When determining which way to go with my daily fantasy baseball lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with in my lineups.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Toronto Blue Jays (McGowan) at Baltimore Orioles (Tillman)
Note that there is a serious threat of rain for this one.
The Jays’ Dustin McGowan was very much roughed up in his first start of the season, though he did show flashes of that very good arm that had made him so highly-regarded in the past. All the same, I won’t be starting him in Baltimore. There are some hitters with a pretty good track record behind them against Chris Tillman, though.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) – $7120
Colby Rasmus (OF) – $4934
Tillman did fairly well against the Jays last year, posting a 3.31 ERA in five starts against them, notching 28 strikeouts in 32.2 innings. He’s a relatively cheap option for those looking for a high-upside play, perhaps for a GPP. There could be some nice value plays among the hitters, though.
Jonathan Schoop (2B) – $5329
