Daily Fantasy Baseball DFS Value Update For Draftstreet – July 9

When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.

First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.

Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.

With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.

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For those that have been regular readers of this column, or even passersby, you’ll know that full MLB slates can get up to 2500 words here and I finally figured maybe this isn’t the best way to inform the readers about the days’ MLB picks. Most people with families and 9-5 jobs probably don’t have time to read 2500 words every day.

I also wanted to place more emphasis on the players I thought were at the top of their position for a given day. Just simply listing the plays I like out of every game gives no weight to one player over the other.

Lastly, I wanted to place a bit more emphasis on large tournaments (or GPPs). While it’s true, a lot of luck needed to win a tournament with a 1000 people in it, there’s also some measure of skill by knowing which pitchers and which lineups to target.

From now on, this column will feature players/pitchers to target for both GPPs and cash games separately. Each will have their own segment with a bit of explanation at each position. The three options are given to reflect different price points and guys I particularly like will be italicized.

First Base – Depending on budget restraints, it’s hard to pass on Chris Davis at his price. That’ll be true of most days until he hits a hot streak. Freeman seems like a good lineup anchor tonight, but I really like LaRoche. He’s facing Bud Norris, who has been on a nice run, but whose streak has to run dry sometime soon.

Second Base – Daniel Murphy has a pretty high floor just because he doesn’t strike out a lot. I do like Dozier’s match-up tonight but hitting at SafeCo Field in Seattle is always a problem. Kipnis is getting a homer-prone pitcher in Yankee Stadium. At that price, even in a cash game, it’s hard to say no.

Shortstop – The bottom is falling out of Dallas Keuchel and that makes Elvis Andrus my favourite play today at shortstop (good price, too). With Peralta and Hardy, I’m just looking at possibly getting a home run from either of them. Realistically, I’ll have a lot of exposure to Andrus tonight.

Third Base – Like Andrus, Beltre makes a really good start against the lefty Keuchel tonight. For a punt play, I don’t mind Asche against a somewhat-struggling Kyle Lohse. I’m at the extremes for third base tonight; if I don’t take Beltre, I’m probably going to punt third.

Catcher – I like Perez’s price a lot tonight but really, any of the three options should be solid tonight. I worry about Vogt in San Francisco, so avoiding him is fine. Ramos is a good match-up but he’s consistently hitting eighth in the lineup and I like to avoid that whenever possible (though playing with a DH tonight will make it a bit easier to swallow).

Outfield 1 – McCutchen hasn’t been very productive in his career against Lance Lynn but he’s just killing righties in general this year. It seems as though he has a good floor. Like some of his teammates, Rios is nearly a must-start against a lefty pitcher. Brett Gardner has been excellent since April and his price continues to be very solid.

Outfield 2 – Both Heyward and Willingham have excellent match-ups tonight, though I worry about Willingham hitting in Seattle. Bryce Harper is kind of in the same boat as Chris Davis; it’s just a matter of time before his price skyrockets and he his basement price right now is tough to ignore.

Starting Pitcher – Yu Darvish and Chris Sale are priced well above everyone else. So this is a night where drafting the two of them and then adding a relief pitcher isn’t necessarily a bad idea. After those two, there’s not a lot to really get excited about. Hammel in San Francisco should be safe. Kyle Lohse has an excellent match-up against the Phillies but strikeouts are a concern. Roenis Elias has a good match-up against the Twins but I worry about the combination of Dozier/Willingham taking him deep.

Large Tournaments (GPPs) – Lineup Stack Targets

• Texas vs. Keuchel – As is obvious by my cash game targets, I love the top of the Rangers lineup tonight against Keuchel. I’m not chasing a lot of their players, but Andrus/Beltre/Rios should be in GPP lineups as a mini-stack. All three of those guys have been killers against lefties this year and none of them strike out very often.
• Cleveland vs. McCarthy – Cleveland is a team that can smash any right-hander. Getting a pitcher in the top-10 in home runs allowed per nine innings should only be good for them. Brantley, Chisenhall lead the way in must-haves, but guys like Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, and Nick Swisher aren’t bad bets to run into one either.
• St. Louis vs. Cumpton – Against just about any right-handed pitcher, doing a mini-stack with Adams/Carpenter isn’t a bad idea. The rest of the lineup is a mess, but those two guys are pretty good at the top for the Cardinals.
• Seattle vs. Gibson – Gibson was on a nice little run but he’s now allowed 14 earned runs in his last 12 innings pitched. Hitting at SafeCo isn’t always ideal, but there are some lefty bats in that lineup line Seager, Cano, and Saunders that I like a lot tonight, especially with Saunders hitting at the top of the lineup of late.

GPP Pitchers

• Alfredo Simon vs. Cubs – The biggest problem with Simon is that he’s not a big strikeout pitcher. If there is a team that can strike out a lot, though, it’s the Cubs. Also, in three starts against the Cubs this year, Simon has given up a total of three earned runs.
• Dallas Beeler vs. Reds – The prospect of the unknown might make Beeler worth the price tonight (under $11K). Without Joey Votto in the lineup (not that he was exceptional, anyway), there isn’t a lot to get through in this lineup. This is more of a money saver and a shot in the dark.
• All told, there aren’t many great GPP pitcher options tonight. Chasing guys like Simon or Elias is probably the best bet tonight and pray that lineups pay off.

Good luck with your DFS today!

Michael Clifford

Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions. Follow @SlimCliffy !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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