The value of the fantasy hockey defensemen is typically depressed when looking at the value of the entire league. A few notes on this:
- The roto category Average Time On Ice (ATOI) has a huge impact in the value of defensemen. Because they play the most minutes, they are the leaders in this category league-wide. The impact is so big that without ATOI, the top roto defenseman last year (Erik Karlsson) was not among the top-30 skaters. With ATOI, all of Karlsson, Shea Weber, and Duncan Keith were among the top-30 skaters, and there were eight defensemen in the top-50.
- There were two defensemen (Karlsson, Keith) who broke 60 points last year, and there were 47 forwards who broke 60 points last year. So there are two ways to look at this: either avoid defensemen early because they don’t produce points, or draft elite defensemen early because the value they bring is considerably higher than the rest of the pack.
It’s a complicated matter, but here’s how to value defensemen in fantasy hockey.
League Settings
As I mentioned, ATOI has a big impact on the value of defensemen in leagues. While it only marginally separates the defensemen themselves, it boosts the value of defensemen relative to forwards. That’s important to keep in mind. There are two other categories that are important as well:
- Short-handed points: There are leagues that count short-handed points as a category. Think about this, though: there was only one defenseman in the top-30 of NHL point scorers (Karlsson), yet three defensemen in the top-30 for short-handed scorers. This is because A) a short-handed situation involves fewer forwards, not fewer defensemen, and B) teams rotate defensemen far less often on the penalty kill. This led to 24 of the top 30 leaders in short-handed ice time being defensemen. More ice time to accumulate points, and a larger likelihood of a defenseman getting an assist. This gives d-men added value.
- Blocked shots: The nature of the defensive position means more blocked shots and it’s way out of whack: 119 of the top 120 shot-blockers last year were defensemen. That’s a crazy amount. Of course, teams that gave up a lot of shots were at the top: Philadelphia, Calgary, Montreal, Washington, and Toronto were all represented in the top-10. When looking for elite shot-blocking defensemen, look for minute-eating defensemen on bad teams. The plus/minus might take a hit, but roto leagues are a balancing act.
League settings have a huge impact on defensemen, and their value is boosted with the introduction of ATOI, SHP, and BKS. Look for those three before the draft when figuring out which d-men to take.
The Middle
No, I don’t want to talk about the Jimmy Eat World song, but now it’s stuck in your head. I want to talk about the fact that a lot of defensemen are fairly middling in fantasy hockey.
The top 10 forwards last year had, at least, 100-percent more value than the top-85 forwards. That means the top forward on a given team in a 12-team league had roughly 100-percent more value than the sixth or seventh forward. And those sixth or seventh forwards had roughly 100-percent more value than the bench forwards. Those gaps are huge, and that’s why it’s important to get elite forward talent on a team.
Defensemen, however, were a much different story. After Erik Karlsson and Duncan Keith last year, the next 15 defensemen were separated by no more than a 50-percent value change. The next 30 defensemen after that were separated by a 100-percent value change. That means after the top defensemen are gone – Subban and Karlsson in my opinion – there’s a glut of defensemen that will produce very similarly. There’s no need to chase Alex Pietrangelo or Duncan Keith when it’s possible to take Victor Hedman or Kevin Shattenkirk a couple rounds later. There’s also no need to chase Tyson Barrie or John Carlson when Alex Goligoski or Christian Ehrhoff will be available dozens of picks afterwards.
Finally, when getting later in the draft – as in approaching double-digit rounds – it’s better to take a chance on Brayden Schenn than Johnny Boychuk because the upside is much, much higher. Some forwards that are undervalued in drafts have a chance at a Joe Pavelski-esque breakout season; there are very few (if any) defensemen that have a shot at a P.K. Subban-esque breakout season. The cost, then, of chasing lower-tier defensemen is much too high.
Patience
Guns ‘N’ Roses said it best, after all.
I can say from experience – having done two money drafts already – that waiting on defensemen is not a bad idea. Naturally, if Karlsson is there at the end of the first round or early in the second round, that’s fine. If P.K. Subban is there late in the second or early in the third, that’s fine too. But for the most part, chasing defensemen will come at the cost of forwards who can have a much more significant impact on a fantasy team.
Remember to check the settings because that can change the equation, but fantasy owners who draft Lubomir Visnovsky or Brent Seabrook ahead of Mats Zuccarello or Evander Kane are in a race for fifth place.
*Thanks to ESPN, Yahoo, and Hockey Reference for their resources
