An oft-repeated but sometimes understated and sarcastic term with regards to fantasy baseball prospects, and maybe just prospects in general, is “shiny new toy.” It’s in reference to the fact that fantasy baseball owners (myself included) get infatuated with the possibility of the unknown. Guys like Mike Trout, Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez, and more recently Gregory Polanco get the call to the MLB and it’s a frenzy.
No need to look further than recent trades made on CBS Sports. They have a feature where you can see what the pieces of a trade for a particular player have been in their leagues. Polanco (at time of writing) has nine MLB games under his belt and in public CBS leagues he has been traded straight up for:
- Adam Jones (BAL-OF)
- James Shields (KCR-SP)
These are some of the packages that have included Polanco:
- Polanco and George Springer for Freddie Freeman
- Polanco for Allen Craig and Chris Sale
- Polanco and Springer for MIKE TROUT
People (some, not all) go crazy for prospects. It’s a fact of fantasy baseball.
One prospect that had fantasy baseball owners all hot and bothered a year ago was Chicago Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler. Soler is another of a string of Cuban baseball players that have defected from their home country in hopes of signing an MLB contract. He did, and was rewarded with a nine-year deal worth $30 million from the Cubs at the age of 20.
Soler made his spring training debut in 2013. He didn’t fare particularly well – he hit .222 with a .389 slugging in a very brief 39 plate appearance showing – but it didn’t really deter his scouting report; anywhere from MLB.com to FanGraphs had Soler as a potential future star back before the 2013 season. There’s a reason: as J.D. Sussman noted in that FanGraphs article, the bat speed Soler possesses means he can generate a lot of power. There’s a bit more to the story, though.
Soler, because he was trying to get out of his home country and had to take up residence in Haiti, did not face any live pitching from the end of the 2010 baseball season until he was sent to Rookie ball by the Cubs after signing in June of 2012. For a young player – Soler was 18-years-old at the end of the 2010 season – missing a year and a half of essential development time will be a hindrance. He hit just .241 with a .717 OPS in Rookie ball before being sent to A-ball later in 2012. At A-ball, he cranked out a .910 OPS with three home runs in just 20 games. Soler missed all of 2011 and had 34 games of Rookie/A-Ball for the Cubs in 2012.
Knowing the time he missed, it’s no wonder Soler only hit .281 with a .810 OPS through the 2013 season at High-A. I say “only” because it’s not really a bad season, but considering the expectations on Soler, it was a bit of a let-down. The other part of the story of that 2013 season is that he suffered a stress fracture of his left tibia in June of 2013 and that limited him to just 55 games that year. This young, highly-touted prospect missed all of 2011, half of 2012, and half of 2013. That is a lot of time missed for any developing baseball player.
That time away from the diamond resulted in him being bumped down the prospect list from all of Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus between 2013 and 2014. Things haven’t been rosy this year, either, as Soler has already missed time twice because of injuries to his left hamstring and then his right. Again, one has to wonder how much all that missed development time has hurt not only his on-field game but his physical maturation as well.
For several reasons including the time missed, Soler has gone from pretty much a “can’t-miss” prospect – Keith Law of ESPN had him as a definite top-10 pick had he been available for the draft, for ESPN Insiders who want to read his blog – to almost an after-thought.
There’s a reason for the after-thought: Soler has seemingly been pushed out of the limelight by highly-touted Cubs prospects like Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Arismendy Alcantara. There is no mistake to be made here, though. Soler was highly sought for a reason; there is huge power and decent plate discipline here for the young outfielder. The development time missed is very unfortunate so maybe it takes him an extra year to really be ready for the Majors. When he is, it’ll be fun to watch.
Fantasy Outlook
It’s very doubtful that Soler makes an appearance for the Cubs before the September call-ups. He has (at time of writing) just seven games at Double-A this year because of those hamstring injuries. In those seven games, he does have seven doubles.
Those doubles are an indicator of the approach he has at the plate. He has the power to use all fields for extra-bases and can smash a meatball over the fence. Beyond the power, there is a bit of speed to his game as well, so in a full season double-digit steals is not out of the question.
Whenever Soler does get called up, be it September of 2014 or sometime in 2015, Soler will be fun to watch at the plate. In a full year, he has the ability to crank 20 home runs and steal 10 bags as a rookie. He’s not a true power/speed combo like B.J. Upton when he was actually good, but he has enough in his legs to separate himself from true power-hitters.
If he does get the call this year, I would expect a good bit of power with a passable roto average. There’s no way to really tell but he should be able to keep his average around .270 with his approach at the plate. He likely needs more time in the minor leagues so we probably won’t see him until 2015. Whenever he does get to the Cubs, it’ll be worth the wait.
