Now that the All-Star break is over, the next mark on the calendar is the trade deadline. Whether it be MLB’s trade deadline or your fantasy baseball trade deadline, it is getting close. Be sure to keep an eye out for some good values to trade for, or trade away before it gets too late.
Buying high and selling low are two things you want to avoid, even if you are in dire need. Be sure to check this week’s posts as well.
Each week, XN Sports will have a Buys and Sells column, describing a few players to go after, or to get rid of. We all know to buy low and sell high, but what players should we trade, or who should we go after?
This week’s edition of Buys and Sells details one player, but one guy who could pay dividends for the rest of this season.
Buy Low
Yoenis Cespedes, Boston Red Sox
By now, you’ve heard about the trade. Read all about it here. The Red Sox traded Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes to the Athletics for Cuban sensation Yoenis Cespedes. Did the Red Sox buy low? Trading one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game does not seem like it, but Lester will be a free agent at the end of the season. Could he re-sign with the A’s? Possibly, but he will command a lot of money. But Cespedes looks to be in Boston for the foreseeable future, and at least next season. Why buy him now, for this season?
So far this year, Cespedes is hitting .256 with 17 home runs, 67 runs batted in, has scored 62 runs and has stolen three bases. He is having a good year so far, so how can we buy low? In Boston, and in the AL East as a whole, the stadiums are among the smallest in the Major Leagues. Cespedes is a right-handed hitter and Fenway Park has the green monster 310 feet away from home plate, the Yankees have a short porch in left-field, and Rogers Centre has the third-most home runs hit per game. Will this help Cespedes? Logic says of course, but what do the numbers say?
Cespedes has only one home run under 350 feet this season, and that came in…Yankee Stadium on June 4. He also has four doubles that would have been home runs in Fenway or Yankee Stadium.
In addition, Cespedes has the highest fly-ball rate in his career at over 50 percent, but his lowest home run to fly ball ratio. That number will surely go up in Fenway and the AL East. But, that is just home runs, in fantasy baseball you need a higher average than .256 to buy low on a guy, right?
Think about the green monster. The 37-foot wall is 310 feet from home plate, and you cannot get out if you hit the ball off the wall. Surely, Cespedes will have his fair share of balls off the wall for a double, or even a long single. But how will this improve his batting average?
This incredible chart from Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs shows how many outs Cespedes has in his career so far to left field, balls that would have hit the monster for a hit. There have been six balls so far this year that Cespedes has hit for outs over, which would have been off the monster. Now six does not seem like many, but add six hits to Cespedes’ season, and he is hitting .270 on the season with a higher slugging percentage and more runs batted in. The trade to Boston could have been the best thing for him as a player, because outs will become doubles, and some doubles will become home runs in some of the AL East stadiums.
Add Cespedes now, and expect a few short home runs, and a few fly balls that will result in doubles, in addition to his already ridiculous power and ability to hit no-doubters at any time.
Statistics from ESPN.com, Hittrackeronline.com, Baseball-Reference.com, and Fangraphs.com
