I wanted to present a fantasy profile on Tampa Bay Rays shortstop prospect Hak-Ju Lee, but I thought it would be proper to give some context first.
When considering the impact that a rookie can have in fantasy baseball, one word should come to mind for fantasy owners: Minimal. Over the last four seasons, there have been 76 rookies aged 18-23 to have at least 75 at bats but no more than 400. Of those 76 rookies, this is how they performed:
- Just over 30-percent finished the season with at least a .270 batting average (23/76). Of those 23, 11 of them had fewer than 200 at bats.
- There were more rookies who hit .250 or less (26/76) than hit .270 or more.
- Only one had at least 20 home runs (Stanton, 2010) and only eight had at least 10 home runs. That means just over 10-percent of rookies had double-digit home runs with 400-or-fewer ABs (which would indicate June call ups).
- Only four (5.3-percent) had at least 50 RBIs, eight had at least 40 RBIs.
- Only two (2.6-percent) had at least 50 runs, eight had at least 40 runs.
- Only eight (10.5-percent) had at least 10 stolen bases.
In all, only Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, and Wil Myers were across-the-board contributors and even that’s a bit of a stretch. It’s probably safe to add Pedro Alvarez to that conversation to a degree (possibly Will Middlebrooks). Of all the players that might get called up in June, there will be one or two that can have large, sustained impacts on fantasy baseball teams. September call-ups are a whole other story.
This is all to say that expectations on rookies that get the call should be tempered. Guys like George Springer, Byron Buxton, and Oscar Taveras might be superstars, but it’s probably not going to be this year.
So with expectations tempered, owners can then look for players that might be able to impact them in a couple categories, instead of all five. One important category is speed, and one player that might be able to help owners a lot once (if) he gets the call this year is Hak-Ju Lee.
Background
Lee was signed as a 17-year-old out of South Korea by the Chicago Cubs in 2008 and was in their Minor League system in 2009. The reason it took so long was because he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery, a peculiar injury for a 17-year-old infielder.
Nevertheless, Lee immediately made an impact at Low-A ball, hitting .330 in 264 at-bats and stealing 25 bases. It was much of the same next year at A-ball, hitting .282 and stealing 32 bases. He managed a 9.4-percent walk rate over those first two years in the minor leagues, relocating from Jeju, South Korea to Boise, Idaho as a teenager. Impressive indeed.
Lee was part of the trade for Matt Garza between the Cubs and the Rays in January of 2011. He would rake in High-A to start off 2011 with a .318 batting average and 28 steals in 400 at bats. He stumbled a bit when he was promoted to Double-A by hitting just .190, but still walked 11 times in 114 plate appearances.
Lee’s appearance at Double-A the following year went much better, hitting. 261 with a .336 on base percentage (stealing 37 bases in the meantime). It appeared that with maybe another year of repetitions in the minors, Lee would be on track to join the Rays for September call-ups at the end of the 2013 season.
This changed at the start of 2013.
In late April of last year, Lee was involved in a collision at second base that tore ligaments in his left knee that would end his season. His appearance at the Major League level would be delayed.
Lee was at Spring Training with the Rays but was never a threat to make the team. He was sent down after just nine games and 13 at bats (he did have five hits and a walk, FYI). Lee is still on the Rays 40-man roster though, so it seems inevitable that he gets the call. Whether it’s in June or September is another conversation for another day.
Fantasy Relevance
There’s an old adage that I have no idea where it came from and that is “speed never slumps.”
It’s a good motto to live by in fantasy. Sure, Jacoby Ellsbury might hit .190 for a month. But he’s also a threat to steal 10 bases in that month, too. When more one-dimensional hitters like Marlon Byrd go in a .190 slump, it’s a long way to the bottom.
Lee has the ability to get on base – his 1.73 K:BB ratio between Double-A and Triple-A is solid enough – and has a lot of speed to burn. One thing that the Tampa Bay Rays have been missing since the days of Carl Crawford is a guy at the top of the order who can get on first and steal second. Desmond Jennings was supposed to be that guy and he’s been average when given the opportunity.
For dynasty owners, he should probably be gone already. But for everyone else, this is a guy who can steal a base probably every three games or so. Owners that might be fretting over Billy Hamilton (don’t drop him) or Jean Segura (he has had shoulder soreness of late) might want to keep the name Hak-Ju Lee in mind. Once he’s in the Majors, he’ll be off to the races at a very thin position.
*as always, thanks to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference for their invaluable resources
** note: Lee has been dealing with a calf strain of late:
#Rays say SS prospect Hak-Ju Lee will miss 3-4 weeks with left calf strain, unrelated to left knee injury/surgery from 2013
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) March 24, 2014
