When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Kansas City Royals (Shields) at Cleveland Indians (Salazar)
James Shields has been his usual lights-out self so far this year, as he’s allowed just one earned run in three straight starts and sports a K:BB rate of 26:6. He’s typically a solid start and today is no different. The Royals offense is fairly cheap, so looking in their direction for a GPP stack isn’t a bad idea. Otherwise I would probably avoid them for today.
James Shields (SP) – $18,834
Eric Hosmer (1B) – $5078
Salazar is always one of the top upside plays any day that he pitches. The problem is he’s failed to reach five innings in two of his three starts. Regardless of the arm, I don’t typically like to rely on pitchers that might struggle to even qualify for a win. I will probably just avoid the Indians altogether tonight, avoiding their hitters against Shields
