Daily Fantasy Hockey DFS Value Update – May 3

Daily Fantasy Hockey DFS Value Update – May 3

Brad Marchand
Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Brad Marchand
Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily fantasy hockey lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

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Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftStreet values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Games are color-coded as follows:

Green means stack for GPPs. Yellow means targets for cash games. Red means value plays only.

Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins

We saw last game what the true disparity between the two teams in this series really is. The Canadiens needed a 48-save performance from Carey Price and an overtime power play goal to come through against the Bruins. Expecting that two games in a row is a little silly.

I do wonder whether Boston will dominate as much as they did in the last game in today’s game against the Habs. The possession rates through the year between the teams in their games were relatively similar, so I would hesitate before declaring what should have been a blowout win for the Bruins a sign of things to come.

In Game 1, Patrice Bergeron’s line was charged with playing against the top line of Montreal, and they did so very well. In fact, with David Desharnais on the ice, the Habs had just two shots on goal at five on five all game long, and 14 shots against. If the top line for Montreal doesn’t pick up their play – particularly Thomas Vanek, who was relegated to the fourth line for much of the game – this could be a good day for the Bergeron line.

While the Game 1 win for Montreal was nice, I don’t expect a repeat in Game 2. This Boston team is just too good. I wouldn’t hesitate to stack the Bergeron line in a GPP if I was playing such a game and I wouldn’t mind either defenseman, Hamilton or Chara, in my lineups either (preferably the former). I’m also going with Tuukka Rask in most lineups.

Top RW Value Top LW Value Top C Value Top D Value Bargain Bin
Reilly Smith (BOS)$8505 Brad Marchand(BOS)$8455 Patrice Bergeron (BOS)$11,355 Dougie Hamilton(BOS)$8710 Dale Weise(MON)$4140

Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks

The Ducks have been off for nearly a week now so they should be well rested for this one. Los Angeles, on the other hand, had a grueling seven-game series finish on Wednesday night so they will be considerably less rested for this game. Although as we saw last night in the Rangers game, maybe it doesn’t mean as much early on in the series.

Four out of the five games these two teams played against each other this year resulted in a one-goal game and none of them featured more than six goals. In fact, four out of the five games yielded four goals or less.

This seems like a toss-up to me tonight. The Kings are the superior team but lost four of five games to the Ducks this year. With Anaheim able to rest the small nicks and bumps on their team like Matt Beleskey (and resting Cam Fowler), this team is about as ready to go as ever. I do worry about Anaheim’s defense, though, without Stephane Robidas on the back end. They will be relying on some guys that aren’t very proven in the NHL and that can be a worry against a team like Los Angeles.

I think it’s a low-scoring game so I’m not looking for GPP targets in this one. Also, to me at least, this game is a bit of a coin flip so I will stay away from the goalies. I’ll just pick apart some nice value plays for my 50/50s or to round out GPP teams.

Top RW Value Top LW Value Top C Value Top D Value Bargain Bin
Tyler Toffoli(LAK)$7829 Matt Beleskey(ANA)$9060 Mike Richards(LAK)$6039 Jake Muzzin(LAK)$7678 Andrew Cogliano(ANA)$6677

Good luck!