When determining which way to go with my daily fantasy baseball lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Kansas City Royals (Ventura) at Baltimore Orioles (Jimenez)
Ventura has been very good for most of this year but let’s give it a little context, his two good starts were against Tampa Bay and Houston, both teams in the bottom half of runs scored in the American League this year (with Houston in last). I would hold off before getting over-excited about starting him in Camden Yards. There are a couple of hitters I want against Jimenez, though.
Eric Hosmer (1B) – $5246
Ubaldo Jimenez has had a pretty bad start to the year in just about every category imaginable. If he’s going to have a good start, against Kansas City sounds about right, so I don’t mind him as a target in large GPPs. I would not be using him in any other situation. I would also be a bit hesitant about high-priced hitters against Ventura, too.
