Training camps have just begun across the NHL, and for looks into which battles will have a lot of fantasy hockey relevance, I wrote this piece on the most important battles to keep an eye on.
I figured now would be a good time to track the first set of ADP Movements. I have been doing Yahoo! mock drafts for nearly a month now, and while some people just try to ruin it by selecting random players at random times, there were four drafts that could be considered close to the real thing. These mock drafts were done between August 22nd and September 1st. Instead of rounds, I will just offer the overall pick, as these were both 10- and 12-team drafts.
The Risers
Jason Spezza (C – DAL) Average Mock Draft ADP: 55; Current ADP: 47.3
The general public is starting to get a lot more bullish on Jason Spezza. Rising by more than a half-round in a 12-team league is a lot of movement for an established player inside the top-75.
There’s nothing in particular that has come out with regards to positive news specific to Spezza that would change this, I would guess that most fantasy hockey owners would see Spezza available around the 50th pick, and figure that’s a good value.
It’s easy to overlook the fact that Spezza has been a point-per-game player for most of his career. He also has 155 points in his last 160 games overall. The most important thing for him is health, and with a 75 game season, he can get to 70 points playing a secondary role on this Dallas team.
Joe Thornton (C – SJS) Average Mock Draft ADP: 93; Current ADP: 69
This one is seemingly a more extreme case of Spezza: fantasy hockey owners were realizing just how crazy it was that Thornton was dropping close to the 100th overall pick, and are now targeting him a couple of rounds earlier.
Thornton’s movement is a bit confounding considering the news out of San Jose is that he’s been stripped of his captaincy, and that rumours are he might not play a top six role anymore. I find that last part a bit hard to swallow, as he’s been one of the NHL’s most consistent producers of the last 15 years.
All the same, Thornton is not producing in roto leagues like he used to. Last year was Thornton’s lowest goal total in any season he’s played 60 games, combined with his lowest shot total with the same parameter. Drafting him in the top-70 might be pushing his value, and it will be tough to exceed value at that point.
For those in points-only pools, Thornton continues to be a top-50 pick.
James Neal (RW, LW – NSH) Average Mock Draft ADP: 42; Current ADP: 37
James Neal could end up being one of the biggest bargains, or busts, of anyone picked in the top 50 players.
From 2011-2014, Neal had 178 points in 179 games for the Pittsburgh Penguins, with 72 of those points coming on the power play. Despite missing 33 games over that stretch, Neal was still just one of two players in the NHL with 85+ goals and 90+ assists (Phil Kessel was the other). Of course, a lot of that production came on the top power play unit in Pittsburgh, and at five on five time with Evgeni Malkin.
Some fantasy hockey owners are scared off Neal because he’s going from Pittsburgh to Nashville. Here’s the thing: even with a 30-percent regression across the board, in an 82-game season, Neal would still hit 28 goals, 29 assists, 225 shots on goal, 23 power play points, and 54 penalty minutes. That is really good across-the-board roto production. He was undervalued before, and may be slightly undervalued still.
The Fallers
Taylor Hall (C, LW – EDM) – Average Mock Draft ADP: 15; Current ADP: 23
It’s a very short list of players that have put up at least 130 points over the last two seasons: Sidney Crosby, Ryan Getzlaf, Alex Ovechkin, Claude Giroux, Phil Kessel, and Taylor Hall. Hall is the youngest on the list, coming into his Age 23 season.
Of course, there are different layers to this story. In a roto league that counts plus/minus, Hall wasn’t even a top-30 forward last year, even with the 80 points. In a points-only league, Hall would have been around a top-10 forward. League settings will ultimately determine Hall’s value.
In a roto league, Hall’s ADP is about where he should go. Jumping two rounds in value, within the top-50, in one year, is pushing the upper limits. At an ADP of 15, that’s drafting his ceiling, and it’s not good value. At least an ADP of 23 allows some wiggle room.
Victor Hedman (D – TBL) – Average Mock Draft ADP: 67; Current ADP: 79
Drop, drop, and keep dropping. Please.
Victor Hedman is one of five defensemen with 75 points, 240 shots on goal, and 80 PIMs over the last two seasons. He also has a similar point/game pace as Keith Yandle (lower by 0.01, or a point every 100 games), and a higher point/game pace than Ryan Suter (five points every 100 games).
It took a while, but the former second overall pick has come into his own. He can dominate shifts defensively and offensively, and may even get top unit power play time. Hedman has the very real possibility of managing 10 goals, 40 assists, 60 PIMs, and 180 shots. As long as his ADP keeps dropping, he becomes even more of a value than he was.
*Stats courtesy of Hockey Reference
