Daily Fantasy Hockey DFS Value Update – May 10

I will mention that I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

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Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftStreet values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Games are color-coded as follows:

Green means stack for GPPs. Yellow means targets for cash games. Red means value plays only.

Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins

At the risk of sounding old-timey, this is a must-win for both teams. Neither wants to have to win two games in a row. If that’s the case, this game should be much like every game in this series, a one-goal game (excluding empty-netters).

After there were 14 power plays between the two teams through Games 1 and 2, there were only five power plays given out between Games 3 and 4. One thing Boston learned when coming out of the first two games was that they probably wouldn’t beat Montreal if they kept averaging 4 or 5 power plays allowed every game. The lack of power plays depresses the value of some players from either team, notably defensemen like Dougie Hamilton and P.K. Subban.

The biggest value producers might come from Boston’s third line again. For those that didn’t see Game 4, Boston’s third line was matched by the defensive pairing of Mike Weaver and Douglas Murray. Murray is a god-awful hockey player and the line shredded that pairing almost every time they were on the ice. If Murray is dressed again, stack that third line without hesitation (we probably won’t know if he dresses until warm-ups).

I expect another close game but for the Bruins to come out on top. Tuukka Rask should be a fine play for a goalie today. I would probably shy away from the power plays of either team and look at the depth players for some value.

Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings

This series should be viewed much the same way as the Montreal/Boston series; each game has been a one-goal game (excluding empty-netters) and while the shots favor Anaheim, it’s not a significant difference for a seven-game series.

One thing that surprised me from Game 3 was that the Kopitar line could finally be matched against any line from Anaheim, and yet they did not excel. That line had six 5-on-5 shifts in the first period of Game 3, was matched against three different lines, and yet couldn’t find any holes in the Anaheim defense. If the Kopitar line can be shut down by any of the Anaheim’s lines, this is awful news for the Kings.

One note is that goaltender Frederik Andersen, who had taken over for Jonas Hiller earlier in Game 3, may be out for the game tonight with a “somewhere on the body” injury (I hate how non-specific injury reports are getting). While the morning skate will be a good indicator of who will start tonight, we may not get a real answer until the warm-ups tonight.

The Ducks skaters are a bit of walking wounded right now. Matt Beleskey missed most of the final 13 minutes of Game 3 with what is described as a “lower-body” injury. In his absence, it was Devante Smith-Pelly who took that premium position on Anaheim’s top line.

This should be another close, low-scoring game and I’m not sure which goaltender to lean towards (so I’ll take neither). I’m expect a bounce-back from Los Angeles’ top line so I might dabble with one or two of those guys for different types of lineups.

Good luck!

Michael Clifford

Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions. Follow @SlimCliffy !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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