When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Oakland Athletics (Gray) at Baltimore Orioles (Gausman)
Sonny Gray is among the top tier of pitchers that don’t have very good match-ups today, like Chris Sale and Jon Lester. That said, I trust Gray the most given the match-up and price so I’ll probably use him in double-ups. The A’s have a decent match-up today as far as their lineup is concerned, though, I’ll probably have at least one in my lineups.
Brandon Moss (1B) – $8397
John Jaso (C) – $5556
Sonny Gray (SP) – $17,604
Gausman is a non-starter and I’ll tread pretty lightly around the Orioles lineup. I don’t like the match-up with Gray but there are reasonably cheap options that could do well today. I might be more tempted to use their guys in a GPP than a cash game, though.
Steve Pearce (1B) – $5074