We got a bitter taste last week of just how difficult is can be to forecast kickers’ fantasy production.
Two of our Week 1 kickers — Josh Brown and Dan Bailey — fell victim to whacked-out game scripts that rendered their field goal-kicking services useless. Such is the life of a kicker: subject to every conceivable whim, reliant on so much just to post a decent stat line.
Our third kicker, Robbie Gould, notched eight points in the season opener, so we have that going for us.
I think you’ll notice one commonality among last week’s top fantasy kickers. They were all the beneficiaries of positive game scripts. Their teams moved the ball down the field with at least some regularity. Their defenses weren’t shredded and left for dead, forcing their offenses to push for touchdowns — not field goals — in the fourth quarter.
From here on out, rather than emphasizing opponents’ red zone stop rate — their propensity for forcing field goal attempts inside the 20-yard line — we’re going to focus on kickers on teams favored to win. We’ll also account for kickers on teams with quarterbacks who have favorable matchups.
Solid quarterback production, after all, is closely correlated to kicker fantasy production.
Here are three streaming kickers — owned in less than 50 percent of leagues — I’m targeting in Week 2.
Brandon McManus, DEN vs. Kansas City Chiefs
No team will have a more predictably positive game script than the Broncos this week. They get their crack at a decimated Kansas City defense that has been tormented for most of their past eight games. McManus, Denver’s fill-in kicker until Matt Prater returns from suspension, is available in 95 percent of leagues after his seven-point Week 1 performance.
Kansas City opponents last season scored touchdowns in 55 percent of red zone trips against the Chiefs — a percentage that’s neither good nor bad. McManus is an ultra-safe option and he’s available everywhere.
Ryan Succop (TEN) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Week 1’s No. 3 fantasy kicker is still unowned in 90 percent of leagues as his team prepares to play what could be the worst NFL defense in recent memory. The Titans can’t help but have a positive game flow in their matchup with Dallas this Sunday.
The only bad news: Dallas — as you may have suspected — stops no one in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on a remarkable 65 percent of opponent red zone opportunities. But again, we’re de-emphasizing red zone touchdown percentage and banking on the likelihood of Tennessee moving the ball up and down the gridiron. They’ll certainly do as much in this one.
Dan Carpenter (BUF) vs. Miami Dolphins
Vegas has pegged the Bills-Dolphins matchup as an old-fashioned pick ’em game. Probably that means that the game script should be fairly even in this one — a statement I say with much more confidence after Buffalo showed last week that they can be functional on offense.
Miami posted one of the NFL’s best red zone touchdown rates in 2013 (46 percent). Carpenter is only owned in 10 percent of leagues even after posting a solid 13 points in Buffalo’s Week 1 victory at Chicago. I see him as a premiere kicking option in Week 2.
