When determining which way to go with my daily fantasy baseball lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with in my lineups.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Baltimore Orioles (Chen) at New York Yankees (Nova)
It should probably go without saying, but not starting Wei-Yin Chen in Yankee Stadium is a given. In his career, his ERA in New York approaches 5.00 and for his career against New York in general, it’s over 5.50. There is a decent history between some players and Ivan Nova, though, so I don’t mind some of the Orioles hitters in this one. Note: weather forecasts have a very stiff breeze blowing out to center-right-center.
Nick Markakis (OF) – $5314
Chris Davis (1B) – $6443
Matt Wieters (C) – $6875
Like Chen, I’ll be staying away from Nova; he had good numbers against Baltimore last year but was blown up by them the year before. He seems a bit unstable to rely on. I’m not big on the Yankees bats in particular, but I might look for cheap options.
Brett Gardner (OF) – $6099
Brian McCann (C) – $5539
