When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Boston Red Sox (Lackey) at Cleveland Indians (Masterson)
Watch the weather in this one. There are thunderstorms coming in later in the game.
Cleveland has a lineup that can mash righties so even with how well John Lackey has pitched this year, I’ll avoid him for tonight. I’d rather pay a few hundred more for Alex Cobb. The Red Sox hitters are starting to get expensive though, so I’ll focus on their lefties.
David Ortiz (DH) – $7876
Grady Sizemore (OF) – $5629
Masterson has six strikeouts in his last three starts combined so even with his price, I think he’s avoidable tonight. As I mentioned, Cleveland has a lot of lefty hitters that can mash righties so there is value to be had on this team. I worry about Lackey shutting them down, though, so I’ll probably shy away from a stack.
Lonnie Chisenhall (3B) – $6721
Yan Gomes (C) – $4094
Michael Bourn (OF) – $4407