This is Part 2 in a series of fantasy hockey posts I wanted to write because fantasy players, in any sport, are always looking for the next breakout player. It’s not necessarily a rookie like Nathan MacKinnon where people are looking for a top player in the fantasy game. It’s looking for guys that have established track records and just have that one career season. That one season where a player who has typically been solid just comes out of nowhere to have that one special season:
- James Neal absolutely exploded in 2011-2012. After averaging 0.312 goals/game in his first 234 games of his career, Neal jumped to an even 0.5 goals in his first full season with Pittsburgh.
- In the shortened 2013 season, Eric Staal went over a point per game for the first time since 2005-2006, had his only plus-season since 2010, and averaged over a penalty minute per game for the only time in his career.
- Last year, Joe Pavelski surpassed previous career-highs in goals (31 previously, scored 41), points (66 previously, 79 last year), and had his highest penalty minute total since 2008-2009.
These are three guys who had varying levels of success previously in their careers, and all broke out in a single season, providing immense draft day value.
A week ago, I looked at how chasing plus/minus when trying to predict a breakout season is pretty much futile. Today, the effect of shots on goal.
Reminder, this is the breakdown of top-10 fantasy seasons from last year, excluding Corey Perry and Alex Ovechkin:
Pay close attention to that yellow segment. You’ll notice that for most of these top-10 fantasy seasons, the value of the shot on goal itself is worth more than power play points, and more than plus/minus and penalty minutes combined. There’s a reason for this.
Here are the total number of players that, in each of the last three campaigns (minimum of three-quarters of the season played), have had either A) 3.17 shots on goal per game (260 shots in an 82-game schedule), or B) a plus/minus rating of plus-16 in the 82-game seasons, or plus-10 in the 48-game season.
For the record, the plus-minus ratings of plus-16 and plus-10 were decided because it’s the median between the elite and zero. Even Claude Giroux, the lowest plus/minus contribution in that chart, was a plus-7, so some positive plus/minus should be looked for. For shots, it’s the mean of the shots on goal for the elite fantasy performers from last season.
| 3.17 shots/game | Plus-16 (82 gms) or Plus-10 (48 gms) | |
| 2011-2012 | 24 | 50 |
| 2012-2013 | 22 | 55 |
| 2013-2014 | 25 | 55 |
The math behind this is simple: there is one guy getting a shot on goal when a shot on goal is registered. When there is an even-strength goal, or a short-handed goal, everyone on the ice gets a plus or a minus. There is just a much wider distribution of plus/minus.
This is why shots on goal are such an important part of fantasy hockey roto value. There are just fewer guys who post very good shot totals than guys who post very good plus/minus ratings. It’s a matter of scarcity.
There are caveats to this, though.
Caveat #1 – Shots on goal lead to goals and assists but beware of ascensions/declines
The median team in the 2013-2014 season averaged 30.04 shots per game (via SportingCharts). Last year, that number of shots per team per game was 29.14. The season before that, the number was 29.75. While the difference of 0.9 shots per team per game might not seem like a lot, that’s 2214 shots added or subtracted, and that’s about 177 goals at 8-percent shooting at all strengths. That’s a lot of production that comes and goes.
Of course, this is even more varied at the team level. The Penguins led the NHL with 33.3 shots on goal per game in 2011-2012; they were 16th last year at 29.9. The turnover rate in the top-10 over the last three seasons is about 4-5 teams. Everything from personnel changes, to coaching changes, to flat out luck plays a role in all this.
Secondly, guys just decline:
- Eric Staal, for example, has declined in shots/game totals every year since 2008-2009. That season, he was at 4.54 shots/game. Since then, his rate has deteriorated every campaign to 2.94 this past year.
- Daniel Sedin declined from 3.57 shots per game in 2009-2010 to 2.94 in 2012-2013. Then he jumped back up to 3.07 last year.
The shots rates can improve because of age, too, like Tyler Seguin and Matt Duchene. Then sometimes there’s just no rhyme or reason for it other than maybe coaching changes, like throughout Alex Ovechkin’s career.
Caveat #2 – Shots lead to goals and assists, but are at the mercy of shot percentages and regression
It’s already been shown by Eric Tulsky, formerly of Broad Street Hockey, that second assists are not a repeatable skill. It might seem counter-intuitive (hey, what about those breakout passes?) but arguing against the math is a bad idea. Players with a high second-assist rate, which may or may not have started with a shot on goal, regress. So guys like Matt Niskanen, Jamie Benn, and Taylor Hall may have trouble repeating their assist rate from last year without an intervening factor this year, like additional shots on goal from themselves or an increased shooting percentage from their line mates.
Finally, the shooting percentages dictate production, not necessarily the shots on goal themselves. Joe Pavelski was a top-10 fantasy player last year despite the fact that he has his second-lowest shot rate since the start of the 2008 season. Why? He was a career 10-percent shooter who shot 18.2-percent last year. If he has hopes of getting back to 41 goals again, he’ll probably have to take at least an additional 160 shots this year. This is extremely unlikely.
In all, shots are a very important component of fantasy hockey value. While accurate repeatability isn’t really possible, it is possible to have a very good idea of the range of shots where a player will land. Again, though, like Pavelski and Ryan Getzlaf last year, shooting percentages are as, if not more, important than the number of shots in and of themselves.
