It could happen sooner rather than later but the man dubbed “RoboStamkos” could be playing for the Tampa Bay Lightning slightly before the Olympic break. The question becomes what does that mean for Steven Stamkos owners. Scratch that. The real burning question is now what happens to those players who benefited from his absence?
Working on Dobberhockey’s excellent Frozen Pool platform, I see line frequencies all over the place in addition to what teams have done over a day, week, or even month. It is quite the handy hockey resource for fantasy owners. Right now, this is what Tampa’s lines look like at even strength.
Even Strength Top Nine:
Forwards Usage from 1/20 to 1/27
| 1. | 36.4% | JOHNSON,TYLER – PALAT,ONDREJ – ST. LOUIS,MARTIN |
| 2. | 32.7% | FILPPULA,VALTTERI – KILLORN,ALEX – PURCELL,EDWARD |
| 3. | 16.8% | BROWN,J.T. – KUCHEROV,NIKITA – THOMPSON,NATE |
What do the frequency percentages mean? That is typically what percentage these players are out on the ice together. Basically what you see above is the four forward lines and three defensive pairings. Do note that there is almost a 1A and 1B line combination setup as the first two lines are fairly close to each other in terms of how often they are used. Power plays can get a bit more jumbled so typically I use even strength to more accurately gauge potential line changes or fantasy shifts. Keep in mind, not everyone does this.
That first line has done quite a bit of damage as they are in the top three over the last month as far as line combination point production. Only the John Tavares line on Long Island and the Phil Kessel line in Toronto have been more dependable.
For all the pomp and circumstance though, ultimately Stamkos is going to make his return very soon. If he does not return before the break, it will likely be the first game back when everyone comes back. This is going to change the lines some. Based on information we have been gathering, this is what those forward lines could look like.
Tampa Bay Plus Stamkos:
- Palat-Stamkos-St. Louis
- Filppula-Killorn-Purcell
- Johnson-Kucherov-Brown
- Crombeem-Malone-Thompson
Again this is up for much debate. There is a growing possibility that Tyler Johnson could be bumped all the way down to the third line and then be forced to play left-wing. One thing appears to be certain and that is Johnson will not be on the first line when Stamkos returns. The only doubt is whether he is just outside the top six or in the top six. His Calder Trophy candidacy likely hangs in the balance.
What is clear is that Stamkos practiced full contact on Tuesday for 20 minutes which means this clock is ticking. Your fantasy lineups are going to be impacted either right before the break or after. It is better to be prepared for it now rather than when it is too late. This type of fantasy hockey reshuffling only happens every so often like when Sidney Crosby came back from his various injuries. Being aware of changes is pivotal.
