I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily fantasy hockey lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.
There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.
Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.
Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.
Games are color-coded as follows:
Green means load up. Yellow means grab a couple of players. Red means value plays only.
Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets
Washington has lost three in a row and they don’t have a single power play goal to show for it in the meantime. When this team doesn’t score with the man advantage, they have a hard time winning games. To compound the problem for them tonight, the Caps are 1-3-1 in five road games since Christmas and have averaged just two goals for per game over their last four. Goaltender Philipp Grubauer has been the main reason why this team has been able to pick up points lately, as he’s allowed just five goals against in his last three games.
The Blue Jackets have been on quite a tear to start 2014, going 5-1 so far and not allowing more than three goals in any game. In goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky’s two games at home since returning from injury, he’s only allowed two goals against while his team scored three power play goals in those games. The penalty kill has been a bit shaky in the last few games, which is just a return to their form for most of their season to date.
These two teams have met twice this year with the Caps taking both games, scoring eight goals along the way. In both those games, Bobrovsky was the starter. With the way Grubauer has been playing lately and the Caps’ penchant for winning against Columbus, I think the Caps take this game but it will be close (and probably not very high-scoring).
|
Top RW Value |
Top LW Value |
Top C Value |
Top D Value |
Bargain Bin |
|
(CBJ) $8600 |
Marcus Johansson $8800 |
(CBJ) $6850 |
Ryan Murray $7300 |
(WSH) |
Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks
The Ducks are on a historic winning pace this year, as their current win rate has them on pace for 129 points as a team. Anaheim is also coming off a 9-1 dismantling of the Vancouver Canucks, a game in which the Ducks score six goals on the power play. While they still haven’t lost in regulation at home yet this year, the Ducks have one regulation loss on the road in the last 7+ weeks. One of their road wins in that stretch was a 3-2 shootout win in Chicago at the start of December.
The ‘Hawks have lost five of seven games to start 2014 (2-1-4) and have scored just nine goals in those five losses. Not for a lack of trying; Chicago has averaged nearly 36 shots on goal in their last five losses, but have shot just over 5-percent along the way. The Hawks’ power play has gone just 16.7-percent in their last seven games, a mark that is well below their talent level.
It’s tough to bet against the Ducks right now considering the tear that they’ve been on. Also, goaltender Corey Crawford has lost each of his five starts since returning from injury and he’s expected to get the nod tonight in goal.
I don’t expect a high-scoring game, much like Washington/Columbus, but I do expect Anaheim to take the game tonight.
|
Top RW Value |
Top LW Value |
Top C Value |
Top D Value |
Bargain Bin |
|
Jakov Silfverberg (ANA) $8650 |
(CHI) $7400 |
(CHI) $7600
|
(CHI) $10,150 |
(ANA) $7350 |
*Note: I’m personally not playing any games today. Both games could be low-scoring toss-ups so it’s just not a good night for DFS with only two games available. If you’re playing Fri/Sat games, these still aren’t great games to pick from.
Good Luck!
