Fantasy Football: Updated Tight End Equity Scores

Fantasy football’s tight end market is decidedly less complicated than the markets for running backs and wide receivers.

To put it in class war terms: The tight end market is composed of the ultra wealthy, a small middle class, and a huge swath of lower-class options that might — just might — have a handful of elite options lying in wait.

The role of tight ends in real and fake football has changed rather dramatically over the past decade, even beyond fantasy’s top-end tight end producers. This has made tight end a position primed for streaming, though we’d do well to recognize the impact of exploitation stagnation and how it could affect the exploitation of favorable matchups.

Tight ends in 2002 caught a grand total of 137 touchdowns, a number that jumped to 187 in 2007 and 202 in the 2012 season. The frequency of big plays from tight ends has also seen a marked upswing: There were 95 tight end receptions of more than 25 yards in 2002, and 186 such plays in 2012.

Every piece of evidence shows that there are more stats to enjoy as we evaluate tight end options headed into the 2014 season.

I’ve assigned two equity scores to each player (according to Fantasy Football Calculator average draft positions): the median score, indicating a very conservative projection, and the high score, reflecting a guy’s top-end prospects. Any tight end outside the top-10 with a high score around zero should be avoided.

I used the RotoViz similarity score app as a baseline for every median and high projection, with tweaks where needed.

I hope this helps as another tool that could help zero in on the best draft day values while avoiding players with little to no equity.

• Considering price and potential output, I’m targeting Gronk every time at or around his current early-to-mid-third-round average draft position. Gronkowski since 2011 has averaged an amazing .59 fantasy points per pass route (FPPRR), meaning he’d have to run just 400 routes to finish as a top-3 tight end. I say that because injury always lurks with Gronk, and thankfully for us, some of that risk is priced into this ADP.

• I think the yawning gap between Davis’ median and high equity scores reflect his fantasy prospects with and without Michael Crabtree in the lineup. His splits with Crabtree are rather hideous. I wouldn’t think of drafting Davis unless he fell to the ninth or tenth round. He’s going in the middle of the fifth today.

• Remember that new Ravens offensive boss Gary Kubiak is the tight end whisperer, and that Pitta was one of the first players he mentioned upon being hired by Baltimore. Owen Daniels, the team’s No. 2 tight end, reportedly looks old and slow in training camp, perhaps easing worries that the veteran of Kubiak’s system would vulture Pitta’s production in 2014. Pitta’s use in the Ravens’ first preseason tilt was encouraging. I see Pitta as a very safe play with top-4 upside.

• Ertz, one of fantasy’s most efficient players in 2013, is expected to be Philadelphia’s primary red zone target in 2014. I think that’s what we see in his high score that would put him at TE6. Philadelphia beat writers fully expect Ertz to be utilized as a giant slot receiver in 2014. Ertz caught 20 passes for 178 yards and two touchdowns from the slot in 2013, and in a recent interview, he trumpeted the advantages he’ll have as the slot guy in Kelly’s offense. He can still be had at the start of the 10th round.

• I’ve had a change of degenerate mind when it comes to Green’s re-draft prospects, as San Deigo coaches and beat writers have not only talked up Green’s physical prowess — that much goes without saying — but his understanding of the offense and a likely increase in usage. RotoViz writer Davis Mattek makes a convincing case for Green as a league-winning selection in the 11th round of drafts. It makes sense considering Green’s downright Gronkian .59 FPPRR in limited use last year.

• I should clarify why I’ve listed Eifert as a target here: The size-speed freak is going in the 13th round of drafts. None of his upside has been baked into his ADP, and I love that. Some in the Bengals organization were surprised Eifert didn’t pull down 60 receptions as a rookie. Eifert, so far in training camp, has been destroying Cincy’s first-team defense, taking full advantage of his opportunity while Jermaine Gresham is sidelined with various ailments. From Cincy Jungle: “At 6’6″, 251 pounds with a 4.68 40-yard dash, Eifert has the potential to be a terror running down the seam, and that’s exactly what he’s been doing in Bengals camp thus far. He’s repeatedly burned defenders for huge gains just by simply running straight down the field and using his 76 7/8-inch wingspan to haul in passes.” If Eifert flames out or falls into a hideous timeshare with Gresham, you can bail with no damage done.

• I’ve listed some other tight ends here who are being drafted in particularly deep leagues. Recall that Fleener, despite being a very useful streamer in 2013, thrived on volume. With Dwayne Allen back in the lineup, that volume simply won’t be there. Fleener’s median prospects tell me everything I need to know.

• Cook in 2013, on a per-target basis, was just as efficient as Jordan Reed, Charles Clay, and Tony Gonzalez. With 100 targets, I believe Cook can achieve that high equity score. The best part? He’s free.

• Bill O’Brien has a solid history with tight ends, and though Graham isn’t the metrics freak that No. 2 tight end Ryan Griffin is, Graham has the first crack as Houston’s No. 1 tight end. Delanie Walker saw 6.6 targets per game last year with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center in Tennessee. That’s a 100-target pace that Graham won’t likely achieve in the Texans’ moribund offense, but it’s good to know Fitzmagic has a history of peppering his tight ends with targets.

C.D. Carter Fantasy Football Analyst

C.D. Carter is a reporter, author of zombie stories, writer for The Fake Football and XN Sports. Fantasy Sports Writers Association member. His work  has been featured in the New York Times.

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