When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Chicago White Sox (Rienzo) at Cleveland Indians (Kluber)
Rienzo does not get any consideration today and I worry about the hitters against Corey Kluber. The White Sox have already faced him once this year and were relatively shut down (7.1 innings, no walks, two earned runs). I’ll likely just avoid the Sox altogether today.
Marcus Semien (2B) – $4939
Kluber is an interesting name because he already has one good start against the Sox and he’s not very high-priced. I think I’d rather stay away from him considering the other options in his price range are as appealing or more so. I think the Indians knock around Rienzo but I’m not sure where the DFS points come from. This is a dartboard game for me.
Yan Gomes (C) – $4839
