter has seen just 12 targets the past three weeks despite playing 96 percent of the snaps.
  • Arian Foster has rushed for 100 or more yards in three consecutive weeks for the second time in his career.
  • Foster has only 11 fewer rushing yards than DeMarco Murray over the past three weeks on 25 fewer carries.

Trust: Arian Foster

Bust: Delanie Walker, Bishop Sankey, Justin Hunter

Reasonable Return: DeAndre Hopkins, Andre Johnson, Kendall Wright

 

Bears @ Patriots
7 Spread -7
21.5 Team O/U 28.5
63.3 Plays/Gm 65.7
61.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.0
36.6% Rush % 41.9%
63.4% Pass % 58.1%
41.5% Opp. Rush % 44.9%
58.5% Opp Pass % 55.1%

 

  • The Bears allowed 11 100-yard rushers in 2013, this season the most rushing yards by a back against Chicago this season was Frank Gore at 63 yards.
  • The Patriots have scored on 61 percent (20 of 33) of their drives over the past three weeks, best in the league, and are the only team without a turnover during that stretch.
  • After an average finish of QB27 over the first four weeks, Tom Brady has been the average QB5 over the past three weeks with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions.
  • Over the past three weeks, Rob Gronkowski has played 183 snaps as opposed to 143 over the first four weeks and leads all tight ends in receiving yards (262) over those weeks.
  • Julian Edelman has just two 100-yard receiving games and four total touchdowns in the games Gronkowski has been active since the start of last season.
  • Last week was the first time Jay Cutler has scored in the single digits for a full game since week 15 of 2012.
  • Alshon Jeffery has converted just four of his 25 red zone targets for scores since the start of last season.

Trust: Martellus Bennett, Matt Forte, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski

Bust: Alshon Jeffery

Reasonable Return: Shane Vereen, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Julian Edelman

 

Rams @ Chiefs
7.5 Spread -7.5
17.5 Team O/U 26
65.2 Plays/Gm 64.7
60.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 59.3
39.6% Rush % 47.9%
60.4% Pass % 52.1%
50.3% Opp. Rush % 41.9%
49.7% Opp Pass % 58.1%

 

  • Tre Mason has three runs of 10 or more yards on 23 attempts, Benn Cunningham four on 36 attempts and Zac Stacy four on 61 attempts.
  • Austin Davis has completed at least 70 percent of his passes in three of his five starts.
  • The Chiefs are the 8th best defense in terms of points allowed per rushing attempt this seaosn and are one of two teams (Buffalo) yet to allow a rushing touchdown.
  • The Rams have been outscored 110-56 in the second half this season and are allowing the most points after halftime (18.3) in the league.
  • Jamaal Charles averages 3.1 receptions per game for 32.1 yards over his last 11 games (which includes the 8-195 game from week 15 last season) and reached five receptions in a game just two times. During his first nine games with Andy Reid, he averaged 5.2 receptions per game for 43.2 yards and had five or more catches in seven of nine games.
  • No Chiefs wide receiver has caught a touchdown pass yet this season.

Trust: Jamaal Charles

Bust: Travis Kelce, Tre Mason, Benny Cunningham, Jared Cook

Reasonable Return: Alex Smith, Dawyne Bowe, Austin Davis, Brian Quick

Dolphins @ Jaguars
-7 Spread 7
25 Team O/U 18
67.0 Plays/Gm 62.0
67.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 70.7
42.3% Rush % 35.3%
57.7% Pass % 64.7%
39.6% Opp. Rush % 41.4%
60.4% Opp Pass % 58.6%

 

  • The Dolphins are second in the NFL in red zone attempts per game at 4.7.
  • Ryan Tannehill has rushed for 35 or more yards in three consecutive weeks.
  • Tannehill’s past three weekly finishes have been QB11, Q14 and QB4.
  • Mike Wallace has scored in nine of his past 12 games dating back to last season.
  • Wallace has reached 100-yards receiving in just six of his past 52 games played.
  • Miami is allowing a league low 4.7 yards per play to the opposition.
  • Miami is allowing a league low 5.6 yards per pass attempt to opposing quarterbacks.
  • Blake Bortles has thrown multiple interceptions in four of his first five games played.
  • The Jaguars have held three of their past four opponents to 70 or fewer rushing yards.
  • The 185 rushing yards posted by the Jaguars last week were the most they’ve had since week 3 of 2012.

Trust: Ryan Tannehill

Bust: Blake Bortles, Denard Robinson

Reasonable Return: Lamar Miller, Mike Wallace, Charles Clay, Allen Robinson, Clay Harbor

 

Vikings @ Buccaneers
2.5 Spread -2.5
20 Team O/U 22
59.2 Plays/Gm 63.8
62.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.3
42.6% Rush % 35.5%
57.4% Pass % 64.5%
42.8% Opp. Rush % 45.4%
57.2% Opp Pass % 54.6%

 

  • The Vikings average 1.4 offensive touchdowns per game, fewest in the league.
  • Tampa Bay is allowing a league high 3.7 offensive touchdowns per game to opponents.
  • The Bucs allow a first down on 34.4 percent of plays against them, highest in the league.
  • In Teddy Bridgewater‘s first start, the Vikings scored on eight of their 10 possessions with him in the game. In his past two starts, they’ve scored on just five 26 possessions.
  • Bridgewater is last of all starters in points per attempt (0.23), but Tampa Bay is allowing 0.56 points per attempt, most in the league.
  • The Vikings average only 18.6 yards per drive over the past three weeks, lowest in the league.
  • Jerick McKinnon has 38 touches the past two weeks to Matt Asiata‘s 10.
  • The Vikings have allowed 19 sacks the past three weeks.
  • Vincent Jackson‘s 5.7 yards per target ranks 49th of the top 50 scoring receivers and his 1.19 points per targets ranks 50th.
  • Mike Glennon has thrown multiple touchdowns in 11 of his 16 starts. Those 11 games with two touchdown tosses are more than Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco have since the start of last season.

Trust: Jerick McKinnon

Bust: Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson, Doug Martin

Reasonable Return: Teddy Bridgewater, Mike Glennon, Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans

 

Eagles @ Cardinals
2.5 Spread -2.5
25 Team O/U 23
68.7 Plays/Gm 63.3
71.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.7
40.5% Rush % 42.1%
59.5% Pass % 57.9%
41.8% Opp. Rush % 37.3%
58.2% Opp Pass % 62.7%

 

  • Nick Foles ranks 29th out of all quarterbacks in passing points per attempt (0.38).
  • Foles’ average weekly rank over his past three games is QB24.
  • Andre Ellington has scored on just six of his 287 touches to start his career and just twice inside the 10-yard line.
  • Ellington is averaging 21.7 touches per game, a near 350 touch pace over 16 games.
  • LeSean McCoy is last out of all running backs in fantasy points per rushing attempt (0.41) out of the top 50 scorers on the season.
  • The Cardinals have allowed only one 100-yard rusher over their past 22 games.
  • The Eagles have allowed two or more touchdown passes in eight of their past 11 games, including three to Carson Palmer last season at home.

Trust: Carson Palmer, Michael Floyd

Bust: Larry Fitzgerald, LeSean McCoy, Darren Sproles, Jeremy Maclin

Reasonable Return: Andre Ellington, Nick Foles, Zach Ertz

 

Raiders @ Browns
7.5 Spread -7.5
17 Team O/U 26
55.0 Plays/Gm 65.8
67.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.2
33.6% Rush % 49.1%
66.4% Pass % 50.9%
53.6% Opp. Rush % 45.5%
46.4% Opp Pass % 54.5%

 

  • Oakland averages 15.7 first downs per game, lowest mark in the league.
  • The Raiders have scored on just 16 drives this season, fewest in the NFL.
  • Oakland has allowed four top 10 running backs over their past three games.
  • Cleveland has now allowed 127 yards on the ground or more in every game so far this season and allow the fourth most points per rushing attempt.
  • The Browns have allowed six top 15 running backs on the season.
  • The Browns allow 6.7 yards on first down, most in the league.
  • Jordan Cameron ranks 20th out of 24 tight ends with at least 25 targets in points per target.

Trust: Ben Tate, Darren McFadden

Bust: Derek Carr, Andre Holmes, James Jones

Reasonable Return: Jordan Cameron, Andrew Hawkins

 

Colts @ Steelers
-2.5 Spread 2.5
26 Team O/U 23
76.9 Plays/Gm 66.9
57.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 59.7
41.1% Rush % 41.2%
58.9% Pass % 58.8%
36.8% Opp. Rush % 42.8%
63.2% Opp Pass % 57.2%

 

  • The Colts have allowed only two touchdown passes over the past four weeks.
  • Ahmad Bradshaw has scored once every 13.4 touches this season, Trent Richardson once every 60 touches.
  • Only four of Andrew Luck‘s 19 passing touchdowns have gone to a Colts wide receiver.
  • T.Y. Hilton has finished the four weeks as a top 17 receiver each week and leads the league in receiving yards (525) over that stretch (hat tip to Demaryius Thomas and his 521 yards in only three games played).
  • Indianapolis is allowing the second most rushing points per attempt (0.75) on the season, but has seen the third fewest carries against them.
  • Le’Veon Bell has topped 80 yards from scrimmage in 16 consecutive weeks, longest streak in the league.
  • Bell over his past 16 games: 297 carries for 1,251 yards and six rushing scores. 68 receptions for 656 yards and one touchdown.

Trust: Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Andrew Luck, Ahmad Bradshaw, T.Y. Hilton

Bust: Markus Wheaton, Hakeem Nicks

Reasonable Return: Ben Roethlisberger, Trent Richardson, Heath Miller

 

Packers @ Saints
0 Spread 0
28 Team O/U 28
58.6 Plays/Gm 69.8
69.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.5
42.7% Rush % 35.8%
57.3% Pass % 64.2%
46.6% Opp. Rush % 41.2%
53.4% Opp Pass % 58.8%

 

  • 40.7 percent of the yardage gained on Green Bay this season has been rushing, highest percentage in the league.
  • The Packers have allowed the second most rushing points on the season at 143.5.
  • 41.5 percent of Mark Ingram‘s fantasy points come from touchdowns, second highest dependency of all running backs (Isaiah Crowell).
  • The Saints have turned the ball over on 19 percent of their drives this season, highest in the league.
  • The Saints have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to every team except Cleveland and Minnesota, Aaron Rodgers has thrown three or more touchdowns in five of his past six games.
  • Drew Brees hasn’t finished in the back half of weekly scoring in any week, but his highest weekly finish this season has been QB8.
  • Travaris Cadet‘s 20 targets are tied with Brandin Cooks for second most on the team over the past three games.

Trust: Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Mark Ingram

Bust: Brandin Cooks

Reasonable Return: Eddie Lacy, Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Travaris Cadet

 

Washington @ Cowboys
10 Spread -10
20 Team O/U 29.5
62.9 Plays/Gm 65.9
61.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 56.7
38.6% Rush % 50.9%
61.4% Pass % 49.1%
43.9% Opp. Rush % 40.6%
56.1% Opp Pass % 59.4%

 

  • Washington is second in the league in yards per play (6.2 yards) behind New Orleans.
  • Alfred Morris hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in 14 consecutive games played.
  • Morris has carried 44 times for 124 yards over his past three games.
  • In 21 career starts, Colt McCoy has topped 250 passing yards only twice and thrown multiple touchdowns only five times.
  • DeMarco Murray has 124 rushing attempts on first down plays this season, more than or equal to the total rushing attempts by Oakland (111) and Tampa Bay (124).
  • On just his first down rushing stats (686 yards and five touchdowns), Murray would be the RB2 in standard scoring formats.
  • Over the past five weeks, Tony Romo leads the NFL in completion percentage at 71.6 percent and is second behind only Philip Rivers in yards per attempt 9.0.
  • Romo ranks fourth in passing points per attempt, but just 16th in pass attempts.

Trust: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, Jordan Reed

Bust: Jason Witten, Terrance Williams

Reasonable Return: Alfred Morris, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon

 

*Statistics provided by ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com. All Vegas Lines Provided by 5Dimes

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