The NFL preseason seems like an eternity ago, when really it was just about six weeks ago when we were overly confident in which teams would run away with their divisions and who would be competing for a Lombardi Trophy in February.
Fast forward to the start of Week 6, and there are multiple divisional races that we incorrectly predicted. The Eagles are fending off the surging Giants and Cowboys. The AFC East is up for grabs. And it’s the Lions are sharing first place in the NFC North with the Packers, while the Bears are looking up at them in the standings.
Those teams struggling in the standings must start to turn things around, and quick, if they’re to make our preseason playoff picks correct. Here are some diagnoses for those sub-.500 teams we thought could make a run at the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints (2-3)
Oh, the Saints. This team has been my Achilles’ heel all season long, beginning with their unfathomable shortcoming at the hands of Atlanta in the season opener to the late-game folly against the Browns and just skidding by the likes of Minnesota and Tampa Bay. At 2-3, with the top three teams in the NFC South all within a game of one another, there’s still time for New Orleans to turn it around.
Sure, the Saints won on Sunday, but in the least convincing fashion possible against a struggling Bucs squad. But with so much talent up and down the roster, it’s obvious this team is dealing with an execution issue. As the Saints embark on their bye week, there are certain areas in need of a makeover.
The Saints have the NFL’s top-ranked offense, averaging 26.4 points and 442.8 yards per game and with a very respectable 2:1 pass to run ratio. Still, I don’t think this unit is clicking on all cylinders. A healthy Mark Ingram provides the Saints with a more solid rushing attack. Pierre Thomas is more of a passing-down option and is the team’s best pass-blocker. Khiry Robinson is loaded with raw talent, but to me, he disappears for long stretches at a time, whether it’s him or the play-callers’ fault.
Aside from Jimmy Graham, I can’t find a consistent pass-catcher on this team. Brandin Cooks is a rookie, so it’s expected that he may struggle being a solid weapon week in and week out. But what about Marques Colston and Robert Meachem? Both veterans made the team to be reliable targets for Drew Brees as he breaks in a number of young weapons. And what about finding ways to get arguably their top playmaker, Kenny Stills, more involved? Stills is a deep threat, but he can move the chains and always has the ability of breaking long runs if he were to catch shorter routes in open space.
Defense still is the biggest question mark. The signing of Jairus Byrd has proved to be the flop of the offseason, and instead of solidifying one of the best secondaries in the league it’s actually made it worse. New Orleans ranks 27th in total defense, getting torched through the air to the tune of 268 yards per game. Rob Ryan has been toying around with different looks for his secondary, but the ideal situation is to have Byrd, Kenny Vaccaro and Corey White all on the field in a three-safety set, keeping Patrick Robinson on the sidelines as often as possible.
Robinson, the Saints’ No. 2 corner opposite Keenan Lewis, allowed a near-perfect QB rating of 156.3 against Tony Romo Week 4, per Pro Football Focus. After being moved to a slot role Week 5 and lining White up on the field in his place, Robinson surrendered a single catch for nine yards on three targets with an interception and a pass breakup. He thrives when the pressure is off.
Chicago Bears (2-3)
The tale of two halves should be the lead on every game recap for the Bears this season, and it’s not only Jay Cutler deserving of blame. Marc Trestman has assembled an opportunistic defense, one that has won them games against the Jets and 49ers, but cost them against the Packers and Panthers.
Interestingly enough, offensive guru Trestman coordinates an offense ranked 17th in the NFL. The Bears have been relying heavily on Cutler and the passing game, despite injuries nagging both Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. It’s allowed Martellus Bennett to shine from the tight end position, but the Trestman offense revolves around big plays outside the numbers, which is not what you’ll get by throwing to Bennett every other play.
While airing it out, the Bears have inexplicably shied away from getting Matt Forte the ball. The Bears’ running attack is averaging 102.4 yards per game and 4.3 yards per attempt. But it is not for a lack of trying. Forte’s 28 rushing attempts are eighth-most in the league, but game situations have forced Trestman to to stop handing it off when trailing in the second half.
One strategy Trestman saw success with Week 5 against Carolina was getting Forte the ball as a receiver out of the backfield. Forte has the second-most receptions in the league behind only Julio Jones, hauling in a dozen passes against the Panthers for 105 yards and a touchdown. Forte is a mismatch for most NFL linebackers, a mismatch the Bears need to exploit.
Defensively, the Bears are in the middle of the pack when it comes to both their pass and rush defenses, but excelling in neither phase has allowed the unit to give up 26.2 points per contest. But because they’re an opportunistic defense, it comes to winning the turnover battle.
The Bears are +1 in the turnover differential because they’ve taken away 11 balls while giving up 10. That’s a product of classic good Jay Cutler vs. bad Jay Cutler, an unsolvable predicament that’s plagued the Bears for years. There needs to be emphasis on ball security, because Cutler’s follies are essentially canceling out the defense’s turnovers, and subsequently the outcome of games.
New York Jets (1-4)
Nobody expected the Jets to overtake New England as the top team in the AFC East, but if Geno Smith were to progress in his sophomore season this team had a chance to make some noise and perhaps earn a Wild Card berth.
Of course, Smith has not progressed whatsoever, and his starting job is very much up in the air as he seemingly takes a step backward with each passing week. It doesn’t help that his top target, Eric Decker, has been in and out of the lineup as he deals with a hamstring injury. Second-round pick Jace Amaro has failed to be a difference-maker in his first season, and with a lack of weapons on the perimeter, a tight end needs to be a safety valve for a young quarterback.
Smith’s lack of development is certainly a cause for a concern. The Jets have now whiffed on Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow and Smith — that’s a first and second-round pick, which inevitably sets organizations back. If the Jets do eventually hand the offense over to Michael Vick, it’s a temporary solution. At his age and at this point in his career, you have to hope he can channel his Pro Bowl form and take advantage of the running game and the few weapons around. But with the lack of weapons, he would need to be a playmaker, and is he capable of being that at his age?
Defense is this team’s only hope to turn things around. A strong defense can help cover up the lack of offensive firepower. And the good news is Rex Ryan’s unit is getting healthier each week.
Dee Milliner has rejoined the secondary and Calvin Pryor should be a go for Week 6, and for the first time all season the defense is close to full strength. The Jets have been strong up front all year, but now that back end is sured up, which could result in more takeaways. That unit will be tested against Peyton Manning this week.
But once the Broncos come and go, the Jets are likely to be sitting at 1-5. That’s a tough spot to be in after six weeks, but the following four games gives the team a chance to be right back in the thick of the AFC East race if they can find their stride. New England, Buffalo, Kansas City and Pittsburgh before the Week 11 bye week is essentially the Jets’ season, and it is a stretch of games that present winnable matchups. Going 4-0 in those games — while absurdly difficult and maybe not very realistic — would salvage the year and in theory would put the Jets somewhere in the middle of the pack of the very unimpressive group of AFC East teams.
Defensively, the Jets can make those four games close. Smith or Vick just needs to fill that Kyle Orton sort of role of not messing things up.
