When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Chicago White Sox (Danks) at Cleveland Indians (Salazar)
John Danks has pitched relatively well so far this year but his walk/strikeout rate is terrible so he’s not an ideal DFS candidate. The White Sox hitters, though, have already lit up Salazar once this year and their hitters are relatively cheap. That makes them a nice GPP target for a stack tonight. There are nice values here regardless.
Alexei Ramirez (SS) – $6652
Jose Abreu (1B) – $9166
Salazar had a very good outing his last time out facing San Francisco but I think I’d rather still just avoid him until he puts together more than one good start in a row. There are a couple of Cleveland hitters with excellent career numbers against Danks.
Nick Swisher (1B) – $5611
Ryan Raburn (OF) – $3369
