San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+3.5)*
As poorly as underdogs have performed on Thursday Night Football is as successful they have been on Monday nights: 1-4 versus 4-1 against the spread, respectively. Week 6 concludes with its eighth division game, and, according to the percentages, what appears to be one of the most ‘obvious’ picks of the week.
As always, beware.
The situation in which these two teams meet is almost identical to the Week 4 matchup just over one year ago. On September 26, 2013 (a Thursday, not a Monday, but still on a nationally televised game), the 49ers went into St. Louis as a three-and-a-half point favorite. San Francisco was considered as much of an ‘easy pick’ last year as they are this time around, as well.
What happened? The 49ers blew the doors off the Rams, 35-11. The pick was, indeed, that easy.
One slight difference exists between the similar games. Thursday Night Football has featured a high number of blowouts, most of which came from the favorite. One theory behind this result is that the ‘weaker teams’ (underdogs) suffer greater from the shortened week of preparation. When given a full week – and a day, for Monday night games – the gap is shortened.
The familiarity between the two teams should result in a much closer game than the 2013 version of Week 6’s finale, but the 49ers should still prevail in the end. The Rams, however, have played to one-score finishes in each of their last three games. It happens again on Monday Night Football, as the 49ers win by a field goal, but St. Louis beats the spread.
