When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with in my lineups.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Minnesota Twins (Gibson) at Cleveland Indians (Carrasco)
The case of Kyle Gibson is rather interesting. In limited innings last year (51), he was about equally effective again lefties and righties (which is to say not very effective). One thing he did do was walk a TON of left-handed batters. In fact, he walked 15 of them in 143 plate appearances (10.5-percent) while he walked just five righties in 95 plate appearances (5.3-percent). I would avoid starting him today but will be interested in Indians lefties. Same goes for Twins lefties.
Joe Mauer (1B) – $7344
Oswaldo Arcia (OF) – $5646
Carlos Carrasco is a must-avoid as far as pitchers go. As I mentioned, I do like lefties today against Gibson because he’s not shown himself to be a strikeout pitcher at the Major League level and walks a ton of LHB.
Jason Kipnis (2B) – $7194
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS) – $5536
Michael Brantley (OF) – $6483
