With a few more 2-QB mock drafts out of the way it was time to update the 2-QB ADP data machine (or use the magical ADP services of Étienne Groulx). The first option sounds more whimsical, while the latter more practical. Since Mr. Groulx knows what’s he’s doing I took him up on his gracious ADP services as always.
The usual warning I give before you take a gander at the updated 2-QB ADP is the same: this 2-QB ADP data is still made up of a small sample size. This time around eleven 2-QB mock drafts helped shape the 2-QB ADP. (There are currently 12 mocks in the midst of being mocked, with a 13th live one recently completed, which should help boost the ADP). You can download the full 2-QB August ADP spreadsheet here: August 2014 2-QB ADP.
Last time around I gave my thoughts on a few different strategies you could use to attack your 2-QB draft. You can find that info in the last 2-QB ADP post.
With this updated 2-QB ADP I wanted to compare my most recent tiered quarterback rankings for 2-QB leagues and this current 2-QB ADP to see if we can find some values at the position. Let’s do this by tiers of twelve, based on the ADP, rather than my rankings…
[table id=156 /]
If we don’t focus on the numbers in the first tier, both the ADP and my ranks somewhat align. Except Tom Brady comes at QB10 in the ADP (I have him at QB13), and I have Jay Cutler in my top-12 at QB8 (QB14 ADP).
That’s a fairly sizable gap when it comes to Cutler. The reason why I’m high on Cutler again this year is Marc Trestman’s impact. We saw what it did last year for Cutler and the rest of the top offensive fantasy players in Chicago.
If you combine the numbers of Cutler and Josh McCown you get the following stat line:
373 of 579, 64.4 completion percentage, 4,450 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 13 INTs.
Here’s what the stat line looks like when you break it down:
Seventh-most pass completions in the league
Tenth-most pass attempts in the league
Eighth-highest completion percentage (minimum 220 pass attempts)
Sixth-most passing yards
Tie with Philip Rivers for the fourth-most passing TDs in the league
And, as has been mentioned numerous times, Cutler and McCown would have combined for the third most fantasy points scored in standard leagues last season.
They also combined for eight top-12 fantasy quarterback performances, which would have been the fifth-most last year.
With Cutler playing in Trestman’s offense for a second straight year, and surrounded by the same offensive weapons as before (Forte, Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett) is it hard to envision him finishing in the QB1 tier?
If you feel the same way and you look at his ADP, which is outside of the QB1 tier, it’s an opportunity to acquire a QB1 talent at a QB2 price. If you’re a 2-QBer who prefers to have two elite signal callers manning your 2-QB squad then Cutler provides you with a chance to achieve your mission, but without having to pay the price normally associated with QB1s in 2-QB drafts.
What are the biggest differences between my rankings and the ADP for the second tier of quarterbacks?
Probably that I have Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, and Jake Locker ranked in this tier, while over on the ADP side of things they have Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater, and Sam Bradford. If you’ve read my rankings explanation you’ll know that each of those three are in my QB2 tier. It’s just that my QB2 tier goes much deeper.
The Hoyer/Manziel ranking for me is just a way to hedge my bet between the two. Locker and Fitzpatrick though are two different stories.
I have Locker ranked as QB20 and his ADP is at QB28. As for Fitzpatrick, he comes in at QB22 in my ranks, but has an ADP of QB32.
What gives with the current and former Titans signal callers?
Just like Cutler and McCown in Chicago, the Tennessee duo last season combined to make some fantasy magic happen. Just on a smaller scale.
On a week-to-week basis, they combined for seven top-12 fantasy QB finishes. They also each bring something to the fantasy table that can’t be underestimated: their sneaky rushing abilities. Combined, they ran for 380 rushing yards and five touchdowns last season.
Locker scored 27.5 rushing fantasy points. Divided by seven games, that equals 3.9 rushing FPs/game. In week 10 he rushed for 18 yards, but didn’t finish the game.
Fitzpatrick (if you don’t count Week 4) scored 40.7 rushing fantasy points. Divided by ten games, that equals 4.07 rushing FPs/game. In three of those games he combined for a measly three rushing yards, so the total could have been even higher.
Their combined 380 rushing yards would have been the seventh-highest total in the league last season. Only Cam Newton and Geno Smith (six rushing touchdowns each) scored more than the combined five of Locker and Fitzpatrick.
Newton’s rushing fantasy points/game was 5.9, and he’s being drafted as the QB7 in the second round. Locker and Fitzpatrick are both routinely being drafted in the tenth round or later of 2-QB drafts.
That’s not to say Locker/Fitzpatrick = Newton, but if you’re looking for a cost-effective way to score fantasy points at the quarterback position their ADPs could provide you with such production, but at a much cheaper cost than Newton.
Of course, Locker could miss a majority of the season again and Fitzpatrick could wind up being benched for Rich Hribar favorites Tom Savage or Case Keenum. I think their 2-QB ADPs reflect that though, and just because I have each ranked higher than their ADPs doesn’t mean I have to draft them that high either.
The QB3 tier is made up of the leftovers at the position, with the biggest difference being Geno Smith (ADP-QB36/My Rank-QB25). There’s been a lot of positive words spilled on Smith this offseason from some in the fantasy community. If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic on Smith, this breakdown of his 2014 fantasy potential and value by our very own CD Carter makes a compelling case for Smith.
The difference in ADP and my ranks for Smith I believe has to do with earlier mocks skewing the data. Michael Vick was once seen as a possible starter for the Jets at QB, and 2-QB drafts treated him as such, taking the now Jets backup over the current starter. Smith tends to go earlier now in 2-QB drafts (was QB26 in a recent live 2-QB mock), which is something to keep note of.
One thing we know about 2-QB fantasy drafts is that there is no one set strategy. There are a number of different ways to draft in 2-QB leagues, and by the studying the 2-QB ADP data you get a sense of how such drafts are unfolding this year.
What we also know is that rankings are merely personal preference. One thing I hope you come away with from this exercise is that you jot down your own quarterback rankings and compare them to the 2-QB ADP.
Which quarterback(s) are you high on? Why does the ADP list a signal caller so high, yet you have him ranked so low? Challenge your rankings and your thought process to see where you can take advantage of the 2-QB ADP. If you have an understanding of when quarterbacks go off the board in 2-QB drafts you can use that information to help craft part of your 2-QB draft strategy.
*Stats used in this article from Pro-Football-Reference.com and FantasyData.com
