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When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
For tonight, it appears as though the Chicago Cubs-Cincinnati Reds game will be rained out. There is a call for rain/thunderstorms all night, and I’m not even taking the risk of taking players from this game.
Oakland Athletics (Gray) at Texas Rangers (Darvish)
Sonny Gray has pitched very well to start the year, though his two roughest outings have been his last two, one of which was against Texas (in Oakland). He’s priced out of the real first tier tonight (Darvish is in a tier of his own) so he’s not unreasonable. I am not risking him over other similar options, though. There are a couple of hitters I’m looking at against Darvish.
Brandon Moss (1B) – $6729
John Jaso (C) – $4305
Texas isn’t an ideal team to stack tonight, but Yu Darvish is obviously a big target. If DFSers can fit him in their budget tonight, he is a good anchor. The one caveat I will say is that his worst start of the year came in a series against Oakland a week ago. In fact, for his career, Darvish has a 4.32 ERA and 1.40 WHIP against the A’s (eight starts). I think I’d almost rather go with two pitchers in the next tier tonight than put all my eggs in the Darvish basket.
Alex Rios (OF) – $6408
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