The fog of nonexistent sample sizes is lifting from the fantasy football landscape, giving us an always-improving view of which defenses to attack with which positions — a proverbial road map to exploiting the most generous NFL defenses.
We saw confirmation of this emerging clarity yesterday, as Joe Flacco — who was barely serviceable for the first five weeks of 2014 — went nuclear against the horrid Tampa Bay secondary, posting 306 yards and five touchdowns. We saw Washington, Atlanta, Arizona, and the Jets this week once again give up buckets full of fantasy points to opposing signal callers.
The Falcons, Raiders, and Giants continued to be gouged in Week 6 by opposing running backs, while the Steelers, Bengals, and Titans were as reliably generous to tight ends as they’ve been all season.
It’s all very encouraging, especially for those who forgo the static lineup strategy and play matchups. There are no absolutes in fantasy football — making the game different than, well, nothing — but it’s critically important to know which teams are hemorrhaging yardage and touchdowns to various positions.
Below is a quick look at the most vulnerable defenses and how we can plan ahead in taking full advantage of objectively favorable matchups.
- It’s obvious that teams are game planning around scoring via the pass against the Bucs’ terrible coverage unit. Teams are throwing early and often against Tampa, with opposing quarterbacks tossing an incredible 15 touchdowns against the Bucs through six weeks. It’s more than the touchdowns though: Tampa is allowing 301 passing yards per contest. Quarterbacks are completing passes at a 71.4 percent rate against the Bucs. Teddy Bridgewater and Brian Hoyer get their cracks at the oh-so-generous Tampa secondary in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively. I wouldn’t begrudge anyone for taking a strict stream-against-Tampa approach to the quarterback position from here on out.
- The Falcons’ defense is generous to just about every position not named tight end. Atlanta is giving up 104.3 fantasy points per game to opposing teams — the eighth worst mark in the league. The team’s run defense is particularly atrocious through six weeks, allowing 27.5 fantasy points, on average, to running backs. The Falcons’ run defense is so bad that I might hesitate to play quarterbacks against Atlanta. Why would a team take to the air when they can just obliterate the Falcons’ front seven to the tune of 111.3 rushing yards and 1.5 rushing scores per game? Take away the Falcons’ Week 3 demolition of the Bucs and the numbers are much uglier. Running backs on the Ravens and Lions — the Falcons’ next two opponents — get marked upgrades in Weeks 7 and 8.
- The Bengals, against teams that utilize their tight ends as pass catchers, are allowing an average of 9.25 receptions, 111 yards and .75 touchdowns to the position. Those numbers are jaw dropping, though they’ll certainly even out (a little bit) over time. Cincy’s safeties and linebackers have some of the worst pass coverage grades on Pro Football Focus, and it showed once again in Week 6 as Greg Olsen caught six of 10 targets for 62 yards and a score. The Bengals are now prime streaming targets, and tight ends from the Colts, Ravens and Jaguars will get their cracks at Cincy’s defense over the next few weeks. Plan accordingly.
Matchups matter in fantasy football, as uncomfortable as it might be to deploy a mediocre player against a bad defense.
Keep tabs on how these teams adjust in the coming weeks — regression will kick in for some of these units — but remember that the clarity we now have after six weeks can be an invaluable tool in securing an edge on your competitors, if you want it.
Here are a few more takeaways from Week 6…
- Cam Newton, without the running production that has made him a fantasy force for the past three seasons, wasn’t anything close to an every-week starter. Newton has been one of the rare signal callers who has consistently cracked the magical .60 fantasy points per dropback mark during his NFL career. This distinction usually belongs to running quarterbacks who don’t necessarily put up big numbers through the air, but tack on enough running production to prove brutally efficient in almost any matchup. Newton, coming into Week 6, had scored a meager .42 fantasy points per dropback, thanks to 14 rushing attempts for 43 yards. With his surgically repaired ankle close to 100 percent — according to Panthers’ coaches — Newton returned to rushing form against the Bengals. He finished with 17 attempts for 101 yards — a classic Cam stat line of old. That led to a .73 fantasy points per dropback mark that spells good news for those who invested in Newton this summer. Newton’s upcoming matchups are decidedly unfavorable, but with rushing production will come consistency that transcends matchups.
- Odell Beckham, Jr. is expected to take over the Victor Cruz role in New York after Cruz’s devastating knee injury last night against Philadelphia. Beckham has acquitted himself nicely since overcoming a lingering hamstring injury that kept him sidelined for the season’s first four weeks. OBJ, who compares favorably to Greg Jennings, has been targeted eight times on just 59 pass routes in his two games as a Giant, collecting 114 yards and a score. That’s good news as he prepares for what could be an outsized role opposite Rueben Randle in Big Blue’s post-Cruz offense. Beckham should be owned in every 12-team league. His next few games are against pretty tough pass defenses, but his end-of-season schedule could not be juicier.
- Sunday was a good day for those who bank on talent rising to the top. I can’t say I’m a member of said group because my estimation of who is talented and who is not has nothing to do with how teams view players. But I digress. Jerick McKinnon, the Vikings’ electrifying rookie runner, took over as the team’s lead back yesterday against Detroit, out-snapping Matt Asiata 48-15 after a fairly even split in recent weeks. This shift could have something to do with Asiata dropping a pass early against the Lions on that led to an interception, or it could be that the Vikings believe the ultra-athletic McKinnon gives them the best chance to win. Pro Football Focus grades McKinnon as one of the league’s most elusive backs, and though his upcoming schedule is tougher than tough, I think he’ll fast become a plug-and-play starter in a Minnesota offense that desperately needs someone to matriculate the football down the field.
