When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
*NOTE: There is rain expected in four of the seven games tonight. The only ones that seem clean are Chicago and the domed stadiums in Seattle and Houston. Avoiding playing tonight altogether is probably the best option, but here are the picks anyway.
Chicago Cubs (Samardzija) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Volquez)
Samardzija was blown up a couple of starts ago but it remains his only start this season where he’s given up more than three earned runs. This isn’t an ideal match-up but he’s not a bad option today. The Cubs should be able to get their runs off of Volquez today, though, and Rizzo’s price has dropped considerably. He should be a top option at first base.
Anthony Rizzo (1B) – $6558
Luis Valbuena (3B) – $4889
Jeff Samardzija (SP) – $17,259
I’m not taking Volquez and I’m not chasing many Pirates hitters. McCutchen is on a tear right now so he’s acceptable. The one hitter I’d really looks at is Pedro Alvarez. He’s hot at the plate right now and that’s without hitting a home run in the last week.
Pedro Alvarez (3B) – $6001
