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Fantasy Football Week 4 Worksheet

Rich Hribar breaks down every game in the NFL to find the best fantasy football assets heading into week 4.

Andrew Luck

Believe it nor not, but we’re actually almost a quarter of the way through the season already. Week 4 is about to kick off and with it comes the fist wave of bye weeks. Hopefully you’re gunning for a 4-0 start as we run through the week bullet point style.

Giants @ Redskins
3.5 Spread -3.5
20.8 Team O/U 24.3
65.3 Plays/Gm 73.3
62.0 Plays/Gm All. 57.3
46.4% Rush % 42.8%
53.6% Pass % 57.2%
44.6% Opp. Rush % 40.7%
55.4% Opp Pass % 59.3%

 

  • Eli Manning has thrown multiple touchdowns only once in 19 games versus Washington.
  • The Giants have turned the ball over on offense at least once in 19 consecutive games.
  • Victor Cruz has at least seven receptions and 80 receiving yards in his last three games versus Washington.
  • Rashad Jennings‘ 34 rushing attempts last week were the most by a running back of age 29 or older in a game since Shaun Alexander‘s 40 attempts in week 12 of 2006 and the last back of the same age or order to have 30 carries in a game was Jamal Lewis in 2009.
  • Washington is allowing 2.8 yards per carry, best in the NFL and have yet to allow a rushing touchdown.
  • In Kirk Cousins‘ five career starts, Pierre Garcon averages 8.2 receptions for 106.4 yards and 22.4 PPR points per game.
  • 31 of Cousin’s 81 pass attempts have been 10 yards or more downfield (38.2 percent). 30 of Robert Griffin‘s 40 attempts prior to injury were inside of 10 yards.
  • Alfred Morris hasn’t topped 100 yards rushing in 10 consecutive games played.
  • Morris leads the league in red zone rushing attempts at 15.

Trust: Pierre Garcon

Bust: Rashad Jennings, DeSean Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Larry Donnell

Reasonable Return: Alfred Morris, Pierre Garcon, Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, Eli Manning

 

Bills @ Texans
3.5 Spread -3.5
18.8 Team O/U 22.3
60.0 Plays/Gm 61.0
68.7 Plays/Gm All. 64.3
48.9% Rush % 57.4%
51.1% Pass % 42.6%
36.9% Opp. Rush % 42.5%
63.1% Opp Pass % 57.5%

 

  • Alfred Blue‘s 78 yards rushing last week were the most he’s rushed for since the opening week of his senior season at LSU (89 yards).
  • DeAndre Hopkins averages 11.9 yards per target, second behind only A.J. Green (12.9) of all receivers with 15 or more targets.
  • The Bills trailed for only nine offensive plays the first two weeks and Fred Jackson (59) and C.J. Spiller (54) played nearly identical snaps. This past Sunday they ran 62 plays while trailing and Jackson outsnapped Spiller 45 to 25.
  • E.J. Manuel is tied for third in the league with 12 completions of 20 yards or more.
  • C.J. Spiller has rushed for a touchdwon in only four of his past 32 games played.
  • 46 percent (55) of Fred Jackson’s 119 rushing yards this season have come on two carries. He averages 2.8 yards on the other 23 attempts.

Trust: Andre Johnson

Bust: Alfred Blue, Ryan Fitzpatrick, E.J. Manuel, Sammy Watkins

Reasonable Return: C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins, Garrett Graham

 

Panthers @ Ravens
3 Spread -3
18.8 Team O/U 21.8
61.7 Plays/Gm 71.3
63.3 Plays/Gm All. 58.7
36.2% Rush % 41.6%
63.8% Pass % 58.4%
36.3% Opp. Rush % 41.5%
63.7% Opp Pass % 58.5%

 

  • Steve Smith failed to reach 70 receiving yards in any game of 2013, he has reached 70 yards in every game this season with two games over 100 yards.
  • Steve Smith is being targeted once every 3.3 routes while Torrey Smith once every 7.3.
  • Torrey Smith has 85 receiving yards this season. He had 85 or more receiving yards in each of his first five games of 2013.
  • Carolina is allowing 6.3 rushing yards per attempt, last in the NFL while Baltimore averages 4.6 yards per rush, 9th best.
  • Ravens running backs standard points per touch through three weeks: Lorenzo Taliaferro .84, Justin Forsett .65, Bernard Pierce .33.
  • Baltimore has run the most plays in the red zone through three weeks at 47, but are 28th in red zone touchdown percentage at 35.7 percent.
  • Cam Newton has 26 total rushing yards through two games. He has 36 games in his career with more yardage on the ground.
  • Kelvin Benjamin‘s 39.3 standard points are the most by a rookie recevier through three games since Roy Williams (51.8) in 2004.
  • Over his past 10 games in this offense, Greg Olsen has 27.3 percent of the target share and averages 5.7 receptions for 60 yards with five touchdowns over that span.

Trust: Kelvin Benjamin

Bust: Joe Flacco, Bernard Pierce, DeAngelo Williams, Owen Daniels, Torrey Smith, Cam Newton

Reasonable Return: Greg Olsen, Steve Smith

 

Packers @ Bears
0 Spread 0
24.5 Team O/U 24.5
58.7 Plays/Gm 61.3
70.3 Plays/Gm All. 64.3
36.9% Rush % 30.4%
63.1% Pass % 69.6%
53.1% Opp. Rush % 44.6%
46.9% Opp Pass % 55.4%

 

  • Randall Cobb hasn’t hit 60 receiving yards in seven consecutive games played and is being targeted on only 19.4 percent of his routes.
  • Eddie Lacy has averaged less than four yards per carry in seven of his past 10 games played.
  • The Packers have faced three of the top four rush defenses in terms of yards per carry allowed. Not by much, but Eddie Lacy did average more yards per carry than those defenses allow in two of those three games.
  • The Bears are allowing 5.0 yards per carry, 26th in the league.
  • Aaron Rodgers has finished as a top 12 scoring quarterback in just six of his past 11 full games dating back to last year.
  • Chicago is allowing the most drives to reach the red zone per game at 5.0.
  • Matt Forte posted 66.7 PPR points versus the Packers in 2013.
  • Receiving touchdowns in the games Jay Cutler has played the majority of time since the start of last year: Brandon Marshall (14), Martellus Bennett (7), Alshon Jeffery (3).

Trust: Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Jordy Nelson, Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy

Bust: Randall Cobb

Reasonable Return: Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett

 

Lions @ Jets
0 Spread 0
22.5 Team O/U 22.5
69.0 Plays/Gm 69.3
57.0 Plays/Gm All. 60.0
41.6% Rush % 46.6%
58.4% Pass % 53.4%
39.8% Opp. Rush % 32.2%
60.2% Opp Pass % 67.8%

 

  • Since joining the Lions, Reggie Bush averages 20.7 PPR points per game at home and has six touchdowns. On the road he averages 12.5 points per game with two total scores.
  • Bush and Joique Bell have both been top 24 PPR backs only three times in a week since the start of last season.
  • Both of these defenses rank in the top three in rush yardage allowed, yards per offensive play and sack percentage.
  • The Lions haven’t allowed multiple touchdown passes in eight straight games dating back to last year.
  • Through three weeks, Chris Ivory is averaging .96 points per touch compared to Chris Johnson‘s .50.
  • The Jets haven’t had a 100-yard receiver since week three of last year, when both Stephen Hill and Santonio Holmes reached the mark.

Trust: Calvin Johnson, Matt Stafford

Bust: Geno Smith, Chris Johnson, Chris Ivory, Eric Decker

Reasonable Return: Reggie Bush, Golden Tate

 

Titans @ Colts
9 Spread -9
18.3 Team O/U 27.3
62.7 Plays/Gm 72.0
63.0 Plays/Gm All. 63.0
42.0% Rush % 37.5%
58.0% Pass % 62.5%
48.2% Opp. Rush % 42.3%
51.8% Opp Pass % 57.7%

 

  • Tennessee has allowed 336 rushing yards over the past two weeks and opposing backs to score four touchdowns.
  • Ahmad Bradshaw is averaging 18.8 PPR points per game, scoring double digits each week to start the season while averaging 6.0 yards per rushing attempt.
  • Andrew Luck‘s 77.9 fantasy points are the 11th most through three games all-time.
  • The Colts lead the NFL in offensive red zone attempts per game at 4.7.
  • Jake Locker‘s 18.7 fantasy points over the past two weeks are the fewest for any quarterback with two complete games played.
  • Only six of Bishop Sankey‘s 19 touches have come in the first half.
  • The Titans on average go 24.3 yards per point scored this year, the highest mark in the NFL.

Trust: Andrew Luck, Ahmad Bradshaw, Delanie Walker

Bust: Trent Richardson, Hakeem Nicks

Reasonable Return: Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, Jake Locker, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener

 

Dolphins @ Raiders
4 Spread 4.5
22.5 Team O/U 18.5
70.7 Plays/Gm 54.7
70.0 Plays/Gm All. 67.0
37.3% Rush % 32.9%
62.7% Pass % 67.1%
44.8% Opp. Rush % 55.7%
55.2% Opp Pass % 44.3%

 

  • Derek Carr has been sacked on only 1.8 percent of drop backs, second lowest mark in the league.
  • Lamar Miller averages 5.6 yards per touch, 12th best out of all running backs.
  • The Raiders are allowing 158.7 rushing yards per game, the third most in the league and teams are averaging 37.3 rushing attempts per game when facing Oakland.
  • Ryan Tannehill averages 10.0 fantasy points over his past five games, completing only 52.3 percent of his throws over that stretch.
  • Quarterbacks are averaging only 12.9 fantasy points per game against Oakland through three weeks.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Mike Wallace has already run 15 routes from the slot after running 18 all of last season.

Trust: Lamar Miller, Mike Wallace

Bust: Derek Carr, Charles Clay, James Jones

Reasonable Return: Ryan Tannehill, Darren McFadden

 

Buccaneeers @ Steelers
9 Spread -9
17.8 Team O/U 26.8
54.7 Plays/Gm 71.7
64.3 Plays/Gm All. 61.0
39.6% Rush % 42.9%
60.4% Pass % 57.1%
50.8% Opp. Rush % 41.5%
49.2% Opp Pass % 58.5%

 

  • Le’Veon Bell has seven runs of 10 or more yards on 53 carries. He had 13 such runs on 244 carries in 2013.
  • Antonio Brown is picking up right where he left off in 2013, averaging 23.5 PPR points per game. He’s caught 79 percent of his 28 targets with three touchdowns and has five or more receptions in 19 consecutive games (two behind the all-time record held by Jimmy Smith).
  • Tampa Bay is allowing a 76.9 completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks, worst in the league.
  • Tampa Bay has scored on just 18 percent (six of 34)of their offensive possessions, fewest in the NFL.
  • Teams have scored on 52 percent (15 of 29) of their possessions versus the Steelers, highest percentage in the league.

Trust: Le’veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Ben Roethlisberger, Vincent Jackson

Bust: Heath Miller, Bobby Rainey

Reasonable Return: Markus Wheaton, Doug Martin, Mike Evans

 

Jaguars @ Chargers
14 Spread -14
15.3 Team O/U 29.3
58.0 Plays/Gm 66.0
79.0 Plays/Gm All. 56.7
31.6% Rush % 49.5%
68.4% Pass % 50.5%
43.5% Opp. Rush % 35.9%
56.5% Opp Pass % 64.1%

 

  • Jacksonville quarterbacks have been sacked on 14.3 percent of their dropbacks, highest percentage in the NFL.
  • Allen Robinson leads the Jaguars in targets (19), but 12 have come in the second half of games.
  • Jacksonville is dead last in average time of possession per game at 24:23.
  • Teams are running the 2nd fewest plays per game (56.7) and average only 26:00 minutes of possession versus San Diego this season.
  • The Jaguars have allowed the most fantasy points to QB, RB, K, DST and the 8th most to WR in PPR leagues.
  • The Jaguars have allowed 22 receptions for 283 yards and four touchdowns to opposing tight ends through three weeks with over 90 yards each week.
  • Donald Brown had 36 touches in week three. His previous career high for touches in a game was 20 in 2010.
  • Philip Rivers has completed 65 percent or more of his passes in 13 of his past 19 games.
  • Jacksonville has run 9 total plays in the red zone this season, fewest in the league.

Trust: Donald Brown, Antonio Gates, Philip Rivers

Bust: Toby Gerhart, Malcom Floyd, Blake Bortles

Reasonable Return: Keenan Allen, Ladarius Green, Allen Robinson, Cecil Shorts

 

Falcons @ Vikings
-2.5 Spread 2.5
24.5 Team O/U 22
66.3 Plays/Gm 57.3
63.3 Plays/Gm All. 63.3
40.2% Rush % 42.4%
59.8% Pass % 57.6%
46.4% Opp. Rush % 47.9%
53.6% Opp Pass % 52.1%

 

  • Julio Jones has nine receptions of 20 or more yards through three weeks, most in the NFL.
  • Jones has 27.5 percent of the Falcons’ targets in his eight games played since the start of last season.
  • Matt Asiata is averging .27 PPR points per snap, 40th in the league.
  • Atlanta is allowing .47 PPR points per snap to opposing running backs.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has 50 or more receiving yards in each of the past two weeks, the first time he’s had back to back weeks reaching that threshold.

Trust: Julio Jones

Bust: Steven Jackson

Reasonable Return: Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Cordarrelle Patterson, Matt Asiata, Greg Jennings, Teddy Bridgewater

 

Eagles @ 49ers
5.5 Spread -5.5
22.5 Team O/U 28
71.7 Plays/Gm 60.3
73.0 Plays/Gm All. 58.7
40.0% Rush % 44.8%
60.0% Pass % 55.2%
41.6% Opp. Rush % 38.1%
58.4% Opp Pass % 61.9%

 

  • LeSean McCoy has 32 runs that have gone for one yard or fewer, most in the league.
  • San Francisco is allowing 30.0 PPR points per game to opposing receivers, second most in the league behind Tampa Bay.
  • Jeremy Maclin has been a top 18 receiver (PPR) in five of his past six games with Nick Foles as starter and is averaging 11.2 targets, 6.2 receptions, 98.2 yards and 20.7 points in those games to go along with five touchdowns.
  • San Francisco has been outscored 52-3 in the second half of games this season, scoring on just one of 13 second half possessions.
  • The Eagles have scored on 13 (seven touchdowns, six field goals) of their 22 second half possessions, most in the league.
  • The Eagles are allowing 21.3 fantasy points per game with eight touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
  • In the eight games since Michael Crabtree returned last season, Colin Kaepernick averages 231.8 passing yards, 37.5 rushing yards with 11 touchdown passes while completing 65.1 percent of his passes.
  • 49ers target percentage per route: Steve Johnson (26.8 percent), Michael Crabtree (21.6) and Anquan Boldin (18.9).
  • The 49ers have 36 penalties on the season. Frank Gore has 35 rushing attempts.

Trust: Colin Kaepernick, Michael Crabtree, Nick Foles, Jeremy Maclin

Bust: Zach Ertz, Vernon Davis, Frank Gore

Reasonable Return: LeSean McCoy, Jordan Matthews, Anquan Boldin

 

Saints @ Cowboys
-3 Spread 3
28 Team O/U 25
69.0 Plays/Gm 63.7
65.0 Plays/Gm All. 58.3
42.0% Rush % 49.7%
58.0% Pass % 50.3%
39.5% Opp. Rush % 41.7%
60.5% Opp Pass % 58.3%

 

  • DeMarco Murray has three consecutive 100-yard rushing games for the first time in his career.
  • Dez Bryant is being targeted on 32.1 percent of snaps in route, second only to Jordy Nelson (32.7).
  • Tony Romo‘s last 20 point fantasy game came in week nine of last season.
  • The Cowboys who have allowed 27 catches for 290 yards and four scores to tight ends to start the season.
  • When these two teams met last season, the Saints ran for 242 yards, their highest total since 1990 and had three different top 5 weekly fantasy backs.
  • Snaps per touch through three weeks: Brandin Cooks (7.6), Jimmy Graham (7.9), Marques Colston (21.7).
  • Snaps per opportunity: Graham (6.1) , Cooks (6.2), Colston (11.7).

Trust: Drew Brees, Pierre Thomas, Khiry Robinson, Jimmy Graham, Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray

Bust: Terrance Williams, Jason Witten

Reasonable Return: Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, Tony Romo

 

Patriots @ Chiefs
-3.5 Spread 3.5
24.3 Team O/U 20.8
70.0 Plays/Gm 67.3
62.7 Plays/Gm All. 62.7
42.4% Rush % 44.1%
57.6% Pass % 55.9%
42.0% Opp. Rush % 40.9%
58.0% Opp Pass % 59.1%

 

  • The Patriots have allowed the fewest fantasy points this season to QB and WR (PPR).
  • New England averages 4.3 yards per offensive play, last in the NFL.
  • Tom Brady‘s weekly finishes so far this year are 26, 28 and 25.
  • After playing 61 snaps week one, Shane Vereen has played 49 total the past two weeks.
  • In the three games Knile Davis has filled in for Jamaal Charles, he averages 97.3 rushing yards, a robust 29.6 touches and 21.4 points per game.
  • Dwayne Bowe has only 16.4 percent of the targets the past two weeks.
  • The Patriots have only allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends over their past 15 games.

TrustJulian Edelman

Bust: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Bowe, Travis Kelce

Reasonable Return: Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis

 

*Statistics provided by ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com. All Vegas Lines Provided by 5Dimes

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