Daily Fantasy Football: DraftStreet Roster Building for the Super Bowl

The folks at DraftStreet were kind enough to provide one last slice of 2013-14 degenerate pie by hosting a Super Bowl Freeroll GPP tournament. It’s simple to play, it’s fake football and most importantly, it’s free. The format is basic; you use your allotted funds ($100K) to build your best team of six players from the Super Bowl. The top four slots will pay out cash monies, while another 350 plus winners will get a voucher for another DFS game on the site.

Sign up for DraftStreet to create your own daily fantasy football lineup

Since most of you will already be diving off of the degenerate high board this weekend by wagering on the length of the national anthem, how many bad Michael Bay movie trailers we’ll see and what color of deep V neck T-shirt Bruno Mars will be wearing at halftime, what’s playing in one more free game of fantasy football going to hurt?

*Projections based on DraftStreet scoring which is .5 PPR

In case you’ve been getting your news from Marshawn Lynch this week, you’re aware that this is the first cold weather Super Bowl ever. We’ve all been bludgeoned with Manning’s deep freeze bugaboos over the past decade, but this is arguably the best pass defense he’s faced in his postseason history. Over his 22 postseason games, Manning has thrown for more than two touchdowns only six times and in only three of his past 15.

The last time Seattle allowed three touchdown passes was in the Divisional round of 2012 and they allowed only two 300 yard passers all season. Only Matt Schaub reached 20 fantasy points in a game against them this season, so this is as bad of a matchup as can be, even for the Zeus-like entity known as 2013 Peyton Manning. Since he costs one third of your salary, play for arbitrage points by taking some of his targets instead.

Denver moves Decker and Thomas around a decent amount, so both should find their way into the clutches of Richard Sherman at some point, but the rest of the Seahawks secondary is pretty formidable as well. After losing Brandon Browner to suspension, Byron Maxwell has played lights out and will likely see the most of Demaryius Thomas on the left side of the offense. Thomas has been scorching, catching six or more passes in five of past six while scoring a touchdown in four straight games. He still easily has the highest ceiling of any Bronco receiver.

Decker has been a complete mixed bag while Welker has been in the lineup. While has five games with eight or more receptions, he also has five with four or fewer. He’s also only scored in five of the 15 games that Welker has been active, while Welker himself has scored in nine different contests. He’s fairly priced given his ceiling fo rthose who can’t squeeze Demaryius into their lineups.

Welker will draw the lesser of the Seahawks defenders this week by playing inside against Walter Thurmond. Slot receivers have had at least a sliver of recent success against Seattle; just two weeks ago Marques Colston caught seven balls for 85 yards and a score from the slot. Welker has topped 80 yards just three times this season, so the mountaintop is more like a grassy knoll,  but he stands to draw the most targets this weekend.

Julius Thomas gets perhaps the toughest draw, as he’ll see a ton of Kam Chancellor and K.J. Wright, who have been playing tremendous in coverage as of late. Thomas has scored in ten of his 16 games this season, but Seattle has allowed only six tight ends to reach the paint on the season. Only two tight ends have eclipsed 50 yards receiving in the past 11 games versus the Seahawks and it hasn’t been an easy slate of tight ends for them to defend, either. They had seven games against top eight scoring tight ends this season (Jimmy Graham twice, Vernon Davis three times, Greg Olsen and Tony Gonzalez) and in those seven games they allowed a total of three or fewer receptions in six, only one to reach 50 yards and only two touchdowns.

Seattle can be run on, especially away from Century Link. They allowed over 100 team rushing yards in five games on the road and over 130 yards in four of those. Moreno is nursing a rib injury, but Manning puts his backs in great positions to not only score, but also catch passes. Moreno had 11 games of three of more receptions this year and Montee Ball had six. In a game where Denver will have their hands full on the edges, either back can boost their performance by tacking on catch points.

Wilson has struggled to find fantasy success through the air over the past six games, throwing for fewer than 215 yards and one or fewer touchdowns in all six. The silver lining there is that five of those six games were against defenses that ranked inside the top nine in passing yards per attempt, so he was facing extremely stiff competition. If you’re going to use a quarterback, he’s over $10K cheaper than Manning and comes with the added potential of using his legs for cheap points.

Denver has been fantastic against the run of late, allowing only 70 rushing yards per game over the past month of football on a meager 3.6 YPC. While that is slightly discouraging, it shouldn’t push you away from feeling comfortable using Lynch. We know that Seattle wants to run the football, they run the ball 52.7 percent of their offensive plays, most in the league. We also know that the way to hang with Denver is by shortening the game. The last thing we know is that the postseason is where Beast Mode really shines. Look at Lynch’s playoff game log as a Seahawk.

Outside of one dud in which he was injured and the Seahawks got trampled, Lynch has been a postseason dynamo and will undoubtedly be the focal point of Seattle having success this weekend. He’ll be the consensus Seattle play, but one that is too hard to leave out.

Ambiguity and low volume make any of the Seattle receivers tough plays, but they will likely determine a lot of success in tournament like this. Unfortunately, deciding which one to use will be a crapshoot. Harvin will be the most enticing play and will be in the most lineups, but his usage comes with a ton of uncertainty still. Denver is still without Chris Harris, who covered the slot the most during the regular season. In the playoffs, Champ Bailey has been handling that role, so Harvin will have an opportunity to make plays. We still don’t know what kind of creativity Seattle has in store for him and his impact can come still from elsewhere, so he’s usable as a wild card.

Tate will see a ton of Denver’s best corner, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, so he’s completely avoidable. Baldwin has had over 60 percent of his production come from playing inside, so the move to the outside doesn’t bode well although he will have Tony Carter mostly opposing him. Denver did allow eight top top12 weeks to tight ends this season, and their linebackers are most vulnerable in coverage, so Miller is my favorite near punt play.

This isn’t an easy event to win with so much anticipated overlap, but it’s a free lottery ticket on the final weekend of football for the next six months. I may consider swapping Demaryius Thomas in for Russell Wilson before Sunday and decide to go without a quarterback, but here’s an optimal team based on my projected points.

Good luck this weekend and enjoy the offseason. The XN stable of writers will still be working for you throughout, so make sure to stick with us as we prepare for the 2014 season starting Monday.

*Stats used were provided from ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com.

Rich Hribar Fantasy Football Analyst

Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. Follow @LordReebs

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