Daily Fantasy Hockey DFS Value Update – April 30

I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily fantasy hockey lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

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Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftStreet values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Games are color-coded as follows:

Green means stack for GPPs. Yellow means targets for cash games. Red means value plays only.

Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers

The Flyers have certainly played their best hockey over the last couple of games of this entire series, so the balance of perceived momentum in the series would appear to have shifted. Of course, the big difference of the last three games is that the Flyers are 4-for-10 on the power play while the Rangers are 0-for-12. The special teams over the last three games alone could account for a full win, so if the Rangers shape up a bit in this regard, the game shouldn’t be that close.

At five on five so far this series, the Rangers have scored 13 goals while the Flyers have scored just five. The Rangers are also getting the possession numbers so again, it seems that as long as this game stays mostly even (or the Rangers can figure out how to kill a penalty) then it’s theirs to take.

The top line for the Flyers has started to pick their game up a bit and the biggest recipient of that should be Michael Raffl. As I said, though, this team is not generating much at five on five so the biggest beneficiary of improved play from Claude Giroux has been Wayne Simmonds on the power play; last night, Simmonds had three goals (two of those on the man advantage).

As much as the Flyers seem to be rolling, Henrik Lundqvist is generally lights out in Game 7 contests for his career (1.00 GAA in four such games). I would ride Lundqvist and dabble with some 50/50 options from the Rangers.

Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche

How this game will be won is up to the offensive players of the Avalanche: In the team’s three wins this series, they have scored 13 goals. In the team’s three losses this series, they have scored three goals.

The difference for Minnesota in this series has been the play of Darcy Kuemper. In the first game and a half, Ilya Bryzgalov had a deplorable save percentage of .822. Meanwhile, since Kuemper came in halfway through Game 2, he has posted a .934 save percentage. It’s amazing how many games a team can win when their goalie is giving up one fewer goal every 10 shots or so.

The Avalanche trio of Landeskog/Stastny/MacKinnon will have to carry this team but there’s no telling how they’ll perform. One game, these guys can’t be stopped. The next game, they’re ghosts. It’s not a match-up problem, either, as those that remember MacKinnon’s big game earlier in the series watched him burn past Mikko Koivu like a pylon. Also, the addition of Matt Duchene will only help at home as there are now two lines that can exploit the depth defensemen of the Wild.

This one is really a toss-up for me. The Wild should win because Colorado doesn’t have any defensemen left but the offense of Colorado is to be feared. If I was going to stack a line, it would be the Duchene/O’Reilly combination – the thought being maybe they get easier match-ups – but I’d rather just pick a few players from either side and avoid the goaltenders.

I will say for GPP goalies, I would go with Semyon Varlamov. If the Avalanche get the win tonight, it’ll be because he makes a lot of saves.

Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks

So it’s a tale of two halves. In the first half of the series so far, the Sharks shot 15-percent as a team and scored 17 goals in three games (all wins). In the second half of the series, the Sharks shot 4.2-percent as a team and scored four goals in three games (all losses). It’s not hard to figure out that unless the Sharks fill the net, they might be in trouble.

That is what should really worry San Jose so far. Sure, they lost three games in a row to be forced to play a Game 7, but those streaks happen. What’s worrisome for San Jose is that the Kings – the lowest-scoring of all the playoff teams in the regular season – have scored fewer than three goals just once in these six games. The Sharks’ success has come from ridiculously high shooting percentages in a short span of time. Relying on filling the net against the Kings is probably not the best plan of attack.

What’s interesting about this series from the standpoint of the Kings is that Anze Kopitar’s line has been dominated for the most part in the possession game, yet the secondary players have done very well. They have been matched against the Thornton line for the most part, so I would avoid the depth players from San Jose for tonight. I’d rather look at San Jose’s top line or Los Angeles’ players for my 50/50s.

I can’t stack either side in this game because I don’t have a real good feel for which team will win this one. I would probably avoid the goaltenders, too. If I were to stack a line tonight, it would be the Carter/Pearson/Toffoli line (though they switch up frequently).

Note that Sharks (and Olympic) defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic is a game-time decision and is not to be counted on.

Good luck!

Michael Clifford

Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions. Follow @SlimCliffy !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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