Judging a pitcher by his ERA through the first three weeks of the season can be misleading. A 5.40+ ERA could mean a pitcher has had one bad start, like Bartolo Colon who has given up three or fewer runs in every game but one, getting shelled for nine runs against the Angels. Or it can belong to Ricky Nolasco, who has given up five runs in three of his four starts this season.
It’s important for fantasy baseball owners to separate the anecdotal starts, like Colon’s nine-run game, from trends, like Nolasco’s consistently poor outings. Let’s take a look at some fantasy players whose numbers don’t reflect how productive they have actually been that you should hold on to or even attempt to acquire in your league while their value appears lower than it truly is.
Bartolo Colon: As mentioned above, Colon has pitched pretty well for the Mets but his 5.40 ERA and 1.48 WHIP hardly reflect that. Allowing nine runs in five innings will do that to you. Of course, nine run games are a rarity, especially considering Colon gave up four homers in that game against the Angels. This is a pitcher who gave up 14 home runs last season and 17 home runs the year before so he’s not particularly prone to giving up the longball. If we remove that one five-inning outing, Colon has a 2.70 ERA over his other three starts with 15 strikeouts and just one walk over 20 innings. A perfect buy-low candidate.
| Innings | Earned Runs | Hits | Walks | Strikeouts | ERA | |
| vs LAA | 5 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 16.20 |
| Other 3 GS | 20 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 2.70 |
Chris Archer: Although his 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP are considerably better than Colon’s, Archer finds himself in a similar situation. He hasn’t just been good, he’s been lights out, but his ERA is middle-of-the-pack because of one bad game against the Orioles. Archer gave up seven runs and 13 baserunners over five innings pitched against the O’s, sending his ERA skyrocketing. Over his other three starts, the Tampa phenom has surrendered just three runs and 13 hits over 19.2 innings, striking out 15 (he also hasn’t given up a single home run this season). That gives him an ERA of 1.37 over his other three starts. If you can finagle Archer away from another owner, now would be the time to give it a try.
| Innings | Earned Runs | Hits | Walks | Strikeouts | ERA | |
| vs BAL | 5 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 12.60 |
| Other 3 GS | 19.2 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 1.37 |
Clay Buchholz: Buchholz has only made three starts so far but he got hammered in his 2014 debut, giving up six runs and 13 hits over just 4.1 innings to the Brewers. In two games since, he has given up just four earned runs with 12 strikeouts and just two walks over 12 innings, for an ERA of 3.00.
| Innings | Earned Runs | Hits | Walks | Strikeouts | ERA | |
| vs MIL | 4.1 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 12.56 |
| Other 2 GS | 12 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 3.00 |
CJ Wilson: Like Buchholz, Wilson’s first game of the season didn’t go as planned as he gave up six runs and 10 baserunners over 5.2 innings to the Mariners. In three starts since, Wilson has been lights out, giving up just six runs and striking out 20 over 20 innings pitched for an ERA of 2.70.
| Innings | Earned Runs | Hits | Walks | Strikeouts | ERA | |
| vs. SEA | 5.2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 9.54 |
| Other 3 GS | 20 | 6 | 17 | 7 | 20 | 2.70 |
Stephen Strasburg: Strasburg got beat around by the Marlins in his second start of the season, giving up six runs and 11 baserunners over just four innings. In his other four games, he has given up just 10 runs and posted 37 strikeouts over 23 innings for an ERA of 3.91. Not great, but much better than his season 5.33 ERA, especially given the insane strikeout numbers. If there was ever a time to find a top pitcher who’s a buy low candidate, this is it.
| Innings | Earned Runs | Hits | Walks | Strikeouts | ERA | |
| vs. MIA (4/15) | 4 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13.50 |
| Other 4 GS | 22.1 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 37 | 3.91 |
David Price: In his last start, Price gave up six runs and 11 baserunners over just five innings to the Yankees, sending his ERA up to 4.39. Over his previous three starts, however, Price had given up just seven runs over 21.2 innings, to go with 22 strikeouts and just two walks, for an ERA of 2.91.
| Innings | Earned Runs | Hits | Walks | Strikeouts | ERA | |
| vs NYY | 5 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 10.80 |
| Other 3 GS | 21.2 | 7 | 19 | 2 | 22 | 2.82 |
Jordan Zimmermann: Zimmermann had a truly woeful start against the Marlins in his second go of the season, allowing five runs and nine baserunners over just 1.2 innings. That will wreak havoc on an ERA. Because of that game, Zimm’s 3.92 ERA doesn’t reflect how great he’s been in his other three starts. In his other three games, Zimmermann only surrendered four runs over 19 innings for a 1.90 ERA, to go along with 22 strikeouts and just four walks.
| Innings | Earned Runs | Hits | Walks | Strikeouts | ERA | |
| vs MIA (4/14) | 1.2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 27.10 |
| Other 3 GS | 19 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 22 | 1.90 |
