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Daily Fantasy Baseball DFS Value Update and Lineup – May 1

Michael Clifford breaks down every MLB game to find the best daily fantasy baseball value picks.

Chris Archer
Chris Archer

Apr 14, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Chris Archer (22) throws in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.

First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.

Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.

With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.

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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.

Because of all the postponed games yesterday, there are a lot of pitchers available today. Remember that stats for hitters only accumulate through the first game, not the second.

Tampa Bay Rays (Ramos, Archer) at Boston Red Sox (Peavy, Doubront)

Cesar Ramos has an exceptionally cheap price for today but it appears as though Chris Archer’s price has actually dropped over the last couple of games. Ramos isn’t much of an option but Archer certainly is. There are also a couple of Rays hitters that have excellent records against Jake Peavy and I’ll have one of them in most lineups.

Chris Archer (SP) – $12,661

Ben Zobrist (2B) – $6445

James Loney (1B) – $6015

Doubront is a no-go for me, but Jake Peavy is an interesting choice for Game 1. He’s pitched very well so far this year but I do wish his price was a bit cheaper. Peavy’s WHIP is pretty high so he’s bound to get smacked around again sooner rather than later. I’m not thrilled with the Sox hitters today as they are fairly expensive and Ramos has pitched reasonably well since becoming a starter.

Xander Bogaerts (SS) – $6297

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