It could be argued, quite easily, that our ability to spot favorable weekly matchups is the most important aspect of streaming a position, whether it’s quarterback or tight end or defense.
Exploiting those matchups could very well be more important than the players we acquire through the draft and off our local waiver wires.
This would mean, of course, that finding ways to identify favorable and decidedly unfavorable matchups is the foundation of streaming success. You can spot these matchups by sifting through raw fantasy points allowed, schedule-adjusted points allowed, or Vegas lines that tell us who is favored.
Fellow XN Sports writer Rich Hribar has explored that third piece in depth, and that exploration could be the most important development in the short and storied history of streaming quarterbacks.
That brings us to the fantasy points per aimed throw (FPAT) metric, which I dabbled with in 2013. I’ve used FPAT to measure the Trestman Effect on Jay Cutler and the pocket quarterbacking of one Robert Griffin III. Hribar showed a few months back that Nick Foles is the One True God of FPAT, boasting an unholy per-aimed throw efficiency as the head of Chip Kelly’s offense in 2013.
There’s a lot more to examine using FPAT as we move into the heart of the NFL off-season, but I thought flipping the metric on its head might be a useful exercise.
I couldn’t wrangle the number of aimed throws each NFL defense faced last year, so this analysis is based instead on pass attempts. It’s less than ideal, but I think it could still serve an important function in finding favorable matchups.
Below are the 10 most generous FPAT defenses from the 2013 season — those that gave up the most production on a per-attempt basis. I think FPAT Against, as we might call it, could offer us a more accurate look at which secondaries are most exploitable — the primary goal for any committed quarterback streamer.
Focusing on FPAT Against could be useful in the following scenario: a defense is middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks after the first month of the season, but ranks among the most generous on a per-pass attempt basis. That defense has faced four relatively run-heavy teams over the first month, and now faces a middling signal caller with no running game who’s averaging around 40 throws a game.
Boom, as it goes.
| Team | Pass attempts against per game | Fantasy points per pass attempt allowed |
| Atlanta Falcons | 32.2 | .57 |
| Oakland Raiders | 34.3 | .55 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 40.5 | .53 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 34.4 | .52 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 38.9 | .52 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 34.2 | .52 |
| Green Bay Packers | 33.5 | .51 |
| Houston Texans | 30.2 | .50 |
| Washington | 32.1 | .50 |
| San Diego Chargers | 35.3 | .48 |
- Most of these teams sported 2013’s worst coverage units, so it’s hardly a shock that teams like Dallas, Minnesota, and Oakland were being tormented on a per-attempt basis. I think it’s interesting that the Falcons — fifth worst against quarterbacks in 2013 — gave up three fewer fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than the Vikings, but were the worst in FPAT Against. Perhaps Atlanta’s 2013 rookie cornerback duo of Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford will vastly improve in 2014. Maybe they won’t. Pro Football Focus rated just six pass defenses as worse than the Falcons’ 2013 unit. I think they’re worth targeting, and streamer delights like Josh McCown, Andy Dalton, and Teddy Bridgewater or Matt Cassel get early-season cracks at the Falcons secondary.
- No defense faced fewer pass attempts last season than the Houston Texans, as teams ground down leads in the second half and generally didn’t have to go nuclear to beat Case Keenum and company. If Houston can stay something close to competitive this season, and if the combo of Jadeveon Clowney and JJ Watt don’t make the secondary look much better than it really is, I think the Texans could become a screaming target for streaming purposes. Their FPAT was just .02 better than the Bucs, who were sixth worst against signal callers in 2013. Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, and EJ Manuel could benefit from early-season matchups against Houston.
- Only seven defensive units saw fewer pass attempts last season than the Packers. Probably that has something to do with Aaron Rodgers missing most of the season, forcing Green Bay to adopt the back-of-the-napkin offensive game plan with backups and backups to backups leading the charge. It’s reasonable to think that Green Bay, which gave up a healthy .51 FPAT, could become a prime target for those who stream quarterbacks. The Packers gave up the eighth most raw points and the 13th most schedule-adjusted points to signal callers a year ago. They could easily face an extra four pass attempts per game (on average) with the offensive band back together. Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill, and Jay Cutler — if he’s even considered a streaming option anymore — could all be early-season beneficiaries of Green Bay’s fifth worst FPAT.
- When adjusted for strength of schedule, Jacksonville was ninth worst against quarterbacks in 2013. In other words, they were better against passers than you might think. Their FPAT is what it is though, and they gave up the third-most raw fantasy points despite seeing a measly 34.4 pass attempts a game.
