I will mention that I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.
There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.
Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.
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Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftStreet values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.
Games are color-coded as follows:
Green means stack for GPPs. Yellow means targets for cash games. Red means value plays only.
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers
The Rangers, in a very emotional win with Martin St. Louis as the inspiration, stomped the Penguins 5-1 in Game 5. What should be worrisome for Pittsburgh about that is that the Rangers didn’t really dominate but their goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury looked shaky on a couple of goals. If he’s not on his game, it’s a pretty big problem for the Penguins.
What was also curious about Game 5 is that the Derek Stepan line was consistently matched against the top line of Pittsburgh, yet held the better of the possession advantage. That line was also responsible for two of the five goals the Ranger scored. If Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin can’t really create a mismatch for that line, then that is advantage New York. Granted, the depth forwards on Pittsburgh have been very good so far these playoffs, the depth forwards for the Rangers are generally better. If this game becomes a depth game, advantage Rangers.
The final note is that the Penguins, when they were desperate for goals in the third period, were putting Jussi Jokinen and James Neal on the top power play unit (replacing a defenseman). Meanwhile, Kris Letang was the only Pittsburgh defenseman to remain on the top unit for the entire game. He’s likely the best defensive value for the Penguins.
The last game kind of threw me off what to expect in this series. If the Rangers start getting on the right side of the puck luck – and score goals at a normal NHL rate – this is a problem for the Penguins. I’d rather just pick some decent value picks from either side. With the limited choices available, I suppose Henrik Lundqvist makes the best goalie to start tonight.
| Top RW Value | Top LW Value | Top C Value | Top D Value | Bargain Bin |
| Martin St. Louis(NYR)
$7826 |
Chris Kunitz(PIT)
$12,307 |
Derek Stepan(NYR)
$6736 |
Kris Letang(PIT)
$10,719 |
Brian Boyle(NYR)
$3976 |
Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks
Minnesota has been playing exactly like they need to play to win this series; in four games so far this series, the Blackhawks have not managed more than 22 shots on goal in any game and have averaged 20.75 shots on goal over those games. If the Blackhawks aren’t generating offense and imposing their game on the other team, it can be a lot of trouble.
The Blackhawks have been mixing and matching their lines over the last couple of games but quite obviously, it hasn’t gone as planned. The two teams are nearly even at 5-on-5 possession over the last two games (Minnesota had three more shots attempted in those two games, a negligible total). This worries me for DFS in this game. There’s really no telling what the lines will look like until warm-ups and by then, rosters will be locked. Even if we knew what they would be, they could be mixed and matched as they have been throughout this series. There’s really no point in stacking any Chicago skaters for this game.
The Mikko Koivu line has been at least an even possession line over their last two games and the line has combined for two of the six even strength goals the Wild have scored over the last two games. The nice thing is that they do not appear to have a direct line match-up, so they may be able to take advantage of the depth forwards of Chicago if ‘Hawks coach Joel Quenneville isn’t concerned about which line plays against which.
Because of the inability for the ‘Hawks to create sustained offense in any game they’ve played in this series, and as much as I want to, I will not be stacking Chicago tonight. I will be using skaters from the Koivu line and picking apart value plays from Chicago.
| Top RW Value | Top LW Value | Top C Value | Top D Value | Bargain Bin |
| Nino Niederreiter(MIN)
$7727 |
Bryan Bickell(CHI)
$9249 |
Mikko Koivu(MIN)
$8956 |
Niklas Hjalrmarsson(CHI)
$6204 |
Ben Smith(CHI)
$4869 |
Good luck!
