When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Cleveland Indians (Salazar) at Toronto Blue Jays (Happ)
Danny Salazar has essentially had one good start this year and it was in San Francisco in April. I’ll take a pass until he starts putting up consistently good results. Cleveland also doesn’t have many hitters that have been very good against lefties this year so even against J.A. Happ, I’ll tread lightly around their lineup tonight.
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS) – $6215
Happ is an intriguing start today because Cleveland is literally the worst-hitting team against lefty pitching so far this year. Seeing as the options aren’t plentiful, I’ll be tempted to use him tonight. Also, the lefties in the Jays lineup could have a good chance against Salazar tonight. At the least, I won’t be buying their most expensive players.
J.A. Happ (SP) – $13,202
Juan Francisco (3B) – $6222
Adam Lind (1B) – $5880
