When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with cash games in mind.
Philadelphia Phillies (Burnett) at Toronto Blue Jays (Dickey)
Just about every indicator Burnett has says he should start getting smacked around a bit. Going into the Rogers Centre to face a team that has scored 32 runs in their last five games might be a time to start. As always, hitters are very hit/miss going up against R.A. Dickey. I wouldn’t use a big chunk of my budget on Phillies hitters.
Carlos Ruiz (C) – $5423
Dickey has just seven earned runs in his last 18.1 innings pitched while his K:BB ratio has improved over his last few starts to go along with it. There are not many good pitching options today, I can’t fault people for taking Dickey.
Juan Francisco (3B) – $5301
Colby Rasmus (OF) – $6457
R.A. Dickey (SP) – $13,894
