Daily Fantasy Hockey DFS Value Update – April 28

I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily fantasy hockey lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

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Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftStreet values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Games are color-coded as follows:

Green means stack for GPPs. Yellow means targets for cash games. Red means value plays only.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets

This is the first of two potential elimination games in this series. There are some interesting patterns that have popped up so far this series:

• Each of the last three games, the winning team has outshot the opponent by at least 20 shots in each game.
• Each team has given the other at least 20 power play opportunities so far this series; 22 for Columbus and 25 for Pittsburgh. The penalty kills are just a combined 76.6 percent over the five games, though.
• There has been no fewer than 61 total shots in any game, so all the games have been fairly high-event games.

One big development for the Penguins has been the fact that Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby played together for most of the last game. They were joined by Chris Kunitz on the top line. The second line saw Jussi Jokinen and James Neal bring Joe Vitale aboard for most of their shifts, with Brandon Sutter jumping on once in a while.

Columbus worries me right now. The Penguins looked to overmatch them in the last game. I think at this point I’d rather avoid most of their skaters, thinking that the Penguins close out the series tonight. I would definitely avoid the Brandon Dubinsky line for the Jackets, at least.

Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

Each team has won their home games so far this series, and in their trips to Minnesota, the Avalanche managed just 34 total shots on goal (one goal) over the two games.

Colorado is probably in a lot of trouble for this game. The Wild were able to limit the opportunities for Colorado when they hosted them in the regular season and that trend continued into the playoffs. There is no doubt that Colorado has the top end skill to fill the net on any team, but most nights, teams need an abundance of chances to covert on a few of them. Without Matt Duchene, the forward group just doesn’t have the depth right now to attack in waves and truly terrify the Wild defense.

Minnesota had a short-handed goal scored against them in their last game in Colorado, and the response by coach Mike Yeo was a bit expected, but odd: Yeo decided to go with the more traditional three forward-two defenseman power play than run a four-forward unit. That move also came with his team up a goal with less than five minutes left, though, so I’m not sure if that continues in this game. Yeo has remained consistent with his lines at even strength, though, and that’s good for DFS.

I think the Wild win this game and push it to a seventh game. I will say that DFSers should be worried about a possible return for Matt Duchene in this one. We likely won’t know until 30 minutes before the game starts and lineups will have locked by then, such is playoff hockey. I would lean Wild, and goalie Darcy Kuemper, for now.

San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings

The series has gone from what seemed a near-lock to be a sweep to very uncertain times for the Sharks, as they go into the Staples Center having lost the last two games.

The big news for San Jose is the availability of defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Vlasic took a hit to the head in the latter half of the first period of Game 5 and did not return for the rest of the game. He also did not practice with the team on their off-day yesterday. His availability is uncertain for Game 6 and it’s a situation where it will not be known until near game-time, again once lineups have already locked.

The first two games where San Jose outscored Los Angeles 13-5 seems to be a distant memory now. In the three games since, the Kings have outscored the Sharks 12-7. In the last game, for the first time in the series, the Kings held the Sharks off the board on the power play. If those early percentages that so heavily favoured the Sharks are now starting to tilt towards the Kings, this series should go seven games.

For the game tonight, especially with the prospect that Vlasic won’t play, I will lean the Kings. Los Angeles has all the momentum and may be playing against a weakened defense corps. I do think it is a low-scoring game, though.

Good luck!

Michael Clifford

Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions. Follow @SlimCliffy !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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