When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Toronto Blue Jays (Hutchison) at New York Yankees (Phelps)
In Hutchison’s last four road starts (28.2 innings), he’s allowed one earned run, struck out 20, and walked just four. His home/road splits are extremely dramatic for the year making him a decent third pitcher target for tonight. I do like the Toronto bats against Phelps a lot tonight, though, and with the price of pitching, it might not be a bad idea to get Bautista in lineups.
Drew Hutchison (SP) – $12,394
Jose Bautista (OF) – $9889
Colby Rasmus (OF) – $5129
Phelps is a complete pass tonight. Also, the Yankees bats are a toss-up. Either people believe in Hutchison tonight or they don’t. I think Hutchison does a good job of quieting down the Yankees bats so other than Brett Gardner, I’m staying away from them for the most part.
Brett Gardner (OF) – $5777
